UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

Status
Not open for further replies.
I don't really know...the standard play on CT drop down box is set at 5.5 units and when I'm in a rush I don't have the time to take it down to one unit or 1.5 units or 3.5 units etc.. so I am usually just clicking the standard play. However, Kelly Gives you flexibility with your play is at most wager between 1% and 3% of their bank roll. Wagering 5.5 units is right around this mark...Plus at any one time I usually have between $3000 and $5000 on games every day.. while I have $25,000 in my account right now I could wake up and it would be between 20k and 30k. It ebbs and flows. But long-term it is in the positive,

It's all about the ROI to be honest. I'm not trying to be misleading. In fact I created a third-party tracking site just for the purpose of transparency. If it makes you feel better I will change it to maximum of three units LOL hell for that matter I'll open it up for free. My clientele is happy and the prices/stats tdon't tell the whole story. But I am tired of defending myself.

Unit size irrelevant / about ROI and right now mine sucks tbh
most people here bet to small for optimal br growth when they bet favourites (assuming they are profitable betters) if you look at the math.
 
Not to troll, but you guys betting draw on Mas/Mai... According to Masvidal rhetoric you better put on glasses when he fights cause blood will be splattered all over the cage. He goes to say that this is going to be so brutal, that DOOM video game will seem like PG-13 stuff. (that last line i just made up, but he does say some silly shit saying that this will be XXX rated material, so bad will be the beating he lays on Maia)

Here is the link to his promises of godlike beating he is about to unleash.

http://www.bjpenn.com/mma-news/jorg...promises-defeat-demian-maia-x-rated-violence/

While i believe this is all just bravado, i highly doubt a draw in this one. X-rated beating to get a draw. LOL.
its possible as there can be 10-8 scores. maia from backpacking a whole rd. maz from knockdowns and maia flopping to his back when he gets hit like the conner diaz fight (a way he could lose a rd big but still survive). its a long shot and unlikly to happen but 80/1
 
I'm tempted to go semi-big on Sherman but.... I think we all remember what happened last time we were trigger happy on a low level HW fight and the opponent being an inflated MW....
marcel-fortuna-anthony-hamilton-ufc-fight-night-104-2.jpg
 
It's not flawed at all, and I can't believe you work in the financial industry if you don't understand that. Saying you are up __________ is just a snapshot in time. There are several indicators where this person may not be doing as well as someone who is up less money. For example, someone who just came off a big win with a low ROI that is up $10k is probably not doing better overall than someone sitting at $10k with a higher ROI. Long term, the latter would be ahead. Similarly, you can have someone up 50 units or whatever who is going to bet 40 units the next event. Where their winnings sit can fluctuate greatly, and the guy sitting up 50 units who only bets 5 units is more likely to have stable results.



That's bullshit and you know it. It's about bragging on the internet.




When in the hell did I defend Luca's juiced favorite strategy? That never happened. If you are referring to when I was talking about how he's obviously making a lot of money on premium picks if he's moving lines, that was defending the way he's built a business. You have these people on betting threads that are so damn concerned with how good they are and how much better they are than Luca, yet they can't monetize that for shit. I think it's hilarious that he built a business and the online touts that care so much about how other people think they are doing are mad as hell. I think the tout business is ridiculous too, which I've always stated.




You are preaching to the choir on unit size. Again, this has been a problem in these threads for a long time, even before you were here. I called out MMABettingTips A LOT on that as it always inflated his wins. But the thing is, it will inflate your losses too. I've never been a fan of units, only because people use them wrong and it doesn't really say shit.

And Goodfella knows that I've been critical of him in the past, particularly in live bets. That was a big thing when live betting first started. It seemed like everyone was somehow hedging out on live plays or adding more. You rarely heard about the losses.
Short term yes I agree. But at the end of the year, if someone has a worse ROI but made more money they win. Thats why I can only hate on Luca for perceivably being a giant douchebag. We all know his ROI has to be the worst, but if hes hitting those juiced faves consistently which has been the case than hes winning

Bragging on the internet is also awesome, but for sure thats still second to winning money

My bad I must've remembered wrong but now that you pointed it out I am remembering you praising the business model and not much else

Correct its going to inflate everything. So lets give Goodfella the small amount of respect hes earned for being profitable. But like someone pointed out, if you take his "standard 5.5u - 20u" bets and reduce those to ACTUAL unit sizes, hes up 10u last year. Thats GARBAGE if you're gonna charge people money.

Hes misleading people. Seriously, its gross. If there is someone out there like me when I first started who is learning about gambling and defines their units, comes across this bum with his however many units won, pays for his service and hes making dumb as fuck 20u bets losing 100u a month that person will NEVER learn anything and be misled as to how this really works if you want long term profitability. Are they the main ones at fault? Of course. But does that mean I have to respect a guy like Goodfella who takes advantage cause hes a lazy fuck? Fuck no

And lastly, I just wanna LOL real quick at MMAGF saying "oh I do 20 hours of research so I feel like I should charge people"

What bro? We ALL do our research. The difference is, MMAGF has under legit terms made about 10u the past year and feels obliged to fudge his numbers and start a tout service to take advantage of cause apparently doing your research like any good gambler makes that OK.
 
As long as it's over a decent sample size I think ROI is the best way to do it. If you say units you need to define how many units you've risked over time to get the same info as the ROI.

Like, anyone who has posted more then maybe 100 bets should really use ROI to make it easier and anyone who brags about a sample size of less then 100 bets can't be taken serious on that ground (not saying they're bad or retards, just that the sample size doesn't support any kind of claim about profitability unless the winrate is absolutely huge).

Really don't think that anyone who has spent less then a couple of years betting MMA can claim that they're proven winners over a decent sample size. Like, anyone who has played online poker knows that just because some dumb fuck happens to win like 50 buy ins over 50k hands or whatever it doesn't mean that they'll keep winning.

I'm guessing that of the regular posters here maybe five or ten can make a claim of profitability over a meaningful sample size in total for MMA betting. On the top of my head I'd probably bet that EzFlyer might have the sample to support that and possibly MMAGF if he tracked his bets before it got 3rd partied. Then maybe a handful of people who has tracked their stuff in private. Guessing less then three (and I'm being generous) can claim profitability over a statistical sample that makes it 99%+ sure that it's not just variance on 3rd party sites. I'd say 0, but I don't really know the math and I'm to lazy to look up if anyone is winning by a decent margin over 1k+ bets or whatever it might be.

Basically my point is that as long as you have the following:

1. Units wagered.
2. Profit/loss
3. Sample size (number of bets)

You can probably make a formula that calculates the margin of error. If you have a decent math guy who can program stuff decently he can probably make you a program to calculate it by just putting the numbers in and pressing enter.

Now that I think about it I might try to hire my brother in law to do one of those.

a heavy fav bettors roi is more likely to be accurate than a dog bettor over the same sample size. you can trust the favourites bettors roi with more confidence
 
a heavy fav bettors roi is more likely to be accurate than a dog bettor over the same sample size. you can trust the favourites bettors roi with more confidence

Not at all, especially over a large sample size. Unless you are trying to say the fav bettors pick is more likely to hit in ONE instance. Well of course. But over multiple bets, it would be the same.
 
Not at all, especially over a large sample size. Unless you are trying to say the fav bettors pick is more likely to hit in ONE instance. Well of course. But over multiple bets, it would be the same.
over 100 bets a -400 bettors roi compared to a +400 bettors roi. both have the same positive roi. you can say with a greater degree of confidence that the -400 bettor is profitable
 
Why so high on Sherman?
Or is more just how bad the opponent
fading the opponent. and seen enough from sherman in his losses. he is tough and has big heart and chin. capping lots of unknowns. unknowns in every fight just a lot more in this one. the way im capping them tho sherman should be a much bigger fav
 
zzzzzz. Less arguing about b.r management/Luca/ROI bullshit and more talking about the fight card please.
 
It's not flawed at all, and I can't believe you work in the financial industry if you don't understand that. Saying you are up __________ is just a snapshot in time. There are several indicators where this person may not be doing as well as someone who is up less money. For example, someone who just came off a big win with a low ROI that is up $10k is probably not doing better overall than someone sitting at $10k with a higher ROI. Long term, the latter would be ahead. Similarly, you can have someone up 50 units or whatever who is going to bet 40 units the next event. Where their winnings sit can fluctuate greatly, and the guy sitting up 50 units who only bets 5 units is more likely to have stable results.

You are preaching to the choir on unit size. Again, this has been a problem in these threads for a long time, even before you were here. I called out MMABettingTips A LOT on that as it always inflated his wins. But the thing is, it will inflate your losses too. I've never been a fan of units, only because people use them wrong and it doesn't really say shit.

this is very flawed indeed!!

For example, someone who just came off a big win with a low ROI that is up $10k is probably not doing better overall than someone sitting at $10k with a higher ROI. Long term, the latter would be ahead

your example does not take into account betting strategies, and the difference in using a bigger bank/ larger bets especially because almost all of the time it can become a lot harder to get a higher ROI when using larger stakes, it makes no sense if your comparing someone who has a much larger ROI to someone who has a smaller one because their bet sizes would likely differ a lot, while not even accounting for more fundamental differences in their wagers/mentality etc
 
Really considering going even bigger on Maia than I originally planned to. All these interviews from Mas.. whiners usually lose the fight. Plus Mas beating three mid level strikers is a good smoke screen. Public has been fooled.

Do you not consider Maia's run a bit of a smoke screen considering Brown and Condit are retired fighters (basically)
Gunnar is weird and wanted to test his grappling, Magny laflare and Yakolev don't carry huge strike threats?
 
Do you not consider Maia's run a bit of a smoke screen considering Brown and Condit are retired fighters (basically)
Gunnar is weird and wanted to test his grappling, Magny laflare and Yakolev don't carry huge strike threats?

No. You can't discount seven dominating wins over quality fighters.
 
No. You can't discount seven dominating wins over quality fighters.
Even further than this, you also can't discount a close loss to Rory where he scored multiple tds. Literally no one but Maia has ever outwrestled or outgrappled Rory
 
over 100 bets a -400 bettors roi compared to a +400 bettors roi. both have the same positive roi. you can say with a greater degree of confidence that the -400 bettor is profitable

Explain your logic on that.
 
this is very flawed indeed!!

For example, someone who just came off a big win with a low ROI that is up $10k is probably not doing better overall than someone sitting at $10k with a higher ROI. Long term, the latter would be ahead

your example does not take into account betting strategies, and the difference in using a bigger bank/ larger bets especially because almost all of the time it can become a lot harder to get a higher ROI when using larger stakes, it makes no sense if your comparing someone who has a much larger ROI to someone who has a smaller one because their bet sizes would likely differ a lot, while not even accounting for more fundamental differences in their wagers/mentality etc

Sure, ROI isn't going to take everything into account, but it's taking a lot more into account than just saying "whoever is ahead more right now is doing better". ROI is a much better LONG TERM indicator. And the big thing with ROI is being used as an equalizer with unit size and bankroll. Someone who is betting $100 per event and is up $1000 for the year is probably going to be better to follow than someone who is betting $500 per event and is up $2000 for the year.
 
ROI does not take in account making good hedge bets when the lines move. On paper they increase money risked, but actually reduce the risk if the call was right.

Wrong, if the hedge is +ev it increases roi, if it's -ev it decreases. The only thing it does from being a "hedge" instead of a normal bet is decreasing risk, which is only indirectly correlated to ROI.

Explain your logic on that.

Higher variance = higher sample size before you can say with X degree on of certainty that it's within the margin of error, I think.

Guessing the +400 bettor has higher variance, but I'm not actually sure because I'm not sleeping enough and to lazy to think it through.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top