UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part III

[Jae Gibbz]

Summer press conference has been so cringey

lol @ Kevin Lee punching Chiesa though

Chiesa is gonna fuck him up

 

[Rebel_LioN]

But try to stick around. Or at least PM me dude.

I'm in Vegas right now, gonna hit the Superbook tonight

I just left Vegas yesterday dude. I'm on Edgar too. I think he could've beaten Aldo via volume vs the harder shots. That spinning ish ain't gonna work against Edgar who actually has an answer (pun intended) for his feints and has a rhyme to his reasons when he goes out there.

I like him to put a stamp on the fight via GnP.

 

[null]

Personally I'd prefer to be known for my X's and O breakdowns than my numbers. I would rather provide food-for-thought, not plays for people to tail.

Speaking as someone who randomly tailed one of your three leg prop parlays and won 3 G's on it, we prefer parlays we can tail, Rebel_Lion!.

 

[Orion]

You're an OG Reb ....I hespect your X's and O's and your W's

Yeah, I was genuinely interested in Rebel's input a few pages back before the royal rumble kicked off. Parlays/picks are always cool to tail but the breakdowns are money since it helps to compare if our own personal analysis seems on point or has any holes in it

 

[SBJJ]

So I hit the treasure island sportsbook and say 560 on Andrade @+180. Lady rings me up for 260. I say no 560 so she immediately hits me for another 300. So I'm walking out the sports book and a dude chases me down saying she made a mistake and I can only bet 300. I show him my tickets and said I don't have a ticket for over 300. He explains he need to void the tickets so he can change the line. U fucking kidding me! I had tickets in my hand

 

[EzFlyer]

So I hit the treasure island sportsbook and say 560 on Andrade @+180. Lady rings me up for 260. I say no 560 so she immediately hits me for another 300. So I'm walking out the sports book and a dude chases me down saying she made a mistake and I can only bet 300. I show him my tickets and said I don't have a ticket for over 300. He explains he need to void the tickets so he can change the line. U fucking kidding me! I had tickets in my hand

Lol, wtf!

 

[Sham5916910]

So I hit the treasure island sportsbook and say 560 on Andrade @+180. Lady rings me up for 260. I say no 560 so she immediately hits me for another 300. So I'm walking out the sports book and a dude chases me down saying she made a mistake and I can only bet 300. I show him my tickets and said I don't have a ticket for over 300. He explains he need to void the tickets so he can change the line. U fucking kidding me! I had tickets in my hand

How much you putting on andrade dude

 

[Ukram]

Weigh ins starting now

 

[SBJJ]

Lol, wtf!

I couldn't believe it. I told them give me the 2 VOIDED tickets because I didn't want them having any of my cash, and I took them to my casino host.

Bullshit. I was walking out with tickets. Vegas is becoming so gay.

Add insult to injury. I'm at Venetian now and she's +160

 

[SBJJ]

How much you putting on andrade dude

3 to 5k I think

 

[Orion]

Casey towering over Aguilar. Interested in Casey sub now with her active style off her back + that annoying length.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Yeah, I was genuinely interested in Rebel's input a few pages back before the royal rumble kicked off. Parlays/picks are always cool to tail but the breakdowns are money since it helps to compare if our own personal analysis seems on point or has any holes in it

I think everyone is in a different position in their life and with different bankrolls and with different goals in what they want to achieve with betting. Something that works for me doesn't always work for the next guy.

What does ALWAYS work is laying out the details of how a fight can go and finding out where the value lies and how to assess the risk to form your own conclusions with your own personal bankroll.

Anyone who acts supremely confident in any outcome is a bonehead because it isn't us in the training camps or in the cage fighting. To rely on someone else's decisions means you have no control over your own and it shows in your betting style.

I'd like to participate in these threads more but it's too much negativity.

 

[Mcgregorian]

Consider me 10 ft tall when I'm looking down at you in fetal position.

Ignore the prick mate. He's brought down the forum IMO and tries to stir up everyone who disagrees with him. I honestly think he has special needs. Something we should consider....

 

[Orion]

Masvidal looking pretty small next to Maia

 

[Wiktoruspro]

@Rebel_LioN if You dont give picks than could you give some more advice about parlays? How much maximum You bet fights on one parlay?

 

[DevilsPt2]

Str8 bets in order of confidence plus a cheat sheet. For scale purposes, Antigulov is at least -500 and Aguilar -120.

ANTIGULOV - ITD(SUB) - FDGD - ANTIGULOV RD1
JEDRZEJCZYK - JJ DEC - ANDRADE NSC - O2.5 - JJ STR8 - JJ RD5
RODRIGUEZ - RODRIGUEZ ST8 - RODRIGUEZ NSC - RODRIGUEZ ITD(KO) - RODRIGUEZ RD1 OR 2
POIRIER - POIRIER STR8 - POIRIER ITD(KO) - POIRIER NSC - POIRIER RD1
JOTKO - JOTKO DEC - O2.5
SKELLY - SKELLY DEC - O2.5
BENITEZ - BENITEZ DEC - BENITEZ NSC - O2.5 - BENITEZ RD 3
MASVIDAL - FDGD - MASVIDAL ITD(KO) - MASVIDAL RD1
VICK - O1.5 - VICK STR8 - VICK DEC - VICK NSC - VICK RD3
MIOCIC - O1.5 - FDGD - MIOCIC KO - MIOCIC RD3 OR 4
SHERMAN - FDGD - U1.5 - SHERMAN KO - SHERMAN RD 1
AGUILAR - CASEY NSC - O2.5 - AGUILAR DEC

You are welcome for Divine Knowledge. I'll guarantee answers to the first 3 questions.

 

[EzFlyer]

fight pass:

antigulov-christensen
antigulov is a tank. not the biggest 205 but he's strong.
christensen looks alright. as expected for the elder statesman.
chritsensen towers over antigulov, 5" taller

barzola-benitez
barzola looks solid, same as usual
benitez looks very solid.. as good as ever.
barzola 1" taller

aguilar-casey
casey looks solid as usual. good size for 115
jag weighs in fully clothed. doesn't look too fit, tho?
casey a lot bigger. 4" taller etc.

FS1:

reyes-vick
reyes looks solid. he's a bruiser.
vick super long and lean, as expected. but looks good.
vick 3+" taller

sherman-coulter
coulter looks a pretty soft. in at 241.
sherman looks solid.. he's 250
sherman is 4+" taller, definitely bigger

skelly-knight
knight lean as hell, looks good, tho. same as usual
skelly looks a bit awkward as always, but darn good for him
skelly 1" taller.. two rangey mofo's for 145.. skelly does seem like he's got a bigger frame, tho

poirier-alvarez
poirier looks awesome. he's never going back to 145.
alvarez looks shredded as hell. both dudes in amazing shape
poirier is 2" taller

PPV:

jotko-branch
branch looks outstanding.. as good as ever
jotko looks solid. same as usual for him lately. leaner than branch but looks good.
they're similarly sized

edgar-rodriguez
yair long, lean and shredded as hell, as per usual
frankie getting boo'd? what the hell!?!? he looks great, same as usual
yair is 4" taller

masvidal-maia
masvidal weighs in fully clothed. he looked good for him this morning, tho.
maia looking solid, same as usual
maia is definitely bigger. like 2-3" taller and looks a weight class bigger.

andrade-jedzrezyeaistillcan'tspellit
andrade lookin pretty jacked, definitely looks in shape (too much makeup, tho!)
JJ looks good.. i feel like she looked a little stronger in last couple fights?
JJ is 2-3" taller.. andrade doesn't look intimidated

miocic-jds
JDS looks thick.. maybe a little too thick?? but still looks excellent for a HW
stipe looks great.. both guys look in shape.
they're identically sized, as we knew

 

[Mcgregorian]

I have to say JJ looks like shit after the weigh in. I can't deny how good Andrade looked. Not sure what to do now on this one. Will probably bet at the last minute.

Alvarez and Miocic i believe are the best value bets on the card.

Is anybody here going to this? It's a fucking great card. I just booked Auckland for Lewis vs Hunt

 

[EzFlyer]

adding more to branch +140. this line is just off. it is. i actually cap branch as a small favorite here. but even if it's a coinflip, +140 is very solid value.

this is gonna have a LOT of clinching, and i think branch is the stronger dude. this fight means more to him than it does to jotko. i try to avoid mental drive (who wants it more etc) but i think it's gotta be true here. it could add some unnecessary(unfavorable) pressure to branch, but i think this is almost like a titleshot for branch.. it's a validation fight that the years he's done great outside of the UFC were proof of something.

idk. that might be a reach. i get that.

i still say +140 is a darn good play. no way jotko deserves to be this big of a favorite.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Yeah, I was genuinely interested in Rebel's input a few pages back before the royal rumble kicked off. Parlays/picks are always cool to tail but the breakdowns are money since it helps to compare if our own personal analysis seems on point or has any holes in it

True that!