UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

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- Clearing his mind of any title talk. Just wants to focus on Masvidal
- Possibly his best weight cut yet. Feels good
- Doesn't see why people think Masvidal is the worst possible style matchup for him. Maybe people see something he doesn't
- Is concentrating on winning as opposed to trying to make a statement with a finish / avoiding the decision. Says he tried to make a statement against Jake Shields but it just makes you lose focus. Will do what he did the last few fights instead which is just go out there and do his best
 


- Doesnt mind being on the prelims
- Originally planned to chill out for a few months longer but they brought him a high profile name so he decided to fight
- Coaches at ATT have been spread thin prepping for 211 with so many fighters on the card. Gym is packed open to close
- Moved back to Lousiana for family. Spent 8 weeks in Florida at ATT prepping
 
cagebrain said:
While I am on the Betting Theory topic, let me share with you YOLO and lotto ticket parlay bettors why you are losing EV doing this. Not only those massive parlays, but any parlays going over +200 IMO are not optimal mathematically.

Variance is the devil. VARIANCE IS THE DEVIL!! Chant it with me my friends, until it is deeply embedded in your subconsiousness. Please allow me to illustrate you a simple example.

You have 100 dollars to invest for 10 years.

Option 1 is to gain 15% the first year, 5% the second, 15% the third, 5% the fourth, etc etc.

Option 2 is to get consistent 10% every year.

Which do you choose? Think bout it for a second.

Most people will think "well they are basically the same so its a matter of personal preference".

WRONG.

Option 2 is better. Why? BECAUSE VARIANCE IS THE DEVIL.

Lets do some back of the envelope math.

Option 1 is 100 x 1.05 x 1.15 x 1.05 x 1.15 etc etc.
Or, 100 x (1.05)^5 x (1.15)^5 = $256.71

Option 2 is 100 x (1.1)^10 = $259.37

Calculating simple interest the two are equal. But when compounding comes into effect, less variance is superior. And compounding definitely comes into play when betting because we are increasing and decreasing our unit amounts depending on our results.

Big odds parlays = variance = devil.

#QED
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But I love lotto tickets!

I've hit on a few lately. I'm really trying to do more straight bets and 2-3 leg parlays.
 
ChoKuRei said:
I respect your input, could you possibly give me any brief insight you might have in regards to JJ/Andrade? Only pick i feel confident about
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Explain why you confident in JJ first then I'll help you out.
 
Joseph Budden said:
That post is too mathematical and I love the devil but @cagebrain has been worthy. But he must present to the thread an #elite underdog pick or sends me dick pics
Click to expand...
#Elite underdog pick of the year is Damien "The Babadook" Maia

If it's in a cage, or if it's in a nook
you can't get rid of the Babadook.
A rumbling sound, and you'll be shook
you better run, he'll hold you in his hooks.
ba-ba-ba-dook-dook-dook...
The cage door opens
Masvidals honestly hopin'
that he won't hear his sound
hat's when Maia knows that he's around.
So close your eyes and count to ten
better hope you don't wake up again.
'Cause if it's in a cage, or if it's in a nook
you can't get rid of the Babadook
BABA DOOK DOOK DOOK

A "Gray's Sports Almanac" News Stoy

Damien "The Babadook" Maia has been eating the souls of UFC strikers ever since dropping down to Welterweight in 2012. His ability to make fighters with decades of experience tap like white belts has been known to cause ego death and cause fighters to question everything they know, and indeed the universe itself. At underdog odds, Maia looks to be the steal of the century.

Our reports indicate that Masvidal will not be able to stop the elite takedown chain that Maia inflicts on all his victims. He is simply too skinny, too lackadaisical and generally too willing to succumb. One inside source from the future has informed us that Maia will indeed, and I quote, "take him down whenever and wherever he wants".

That's it from us at Gray's Sports Almanac. Be sure to look out for our other future prediction articles, coming soon to a Sherdog forum near you.
 
ill800 said:
What would you cap the 8" over/under at?
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8 inches is big dogg i don't even hit that on the rhinos

cagebrain said:
#Elite underdog pick of the year is Damien "The Babadook" Maia

If it's in a cage, or if it's in a nook
you can't get rid of the Babadook.
A rumbling sound, and you'll be shook
you better run, he'll hold you in his hooks.
ba-ba-ba-dook-dook-dook...
The cage door opens
Masvidals honestly hopin'
that he won't hear his sound
hat's when Maia knows that he's around.
So close your eyes and count to ten
better hope you don't wake up again.
'Cause if it's in a cage, or if it's in a nook
you can't get rid of the Babadook
BABA DOOK DOOK DOOK

A "Gray's Sports Almanac" News Stoy

Damien "The Babadook" Maia has been eating the souls of UFC strikers ever since dropping down to Welterweight in 2012. His ability to make fighters with decades of experience tap like white belts has been known to cause ego death and cause fighters to question everything they know, and indeed the universe itself. At underdog odds, Maia looks to be the steal of the century.

Our reports indicate that Masvidal will not be able to stop the elite takedown chain that Maia inflicts on all his victims. He is simply too skinny, too lackadaisical and generally too willing to succumb. One inside source from the future has informed us that Maia will indeed, and I quote, "take him down whenever and wherever he wants".

That's it from us at Gray's Sports Almanac. Be sure to look out for our other future prediction articles, coming soon to a Sherdog forum near you.
Click to expand...
VERY #elite prediction with an #elite horror movie reference. Very proud of you so far #onetowatch
 
A lot of yall want to stab Joachim, which at the odds I don't blame you, but I don't think he can handle Antigulov's strength. Yes he's well versed in all areas, very complete and smart game, but a fight is a fight. I've seen him get bullied out of good positions on strength alone. Antigulov's going to be the strongest guy he's faced in a while, he's a tank. Also Joachim gets hit quite a bit, susceptible to wide hooks while he tries to strike down the middle. Antigulov's got that nasty right hand.
 
cagebrain said:
#Elite underdog pick of the year is Damien "The Babadook" Maia

If it's in a cage, or if it's in a nook
you can't get rid of the Babadook.
A rumbling sound, and you'll be shook
you better run, he'll hold you in his hooks.
ba-ba-ba-dook-dook-dook...
The cage door opens
Masvidals honestly hopin'
that he won't hear his sound
hat's when Maia knows that he's around.
So close your eyes and count to ten
better hope you don't wake up again.
'Cause if it's in a cage, or if it's in a nook
you can't get rid of the Babadook
BABA DOOK DOOK DOOK

A "Gray's Sports Almanac" News Stoy

Damien "The Babadook" Maia has been eating the souls of UFC strikers ever since dropping down to Welterweight in 2012. His ability to make fighters with decades of experience tap like white belts has been known to cause ego death and cause fighters to question everything they know, and indeed the universe itself. At underdog odds, Maia looks to be the steal of the century.

Our reports indicate that Masvidal will not be able to stop the elite takedown chain that Maia inflicts on all his victims. He is simply too skinny, too lackadaisical and generally too willing to succumb. One inside source from the future has informed us that Maia will indeed, and I quote, "take him down whenever and wherever he wants".

That's it from us at Gray's Sports Almanac. Be sure to look out for our other future prediction articles, coming soon to a Sherdog forum near you.
Click to expand...
Very proud of you my man. You are making our crew look very good. Keep it up. would like to know your full bets for this card if you don't mind. I'm thinking about Antigulov to finish Joachim u1,5 what do you think?
 
cagebrain said:
#Elite underdog pick of the year is Damien "The Babadook" Maia

If it's in a cage, or if it's in a nook
you can't get rid of the Babadook.
A rumbling sound, and you'll be shook
you better run, he'll hold you in his hooks.
ba-ba-ba-dook-dook-dook...
The cage door opens
Masvidals honestly hopin'
that he won't hear his sound
hat's when Maia knows that he's around.
So close your eyes and count to ten
better hope you don't wake up again.
'Cause if it's in a cage, or if it's in a nook
you can't get rid of the Babadook
BABA DOOK DOOK DOOK

A "Gray's Sports Almanac" News Stoy

Damien "The Babadook" Maia has been eating the souls of UFC strikers ever since dropping down to Welterweight in 2012. His ability to make fighters with decades of experience tap like white belts has been known to cause ego death and cause fighters to question everything they know, and indeed the universe itself. At underdog odds, Maia looks to be the steal of the century.

Our reports indicate that Masvidal will not be able to stop the elite takedown chain that Maia inflicts on all his victims. He is simply too skinny, too lackadaisical and generally too willing to succumb. One inside source from the future has informed us that Maia will indeed, and I quote, "take him down whenever and wherever he wants".

That's it from us at Gray's Sports Almanac. Be sure to look out for our other future prediction articles, coming soon to a Sherdog forum near you.
Click to expand...

914yfht.png


Great post keep it up brother.
 
Just caught up with 21 pages of this thread. There was a part one to this mess, lol? #cringeworthy posters

So far I'm 3u big on Maia as a slight dog at +110, plus Maia sub at +256 and a stab at Maia round 2 +625. I bet Frankie pretty big as a small favorite at -130 to win 3u although the way Yair towered over him at the face off is worrying. I like Casey over JAG at -120 to win 1u. Also Sherman at -145 against late replacement Coulter to win 1.5u. For props, I like the value on Branch submission at +950 as Jotko has one loss via a guillotine choke and Branch has a lot of subs.
 
Well guys, with 14 fights you knew this was coming

Cejudo vs Pettis is cancelled
 
King_Brown said:
Very proud of you my man. You are making our crew look very good. Keep it up. would like to know your full bets for this card if you don't mind. I'm thinking about Antigulov to finish Joachim u1,5 what do you think?
Click to expand...

I am staying way from that fight. Too much of a crapshoot. I'm not digging the prelims for bets ATM. Things could change in the next few days if odds swing.

So far I am hanging off Maia's nutsack huge (Maia ML, Maia +3.5, Not Mas ITD), also on Joanna Frankie and Sherman small. Hit Andrade NSC and Pettis DEC for props.

Edit: Scratch the Pettis bet. Fight cancelled.
 
Breaking: Saturday’s Sergio Pettis vs. Henry Cejudo flyweight fight has been canceled, per multiple sources.

i wasn't really interested in that fight but still sucks not to see it.
 
cagebrain said:
I am staying way from that fight. Too much of a crapshoot. I'm not digging the prelims for bets ATM. Things could change in the next few days if odds swing.

So far I am hanging off Maia's nutsack huge (Maia ML, Maia +3.5, Not Mas ITD), also on Joanna Frankie and Sherman small. Hit Andrade NSC and Pettis DEC for props.

Edit: Scratch the Pettis bet. Fight cancelled.
Click to expand...
yeah me too.. its sherman and maia for me or bust.
 
King_Brown said:
Breaking: Saturday’s Sergio Pettis vs. Henry Cejudo flyweight fight has been canceled, per multiple sources.

i wasn't really interested in that fight but still sucks not to see it.
Click to expand...
Henry Cejudo cant make weight -200
Other reason +160
 
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