UFN 109 - Gus vs GT - Sweden

[DarkneT]

Having watched the two involved in the main events last few fights very closely
I can honestly say I'm on Gus
Sure he struggled a bit with Jan I can remember having a seriously clenched bum in that fight, but you know what? I think Jan doesn't get enough credit for at least his stand up which is the only area Gus struggled with
Now to those saying, ah but ! Gus will also struggle with Glovers stand up,
Well... that Cannonier fight didn't fill me with much trust in Glovers chin or hands for that matter
Even though I do think Rogan oversold HES HURT HES ROCKED
That time in round 1.

In both of their last fights they had easy ways to win and took them
But call me daft all you want, I think it's a stand up battle in which Gus's chin holds up better, on route to a decision or stoppage
Fuck it roll the dice

 

[michi972]

Wow, firstly I don't think its fair to call Devon Clark a bum. And what does it matter if Alvey can't throw spinning kicks lol?

Alvey is a counter puncher more than anything else and he's a good one, that's why his output is always an issue, he struggles to lead.

Nicholson outworked him in the 1st, Nicholson was winning most of the 2nd too but began to gas and started walking in with his hands down, Alvey pieced him up and stole the round. If Nicholson didn't keep pressuring Alvey towards the end of the 2nd round then he probably would of won it and the fight, bad fight IQ IMO. Alvey clearly won the 3rd but overall it was a very competitive fight no one can dispute that.

I also like Hermansson here, he's a small middleweight though and Nicholson used to fight at heavyweight. But Hermanson has the experience, the more well rounded skill set and he's fighting at home, hard to not like him at a pick'em price.

Nicholson can win if he stays on the outside and uses his kicks. Hermanson was struggling with the range and movement from Mutante, he didn't look good on the feet or the ground.

I mean that Alvey didn't look well and that close fight wasn't that impressive.

 

[Sham5916910]

Nicholson didn't impress me at all.Loss to Cirkunov no shame ko on a bum and last fight with Alvey wasn't good.Alvey is a good fighter, but he never uses his full potential, he's too stiff, sloopy, passive, he can even throw spinning kicks, decent leg kicks, but he never wanted to utilize them a lot.He looked very hesitant in Nicholson fight.Hermansson should be better striker and he is better wrestler and grappleri mo.

Hes always hesitant

 

[Big Mike]

I mean that Alvey didn't look well and that close fight wasn't that impressive.

I disagree, I think Alvey's performance vs Nicholson was good, best he's looked in a fight thats gone the distance. His output was much higher than usual.

Nicholson just did a really good job in the 1st by staying on the outside and using kicks, the elevation got to him though. At sea level I think maybe Nicholson wins that fight.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Having watched the two involved in the main events last few fights very closely
I can honestly say I'm on Gus
Sure he struggled a bit with Jan I can remember having a seriously clenched bum in that fight, but you know what? I think Jan doesn't get enough credit for at least his stand up which is the only area Gus struggled with
Now to those saying, ah but ! Gus will also struggle with Glovers stand up,
Well... that Cannonier fight didn't fill me with much trust in Glovers chin or hands for that matter
Even though I do think Rogan oversold HES HURT HES ROCKED
That time in round 1.

In both of their last fights they had easy ways to win and took them
But call me daft all you want, I think it's a stand up battle in which Gus's chin holds up better, on route to a decision or stoppage
Fuck it roll the dice

Rogan over exaggerated the shit out of it. The knee to the body was the only clean strike, glover wasn't even close to rocked. Dk how that lead should you to distrust glover hands or chin

 

[EzFlyer]

Everyone seems to be picking against Saunders here.

I'm not sure about this one yet but Saunders only seems to lose by KO/TKO, with one exception in the last 7 years(dec loss).

Sobotta has not KO/TKO'd anyone in almost 10 years, so I see his only path to victory being a grinding decision. Ben Saunders has NEVER been submitted in an MMA contest.

This may come down to cardio and positioning, unless Saunders works against the perceived better wrestling of Sobotta to keep it standing (as I do see him having the edge there).

I lean Saunders.

not everyone. i'm on saunders.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Anyone put their mortgage on Taleb yet?
No? Just me then

I favor Taleb and a number of dogs. I think the dogs are going to bark here.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Jack v. Nicholson is currently a pass for me.

Favorites I like:

Cirk
Taleb (probably my most confident)
Munhoz
Till
Held

Dogs or close
Musoki
Glover
Omari
anyone or anything on the other side of Luca

 

[ChoKuRei]

Lol nordine taleb opened up @ -600 on my books. So much for that

 

[Sham5916910]

Saunders recovers well. Robertson swarmed him with looping punches pressuring. Sabotta's lower volume ranged striking might not be a similar problem. Sabotta caught stubbyish Dalby coming in. But yeah, Saunder's is maybe my favourite TUF fighter ever, so I'm just happy to have money on him at evens.

Mcgee stunned him whos fillow fisted. Hes getting up there in age that chin aint getting any better especially with how often he gets hit every fight

 

[ChoKuRei]

Feel like this will be one of the more profitable cards this year. Might play a lot more underdogs than usual for this one...

 

[Sham5916910]

Man all this talk about Piotr Sobata and he's the dog. Someone move the line lol.

I want Saunders @ +odds.
I would be more comfortable betting on him in the US but I think he has a path to victory.
Ugly boxing + left body kick.
Piotr likes takedowns from the clinch and Ben Saunders will beat him up in the clinch and defend his takedowns imo.

Also how's the relationship between the swedes and the Germans?


This is just my opinion of course. Ben may get hurt standing and laid on for 3 rounds but I'd take the chance at +odds or make a last minute degenerate bet for action at close to evens.

Body kick not there not with the back leg anyhow and thats all saunders throws sob is a fellow spaw. Also sobs takedown of choice is the double i watched his fights from pawlik onwards and every td is a double bar one sweep from the bodylock after he caught a dalby kick. Sob is good at catching kicks/knees and with bens lanky frame doubles gonna be there all day especially when saunders pushes forward. Has ben ever fought out of america?

 

[Stunna77]

al hassan is the same price range vs akhmedov as he was vs ward

kidding me? such value in akmhedov +225

To be fair he shouldve been -500 vs Ward lol, but yeah I agree at current odds its probably dog or pass. I played Razak at the -165 openers and feel pretty good about it. Think he probably catches Omari with something heavy early.

 

[Stunna77]

I was hoping for better prices on Taleb and Misha, but now -300 & -350 are looking pretty good.

Smith/Camozzi + Musoke/Bojan overs is currently paying close to +150 on 5Dimes

 

[rille31]

Also how's the relationship between the swedes and the Germans?

I guess germans are kind of neutral to swedes but since Piotr is polish I could see him having some crowd support, huge polish population in stockholm and 3 poles on this card so Im expecting alot of polish flags on sunday.

 

[michi972]

I guess germans are kind of neutral to swedes but since Piotr is polish I could see him having some crowd support, huge polish population in stockholm and 3 poles on this card so Im expecting alot of polish flags on sunday.

Yeah, Sobotta is Polish-German, really liked in Poland.Though last time he had Jamaica flag.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I'm calling this one a premeditated loss, but I think a lot of dogs can win this weekend and the price tags are pretty profitable.

I'm gonna take my chances and spread it across the board, save for a few guys like Stasiak for example who I don't think will win.

 

[Jamah]

I'm calling this one a premeditated loss, but I think a lot of dogs can win this weekend and the price tags are pretty profitable.

I'm gonna take my chances and spread it across the board, save for a few guys like Stasiak for example who I don't think will win.

You already know it's a bad idea... why doing it then?

 

[Tebowned]

Body kick not there not with the back leg anyhow and thats all saunders throws sob is a fellow spaw. Also sobs takedown of choice is the double i watched his fights from pawlik onwards and every td is a double bar one sweep from the bodylock after he caught a dalby kick. Sob is good at catching kicks/knees and with bens lanky frame doubles gonna be there all day especially when saunders pushes forward. Has ben ever fought out of america?

He can still hit the body kick on a southpaw v Southpaw. Just like an orthodox can hit other orthodoxes with reaf body kicks. I'm not sold on either fighter but I'd bet on Ben small at dog odds or very small at close to even.

Ben fought in CAN and Germany(same night Sobota made his UFC debut).

 

[Rebel_LioN]

You already know it's a bad idea... why doing it then?

I didn't say it was a bad idea. I think it's a good idea actually. I say premeditated loss because I'm not picking winners or losers here, I'm playing the numbers in what pays the best.

I'm not gonna pay the juice for some of these fighters who I don't believe to be that great of fighters.