UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

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ChoKuRei said:
Junior tkos stipe this time

Maia dec victory over jorge

Joanna UD Andrade

Jotko sub

Not my bets just my predictions. Still trying to decide who i will lay the juice on, either doing a single 2k bet or a $1500 2 man parlay..

Juicing Joannas line

Juicing maias line

Or joanna maia parlay
Or joannna/jotko parlay
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Well Joanna isn't going to win so don't do this my friend.
 
King_Brown said:
Seems like money is coming in on Coulter across the bookies. Need to wait with my Sherman bet. If these people just knew...
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Where did you find Coulter tape?

Definitely asking this question way too many times but I just really want to see some of the dude's fights
 
Maia with 3.0 skills and Mas still telling it's not going more than 2 rounds. I'm feeling kind of comfortable again for predicting Maia by submission R2 and the prop bets I made accordingly.
 
Antagonist88 said:
Where did you find Coulter tape?

Definitely asking this question way too many times but I just really want to see some of the dude's fights
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scroll back few pages here I posted his boxing video. You don't need to see more. He has no ground game or wrasslin so just watch his striking. Any trained eye sees that he will get steamrolled in this fight.
 
Orion said:


- Says Maia looks fragile, thinks he's cutting a lot of weight because he used to do the same at 155
- Feels Maia is by far the #1 contender
- The usual high self confidence
- Says the fight won't make it to the 3rd round
- Feels like everyone wants to be his best friend now that he beat Cerrone. If you aint on the bandwagon before this fight, you're getting charged for interviews after he wins
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lol he also dropped "talking to the fake media"
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Since it is getting attention in here and I don't think Luca touted either side... Casey is the other fighter than Maia I am considering going huge on. Things holding me back from going huge are:

It's WMMA
It's Courtney Casey...
Fight pass = No live bet for me
JAG should have "home" advantage with it being in Texas
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those are pretty good reasons not to go huge IMO.
 
Subli said:
Hello guys. A little off topic, but can any of the euro folks list me the books that offer live betting for MMA ?

I currently use Unibet and Bet365, but would like to spread my BR on a couple more books.
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Paddy Power for me. Tried a few others but they seem to freeze the lines more often during the fights.
 
King_Brown said:
scroll back few pages here I posted his boxing video. You don't need to see more. He has no ground game or wrasslin so just watch his striking. Any trained eye sees that he will get steamrolled in this fight.
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Did see that when I was looking for tape, but tough to make that conclusion based on a boxing fight and one kimura. I'm on Sherman too so hope you're right.

And thanks OneTrueKing. Really not a lot of footage on this guy, but also just not a lot of cage time I guess
 
Really considering going even bigger on Maia than I originally planned to. All these interviews from Mas.. whiners usually lose the fight. Plus Mas beating three mid level strikers is a good smoke screen. Public has been fooled.
 
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/11686-newcomer-breakdown-rashad-coulter
Antagonist88 said:
Did see that when I was looking for tape, but tough to make that conclusion based on a boxing fight and one kimura. I'm on Sherman too so hope you're right.

And thanks OneTrueKing. Really not a lot of footage on this guy, but also just not a lot of cage time I guess
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tapology cap the fight. all his opponents get ko in rd 1. v poor. hes a blown up middleweight. only went full time because he lost his job. didn't start fighting until 29. short notice replacement. look auful in the footage there is. sherman is tough. power and nice leg kick with his combos. has the chin incase he is caught. its not like sherman is 1.2 or something. hes 1.7 in some books now. more than good enough even if this guy turns out to be decent somehow. i mean how seriosly was he taking his training in 2016 putting on 40 lb in 6 months .
 
TheOneTrueKing said:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/11686-newcomer-breakdown-rashad-coulter

tapology cap the fight. all his opponents get ko in rd 1. v poor. hes a blown up middleweight. only went full time because he lost his job. didn't start fighting until 29. short notice replacement. look auful in the footage there is. sherman is tough. power and nice leg kick with his combos. has the chin incase he is caught. its not like sherman is 1.2 or something. hes 1.7 in some books now. more than good enough even if this guy turns out to be decent somehow
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Dude shut up already ur making me put my whole bankroll on Sherman.. please................. stop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
King_Brown said:
Really considering going even bigger on Maia than I originally planned to. All these interviews from Mas.. whiners usually lose the fight. Plus Mas beating three mid level strikers is a good smoke screen. Public has been fooled.
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Agreed!

I always find myself looking back to what Maia did to Condit. Condit has a legit ground game and Maia made him look like it was his first week rolling.

Mas has good takedown defense and boxing but he’s more than likely going to hit the mat once within 15 minutes and when he does he’s in trouble.
 
While I am on the Betting Theory topic, let me share with you YOLO and lotto ticket parlay bettors why you are losing EV doing this. Not only those massive parlays, but any parlays going over +200 IMO are not optimal mathematically.

Variance is the devil. VARIANCE IS THE DEVIL!! Chant it with me my friends, until it is deeply embedded in your subconsiousness. Please allow me to illustrate you a simple example.

You have 100 dollars to invest for 10 years.

Option 1 is to gain 15% the first year, 5% the second, 15% the third, 5% the fourth, etc etc.

Option 2 is to get consistent 10% every year.

Which do you choose? Think bout it for a second.

Most people will think "well they are basically the same so its a matter of personal preference".

WRONG.

Option 2 is better. Why? BECAUSE VARIANCE IS THE DEVIL.

Lets do some back of the envelope math.

Option 1 is 100 x 1.05 x 1.15 x 1.05 x 1.15 etc etc.
Or, 100 x (1.05)^5 x (1.15)^5 = $256.71

Option 2 is 100 x (1.1)^10 = $259.37

Calculating simple interest the two are equal. But when compounding comes into effect, less variance is superior. And compounding definitely comes into play when betting because we are increasing and decreasing our unit amounts depending on our results.

Big odds parlays = variance = devil.

#QED
 
cagebrain said:
While I am on the Betting Theory topic, let me share with you YOLO and lotto ticket parlay bettors why you are losing EV doing this. Not only those massive parlays, but any parlays going over +200 IMO are not optimal mathematically.

Variance is the devil. VARIANCE IS THE DEVIL!! Chant it with me my friends, until it is deeply embedded in your subconsiousness. Please allow me to illustrate you a simple example.

You have 100 dollars to invest for 10 years.

Option 1 is to gain 15% the first year, 5% the second, 15% the third, 5% the fourth, etc etc.

Option 2 is to get consistent 10% every year.

Which do you choose? Think bout it for a second.

Most people will think "well they are basically the same so its a matter of personal preference".

WRONG.

Option 2 is better. Why? BECAUSE VARIANCE IS THE DEVIL.

Lets do some back of the envelope math.

Option 1 is 100 x 1.05 x 1.15 x 1.05 x 1.15 etc etc.
Or, 100 x (1.05)^5 x (1.15)^5 = $256.71

Option 2 is 100 x (1.1)^10 = $259.37

Calculating simple interest the two are equal. But when compounding comes into effect, less variance is superior. And compounding definitely comes into play when betting because we are increasing and decreasing our unit amounts depending on our results.

Big odds parlays = variance = devil.

#QED
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thats one expert analysis. @Joseph Budden what about adding this dude in our Betting hall of Fame. He seems to be making profit and knows his stuff. Just promote him.
 
LOL. Benitez is 1.7 at Sport Bet and Barz 2.6 at William Hill. Bet both sides and its guaranteed profit haha. Lifehacks ftw!
 
Can anyone find out of Sherman u1.5 is one of Lucas plays? I think has been on 3 other 1.5s recently. It is kinda getting hammered. Glad I got in before the movement. Tempted on adding more
 
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