UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

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My favorite underdog was Ellenberger at +160.

ELLENBERGER SAID PERRY IS A LOT DIFFERENT IN THE FIRST ROUND THAN HE IS IN THE SECOND SUGGESTING ELLENBERGER THINKS HE HAS BETTER CARDIO, ALSO, IT COULD SUGGEST ELLENBERGER WILL INDEED MIX IN TAKEDOWNS. MAYBE HE WANTS TO WRESTLE PERRY IN ROUND 1 TO TAKE HIS POWER AWAY AND THEN LAY HIM DOWN IN RD 2 WHERE THE SPEED MAY NOT SHOW. IN ANOTHER INTERVIEW ELLENBERGER SAID PERRY IS PREDICTABLE AND THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF HOLES, TO ME IT SEEMS LIKE HES ELUDING TO THE TAKEDOWN BUT NOT TRYING TO GIVE AWAY TOO MUCH FROM THE WAY HE SAYS IT. HE DIDNT SAY THERE ARE A LOT OF HOLES IN HIS STRIKNG AND STRIKING WASNT EXACTLY THE CONTEXT OF THE CONVERSATION. IN THIS INTERVIEW HE ALSO SAYS HIS CONDITIONNG IS ON ANOTHER LEVEL, CONFIRMING MY EARLIER THOUGHT, AND HES BEEN DOING CARDIO WORKOUTS DESIGNED TO MAKE HIM FAIL. HE SAYS HES HIS OWN WORSE ENEMY, HIS OWN TOUGHEST OPPONENT AND HE EXPECTS A LOT FROM HIMSELF COME FIGHT TIME.

I THINK ELLENBERGER GET THE TAKEDOWN WHEN HE WANTS IT AND PERRY WILL GIVE ELLENBERGER THE OPPORTUNITY TO COUNTER OFTEN PREVENTING ELLENBERGER FROM BEING LOW VOLUME. ELLENBERGER HAS SERIOUS POWER. PERRY IS INEXPERIENCED AND PREDICTABLE, ELLENBERGER SHOULD BE READY FOR WHATEVER PUNCH PERRY THROWS. ELLENBERGERS LAST 8 WOULD PUT 4 LOSSES OR MORE ON ANYONE AND THE STRIKERS HE FACED TRIED THEIR BEST TO PREVENT ELLENBERGER FROM COUNTERING. ELLENBERGER WATCHED THE JOUBAN FIGHT.

LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ELLENBERGER, THINKS HE WINS BY KO BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DEC. PEOPLE PLAYING UNDER 1.5 THINKING THEY'RE SAFE COULD GET BLINDSIDED, BE CAREFUL AND DONT OVERPLAY THE UNDER OR ELLENBERGER/PERRY RD 1.

I'm on the under at dog odds , if Ellenberger starts to wrestle and grind i'll feel stupid
 
First time on here and trying to understand the smartest picks for this FN. Was 1 fight off an 8 fight multi the last time I did UFC betting (fuck you Dan Henderson). Correct me if I'm wrong at any point here, as I say this is all very new to me.

From what I can tell so far Sandoval v Schnell gives the edge to the Schnellfish as a submission guy, because Sandoval showed submission weakness in his fight v Reis and the reason Font beat him was because he'd never been tapped.

Dandois v Davis looks like a mess that could go either way, as Davis did get tapped out but by way of wrestlefuck where Dandois is a judo/BJJ girl.

Barberena v the Proctologist will likely end before the final whistle but it's tough to say who takes it given Barberena is back at Welterweight and Proctor is a goddamn sin wave.

I haven't seen much of Jessica Penne so I'm gonna on assumptions that may be completely wrong, but she has the exact same reach as Maryna Moroz so she should decision Danielle Devito easily just like Moroz did.

Hot Sauce has never been tapped out and Michael McBride has only ever won by submission so this should be an easy win for Holtzman

Moreno v Ortiz appears to be a pretty clear pick 'em, as does Platinum v Ellenberger

Alvey has insane TDD and Leites can't do much on the feet so that should be an easy win

Stevie Ray has shown a weakness to submissions in past (4) and although he hasn't had to do it in 5 years that is Lauzon's speciality so should go his way.

Wineland has won 4/5 of his UFC fights by KO/TKO and Dodson has never even been finished, let alone knocked out, so Dodson is probably the safest pick here

Only thing you can say for sure about OSP v de Lima is that it will finish in the first round, because all of de Lima's fights do win or lose

Iaquinta has only ever lost by submission and Sanchez hasn't tapped anyone out since 2004 so easy Al win

Cub should dominate Lobov but he looked awful at the stare down so I'm guessing it's best to stay the fuck away there

if only things was that easy :D
 
From what I can tell so far Sandoval v Schnell gives the edge to the Schnellfish as a submission guy, because Sandoval showed submission weakness in his fight v Reis and the reason Font beat him was because he'd never been tapped.

Being tapped by Reis doesn't exactly mean you have weak sub defense. Schnell got KOd up a weight class on a couple days notice by one of the best strikers at BW. Can't take away much from either fight, especially with it being their debuts.

The way I see it, Schnell has the edge wherever it goes. Sandoval is your standard TAM package, great wrestling and scrambles with somewhat limited striking. On the feet Schnell is much more technical and dynamic with a 6" reach advantage to boot. He's very active off his back always threatening subs until he can get back to his feet and at FLW it's harder to hold someone down. While I favour Schnell I do recognize Sand's paths to victory which would be lnp or KO via the overhand he's constantly throwing, neither very likely imo.

Barberena v the Proctologist will likely end before the final whistle but it's tough to say who takes it given Barberena is back at Welterweight and Proctor is a goddamn sin wave.
It's actually Proctor moving up to WW, Barb's been there a while. I'd say the price is about right at -300


I haven't seen much of Jessica Penne so I'm gonna on assumptions that may be completely wrong, but she has the exact same reach as Maryna Moroz so she should decision Danielle Devito easily just like Moroz did.
Terrible logic, Penne has no stand up. If Danielle wasn't so inactive I'd play her fairly big.

As for the rest, stats aren't everything, the style matchup is what matters.

I'm digging all the puns
 
As for the rest, stats aren't everything, the style matchup is what matters.

Admittedly I haven't seen a lot of any of those fighters bar Danielle Sproles and the Barber.

What would you say are the safest three bets on the card outside the main event? Lauzon, Dodson and Iaquinta?
 
Admittedly I haven't seen a lot of any of those fighters bar Danielle Sproles and the Barber.

What would you say are the safest three bets on the card outside the main event? Lauzon, Dodson and Iaquinta?

I'd say Iaquinta, Barberena, and Holtzman.
 
I really feel this card .. 10u risk

4u Holtzman + Leites = 9.8u

By the way im surprised nobody has mentioned how few punches Alvey throws.. he always seems to be looking for a big K0 punch which isn't always there. I think his productivity will cost him in this fight and Leites will win comfortably.

1u Sandoval + Perry + Wineland + Pezao ( De Lima) + Lauzon/Ray O2.5 = 49.5u


0.5u Penne + OSP/Lima O1.5 + Lauzon + Davis + Barb = 9.4u


0.4u Swanson ITD + Perry ITD + Lima ITD + Lauson DEC = 15.9u

0.5u Davis/Dandois doesn't go distance + Barb ITD + Ortiz ITD + Berger/Perry O1.5 = 25.2u

0.1u Cub Sub Rd4 + Leites/Alvey doesnt go distance + Davis/Dandois doesnt go distance + Barb ITD = 49.3u

0.5u Holtzman ITD + Ortiz DEC + Leites + Lauzon = 13.5u


Thought I'd throw a few singles in this event...

0.5u Diego 'Brain Damage' Sanchez = 2u
0.5u Pezao Lima = 1.2u
0.5u Davis ITD = 1.25u
0.5u Lauzon = 1.3u
0.5u Wineland = 2u
0.5u Sandoval Dec = 1.3u
 
Cos hes a beast and this is a big step down for him. Hes been fighting athletic monsters joe is not. Joes first fight at ww and he looked terrible at weigh ins he should be at lw and hes been out 18 months. Ok you could say barb should be at lw but i disagree he can get away with ww due to his amazing beard and cardio. Joe has neither intangible. Joe struggles with pressure fighters and barb will be in his face for the whole fight.
 
Current leans, bets to follow...
Schnell
Schnell/Sandoval u2.5
Holtzman ITD
Leites
Ellenberger
Lauzon
Wineland
St Preux ITD
Sanchez
Cub ITD
 
Trying to find the balls to pull the trigger on Artem for 600 at Unibet while it's that high.
 
Trying to find the balls to pull the trigger on Artem for 600 at Unibet while it's that high.

Please don't do it.
I don't care how high he gets and how much I value money, I hate Artem so much it overrides all value plays.
 
i dont see any value on artem i would not touch him even at +1000 =/
 
i dont see any value on artem i would not touch him even at +1000 =/

Jeez I think Cub dusts him too but I can't get on board with you guys thinking this is THAT lopsided. Cub coming off a war, willing to trade, etc.
 
The Matt Schnell support is very confusing to me.

Rob Font had his back with a full body lock triangle in 80 seconds in their fight, then rocked him with a teep to the face, and pummeled him for the KO in the first round.

I realize that fight was at BW and this is at FW, but Sandoval will have NO trouble taking this fight down whenever he wants and controlling Schnell on the mat.

It should also be noted that the beating Schnell took from Font was only 4.5 months ago.
 
dod/wineland O2.5 +225.

Is wineland coming into the cage in a wheelchair?
 
dod/wineland O2.5 +225.

Is wineland coming into the cage in a wheelchair?

Eddie is reckless and Dodson has a big speed edge and huge power at this weight class (just giving some sort of rationale for it).

All that said, you are spot on, that line is absolutely bananas. There's no way it should be that high, not even close. I took it at +180, +225 is bonkers.
 
The Matt Schnell support is very confusing to me.

Rob Font had his back with a full body lock triangle in 80 seconds in their fight, then rocked him with a teep to the face, and pummeled him for the KO in the first round.

I realize that fight was at BW and this is at FW, but Sandoval will have NO trouble taking this fight down whenever he wants and controlling Schnell on the mat.

It should also be noted that the beating Schnell took from Font was only 4.5 months ago.

Rob font is a big bw Sandoval is a midget. And while he has the wrestling advantage he will not be able to control schnell on the mat. He also slows down so his ability to hit td's and control will be diminished by r2. The only way i see sandoval winning is by landing an overhand and most likely i needs to be r1. Watch his tuf fights he butchers a bjj bb on the mat and he has a decent triangle attempt on elliott followed by a tight as fuck armbar attempt. Schnell is dangerous off his back.
 
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