UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part III

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I don't even watch tape and I'm almost positive that I've never been down over a 4 month span. I can't imagine being proud of that and bragging about a recent run. Seems degen as fuck.

I didn't take it as bragging, the guy called him out as a losing better, what is he supposed to do (if he's up on the year)? Plus that guy posts his bets and he really puts his money out there - way more than I'd be comfortable with or even enjoy watching a fight with that much on it. I just put a token bet to have rooting interest lol. He's a good posted and a good better imo
 
Branch has great cardio. He's went 5 rounds a few times. I'm on jotko but this is a winnable fight for him. I think it's going the distance
True. Could be a good idea to come fired up and set the pace.
 
I've been going back and forward on Poirier/Alvarez for a while, think I will skip picking a side and just go with fight to end in ko/tko +200 @unibet, would be quite suprised if this ends in a submission. Both of them got decent power and prefers to strike, not the best chins (both ko'd in less than a year ago), quite hitable and are easily dragged into brawls.
 
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Let me ask you directly. Do you think that Masvidal has no chance in this fight?

LOL the last EIGHT fights on the card (the entire ppv card plus the last 3 on the undercard) are EXTREMELY difficult fights to predict. We all have our leans for sure, but if anyone thinks ANY of these 16 fighters have "no chance" they should probably stop betting MMA. Or at least they should take a break.

The problem is that stylistically there's gonna be guys that win convincingly and those who backed them will probably act like they knew it all along.

JDS/Stipe- Because it's HW there's a good chance someone gets blasted and it's a brutal KO. Whoever wins, their backers most likely say "I told you so..."
JJ/Andrade- If JJ uses her muy thai effectively and picks Andrade apart, she could make it look easy. On the flipside, if Andrade brutalizes JJ and finishes, same deal. Both plausible scenarios. Andrade getting more love here for sure (I'm on her too) but that's more odds based than anything.
Mas/Maia-More discussed than any fight here. Both guys with CLEAR paths to victory obviously, and a very good chance that whoever wins makes it look easy. But that doesn't mean it's not a tough fight to pick the winner.
Yair/Frankie-Same deal. Both guys have paths to victory. If Frankie implements his wrestling successfully and holds Yair down, all the Frankie backers will say how obvious it was. Meanwhile if Yair stuffs the TD's and beats Frankie from distance or catches him and finishes, you'll probably hear "Younger, faster, more dynamic guy at + odds, what an obvious bet that was..."
Jotko/Branch-Two very solid in unspectacular guys, 'nuff said.
DP/Eddie-Also has gotten a lot of attention. If Eddie wins you'll hear from his backers "Look at the level of competition, DP didn't look awesome vs Miller and got starched by MJ, this was so obvious...". If DP wins you'll hear "Eddie coming off a brutal loss, gets hit in almost every fight and DP has power, this was easy to see coming..."
Knight/Skelly- If Knight wins it will be "Skelly always gasses, Knight super gritty and tough, saw this coming". If Skelly wins it will be "Knight accepts bottom way too easily and vs a good top game guy this was easy to see how it would play out."
Sherman/Coulter-Two low level HW's so who knows what happens.

So yeah, you get the point. Nobody KNOWS anything about these fights. But of course afterward there will be some who claim they did, as there always is. Personally I'm on board with @SBJJ in that I hunted value and looked for + odds on fights that were really tough for me to figure out who'd win. And then hunted juicy prop odds and I think I got some nice ones in JDS KO/TKO, Yair dec, DP KO/TKO, and Mas KO/TKO but who knows? Even if every one of those hit, I'm not gonna claim I "knew" it was coming LOL.
 
LOL the last EIGHT fights on the card (the entire ppv card plus the last 3 on the undercard) are EXTREMELY difficult fights to predict. We all have our leans for sure, but if anyone thinks ANY of these 16 fighters have "no chance" they should probably stop betting MMA. Or at least they should take a break.

The problem is that stylistically there's gonna be guys that win convincingly and those who backed them will probably act like they knew it all along.

JDS/Stipe- Because it's HW there's a good chance someone gets blasted and it's a brutal KO. Whoever wins, their backers most likely say "I told you so..."
JJ/Andrade- If JJ uses her muy thai effectively and picks Andrade apart, she could make it look easy. On the flipside, if Andrade brutalizes JJ and finishes, same deal. Both plausible scenarios. Andrade getting more love here for sure (I'm on her too) but that's more odds based than anything.
Mas/Maia-More discussed than any fight here. Both guys with CLEAR paths to victory obviously, and a very good chance that whoever wins makes it look easy. But that doesn't mean it's not a tough fight to pick the winner.
Yair/Frankie-Same deal. Both guys have paths to victory. If Frankie implements his wrestling successfully and holds Yair down, all the Frankie backers will say how obvious it was. Meanwhile if Yair stuffs the TD's and beats Frankie from distance or catches him and finishes, you'll probably hear "Younger, faster, more dynamic guy at + odds, what an obvious bet that was..."
Jotko/Branch-Two very solid in unspectacular guys, 'nuff said.
DP/Eddie-Also has gotten a lot of attention. If Eddie wins you'll hear from his backers "Look at the level of competition, DP didn't look awesome vs Miller and got starched by MJ, this was so obvious...". If DP wins you'll hear "Eddie coming off a brutal loss, gets hit in almost every fight and DP has power, this was easy to see coming..."
Knight/Skelly- If Knight wins it will be "Skelly always gasses, Knight super gritty and tough, saw this coming". If Skelly wins it will be "Knight accepts bottom way too easily and vs a good top game guy this was easy to see how it would play out."
Sherman/Coulter-Two low level HW's so who knows what happens.

So yeah, you get the point. Nobody KNOWS anything about these fights. But of course afterward there will be some who claim they did, as there always is. Personally I'm on board with @SBJJ in that I hunted value and looked for + odds on fights that were really tough for me to figure out who'd win. And then hunted juicy prop odds and I think I got some nice ones in JDS KO/TKO, Yair dec, DP KO/TKO, and Mas KO/TKO but who knows? Even if every one of those hit, I'm not gonna claim I "knew" it was coming LOL.

I could not agree more
 
I hear you, but when great majority of people capable of forming an educated opinion are picking red, there might be something I'm missing.

You arent missing anything people are picking sherman cos hes had 2 ufc fights. I dont know why people are confident based on that i think cos hes tough people are assuming coulter drops first. Theres no way anyone can have a strong lean on this. If you are betting for degen action fair enough but i think any more than half a unit you may as well go play red or black.
 
+1
This is a gambling card more than a betting card.
I think all of us are being dragged into it a bit more than usual just because of the hype and all the great matches.
 
Confidence increase joachim. Bloody elbow unanimously pick antigulov.
 
LOL the last EIGHT fights on the card (the entire ppv card plus the last 3 on the undercard) are EXTREMELY difficult fights to predict. We all have our leans for sure, but if anyone thinks ANY of these 16 fighters have "no chance" they should probably stop betting MMA. Or at least they should take a break.

The problem is that stylistically there's gonna be guys that win convincingly and those who backed them will probably act like they knew it all along.

JDS/Stipe- Because it's HW there's a good chance someone gets blasted and it's a brutal KO. Whoever wins, their backers most likely say "I told you so..."
JJ/Andrade- If JJ uses her muy thai effectively and picks Andrade apart, she could make it look easy. On the flipside, if Andrade brutalizes JJ and finishes, same deal. Both plausible scenarios. Andrade getting more love here for sure (I'm on her too) but that's more odds based than anything.
Mas/Maia-More discussed than any fight here. Both guys with CLEAR paths to victory obviously, and a very good chance that whoever wins makes it look easy. But that doesn't mean it's not a tough fight to pick the winner.
Yair/Frankie-Same deal. Both guys have paths to victory. If Frankie implements his wrestling successfully and holds Yair down, all the Frankie backers will say how obvious it was. Meanwhile if Yair stuffs the TD's and beats Frankie from distance or catches him and finishes, you'll probably hear "Younger, faster, more dynamic guy at + odds, what an obvious bet that was..."
Jotko/Branch-Two very solid in unspectacular guys, 'nuff said.
DP/Eddie-Also has gotten a lot of attention. If Eddie wins you'll hear from his backers "Look at the level of competition, DP didn't look awesome vs Miller and got starched by MJ, this was so obvious...". If DP wins you'll hear "Eddie coming off a brutal loss, gets hit in almost every fight and DP has power, this was easy to see coming..."
Knight/Skelly- If Knight wins it will be "Skelly always gasses, Knight super gritty and tough, saw this coming". If Skelly wins it will be "Knight accepts bottom way too easily and vs a good top game guy this was easy to see how it would play out."
Sherman/Coulter-Two low level HW's so who knows what happens.

So yeah, you get the point. Nobody KNOWS anything about these fights. But of course afterward there will be some who claim they did, as there always is. Personally I'm on board with @SBJJ in that I hunted value and looked for + odds on fights that were really tough for me to figure out who'd win. And then hunted juicy prop odds and I think I got some nice ones in JDS KO/TKO, Yair dec, DP KO/TKO, and Mas KO/TKO but who knows? Even if every one of those hit, I'm not gonna claim I "knew" it was coming LOL.
Yea, as for Sherman vs Coulter, it would be super embarrassing for a JacksonWink fighter who trained under Duke Roufus to got 0-3 especially if he gets knocked out by a 35-yr-old on short notice who's never beaten a winning opponent. But he's got power and a wicked long reach which makes it tricky.
 
+1
This is a gambling card more than a betting card.
I think all of us are being dragged into it a bit more than usual just because of the hype and all the great matches.

The weeks between cards definitely helped drag me in deep.

I've got 2u on Sherman after saying I wasn't betting the fight, like 7u on Maia, and I think Christensen is my second biggest play. So DEFINITELY another degen card for me
 
LOL the last EIGHT fights on the card (the entire ppv card plus the last 3 on the undercard) are EXTREMELY difficult fights to predict. We all have our leans for sure, but if anyone thinks ANY of these 16 fighters have "no chance" they should probably stop betting MMA. Or at least they should take a break.

The problem is that stylistically there's gonna be guys that win convincingly and those who backed them will probably act like they knew it all along.

JDS/Stipe- Because it's HW there's a good chance someone gets blasted and it's a brutal KO. Whoever wins, their backers most likely say "I told you so..."
JJ/Andrade- If JJ uses her muy thai effectively and picks Andrade apart, she could make it look easy. On the flipside, if Andrade brutalizes JJ and finishes, same deal. Both plausible scenarios. Andrade getting more love here for sure (I'm on her too) but that's more odds based than anything.
Mas/Maia-More discussed than any fight here. Both guys with CLEAR paths to victory obviously, and a very good chance that whoever wins makes it look easy. But that doesn't mean it's not a tough fight to pick the winner.
Yair/Frankie-Same deal. Both guys have paths to victory. If Frankie implements his wrestling successfully and holds Yair down, all the Frankie backers will say how obvious it was. Meanwhile if Yair stuffs the TD's and beats Frankie from distance or catches him and finishes, you'll probably hear "Younger, faster, more dynamic guy at + odds, what an obvious bet that was..."
Jotko/Branch-Two very solid in unspectacular guys, 'nuff said.
DP/Eddie-Also has gotten a lot of attention. If Eddie wins you'll hear from his backers "Look at the level of competition, DP didn't look awesome vs Miller and got starched by MJ, this was so obvious...". If DP wins you'll hear "Eddie coming off a brutal loss, gets hit in almost every fight and DP has power, this was easy to see coming..."
Knight/Skelly- If Knight wins it will be "Skelly always gasses, Knight super gritty and tough, saw this coming". If Skelly wins it will be "Knight accepts bottom way too easily and vs a good top game guy this was easy to see how it would play out."
Sherman/Coulter-Two low level HW's so who knows what happens.

So yeah, you get the point. Nobody KNOWS anything about these fights. But of course afterward there will be some who claim they did, as there always is. Personally I'm on board with @SBJJ in that I hunted value and looked for + odds on fights that were really tough for me to figure out who'd win. And then hunted juicy prop odds and I think I got some nice ones in JDS KO/TKO, Yair dec, DP KO/TKO, and Mas KO/TKO but who knows? Even if every one of those hit, I'm not gonna claim I "knew" it was coming LOL.
Well said. Nothing to add. You are right in everything you said.
 
You arent missing anything people are picking sherman cos hes had 2 ufc fights. I dont know why people are confident based on that i think cos hes tough people are assuming coulter drops first. Theres no way anyone can have a strong lean on this. If you are betting for degen action fair enough but i think any more than half a unit you may as well go play red or black.
Sure, I don't assume that I'm missing any specific analytical aspect, but when a bunch of experienced bettors feel like betting on Sherman, I just think it's safe to lean on that side and expect a little bit of value there. Collective betting and picking experience is on Sherman and that's good enough for me as a newbie and as I said, it might be good get burned a bit early on for betting on hype if that's the case.
 
As an American am I able to make bets if I'm visiting London?

And I never said anything about grappling. If you're who you act like you are on these forums then we are catching hands. But if you are a punk then I don't have the need to hit you but I will smack a bxtch into his place.

READ:

Keep it to the PMs don't message me here on this thread looking for help.


I assume so, if you have cash they'll take your bets, I can't imagine them asking for a passport lol
 
Sure, I don't assume that I'm missing any specific analytical aspect, but when a bunch of experienced bettors feel like betting on Sherman, I just think it's safe to lean on that side and expect a little bit of value there. Collective betting and picking experience is on Sherman and that's good enough for me as a newbie and as I said, it might be good get burned a bit early on for betting on hype if that's the case.

Experienced doesnt mean they are winners. But your money dude hope sherman wins.
 
Let me ask you directly. Do you think that Masvidal has no chance in this fight?
I favor Maia 54-46, and have 1.25u (max bet for MMA is 1.5u, some exceptions) on him at 2.12.
 
fight pass:

antigulov-christensen
antigulov is a tank. not the biggest 205 but he's strong.
christensen looks alright. as expected for the elder statesman.
chritsensen towers over antigulov, 5" taller

barzola-benitez
barzola looks solid, same as usual
benitez looks very solid.. as good as ever.
barzola 1" taller

aguilar-casey
casey looks solid as usual. good size for 115
jag weighs in fully clothed. doesn't look too fit, tho?
casey a lot bigger. 4" taller etc.

FS1:

reyes-vick
reyes looks solid. he's a bruiser.
vick super long and lean, as expected. but looks good.
vick 3+" taller

sherman-coulter
coulter looks a pretty soft. in at 241.
sherman looks solid.. he's 250
sherman is 4+" taller, definitely bigger

skelly-knight
knight lean as hell, looks good, tho. same as usual
skelly looks a bit awkward as always, but darn good for him
skelly 1" taller.. two rangey mofo's for 145.. skelly does seem like he's got a bigger frame, tho

poirier-alvarez
poirier looks awesome. he's never going back to 145.
alvarez looks shredded as hell. both dudes in amazing shape
poirier is 2" taller

PPV:

jotko-branch
branch looks outstanding.. as good as ever
jotko looks solid. same as usual for him lately. leaner than branch but looks good.
they're similarly sized

edgar-rodriguez
yair long, lean and shredded as hell, as per usual
frankie getting boo'd? what the hell!?!? he looks great, same as usual
yair is 4" taller

masvidal-maia
masvidal weighs in fully clothed. he looked good for him this morning, tho.
maia looking solid, same as usual
maia is definitely bigger. like 2-3" taller and looks a weight class bigger.

andrade-jedzrezyeaistillcan'tspellit
andrade lookin pretty jacked, definitely looks in shape (too much makeup, tho!)
JJ looks good.. i feel like she looked a little stronger in last couple fights?
JJ is 2-3" taller.. andrade doesn't look intimidated

miocic-jds
JDS looks thick.. maybe a little too thick?? but still looks excellent for a HW
stipe looks great.. both guys look in shape.
they're identically sized, as we knew


Thanks, love these every event, you have a good eye/memory. Is it still 3 fight pass fights even with the cancellations? Were there 5 fight pass fights before?
 
Yea, as for Sherman vs Coulter, it would be super embarrassing for a JacksonWink fighter who trained under Duke Roufus to got 0-3 especially if he gets knocked out by a 35-yr-old on short notice who's never beaten a winning opponent. But he's got power and a wicked long reach which makes it tricky.
You got them mixed up, its sherman whos never won against a fighter with a winning record, coulter actually has and shorter notice for sherman, coulter had a fight coming up
 
You arent missing anything people are picking sherman cos hes had 2 ufc fights. I dont know why people are confident based on that i think cos hes tough people are assuming coulter drops first. Theres no way anyone can have a strong lean on this. If you are betting for degen action fair enough but i think any more than half a unit you may as well go play red or black.

But then I wouldn't get to cheer as one man bashes another. Where's the fun in that?
 
Geez. Benitez is down to -130. Surprised no one is pounding that.
 
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