UFN 111 - Holm vs Correia - Singapore

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Pure insanity, +278 on Pinnacle. I dont know what's going on.

Barbarena closed +250 against Covington, Max Griffin +225, Meunier +170. Why on earth is Stun Gun +278?

Looks a bit off for sure.

Covington appears to be the complete MMA package. The guy is a stud and very confident atm.

DHK is a bit older now but still has a very impressive record. Win or lose I would assume he still has many miles on him.
 
Anyone else on Rolando Dy?

His striking seems really solid in the few fights I've watched. I also dont think Caceres should be this big of a favourite against anyone. Sure, Caceres has a path to victory by getting the fight to the ground, but can we really expect him to take the safest route and just wrestlefuck? I dont think so, I think Caceres is the type of guy who's more concerned about putting on a good show (Bruce Leroy, fighting in asia!). Im expecting a close striking match with alot of spinning shit from Caceres.
 
de tomas came in overweight and looked soft at the weigh ins.

naoki looked good.

(i have no idea how both of them normally look).
 




(Brutal head clash. *THUMP*)

I've only been looking at this Rolando kid for 10 minutes now but I can see that he is very good.

Says he's a blue belt in BJJ and has practiced wrestling for 1 year. Video puts him at being 5'9 (though he looks shorter,) not sure about reach.

Going by these videos he is clearly much quicker than Alex, very nice leg kicks. He is sturdy too, I don't think Alex will get him to the ground without some effort.

Alex's best attribute is his toughness, pretty decent gas tank too. Alex is not fast twitch, he is slow. He also has fairly crud TDD.

I expect Rolando to have a good chance of winning this on points.
 
At a glance there's some easy ones on this card.

-Arlovski or no bet. Tybura is a second rate fighter if I ever saw one, if he KO's Arlo it 's a sad indictment of the HW division. Then again, Datsik KO'd Arlo so anything is possible.


-Saffiedine, LW debut vs RDA; it would be shocking if he won.

-TUF personality Caceres now 12-10 will probably find a way to lose, no way I'd ever bet on this guy with real money. Pretty obvious the UFC's plan is to feed Alex to this 25 year old Asian kid, at that value Rolando would be my pick (even though I know nothing about him.)

-Not sure why Jingliang is such a big fav... but again I'm just looking at paper and don't know much about him or his opponent.


Addressing your points in order:


First of all, I agree the heavyweight division is shallow as a thimble of water, but I believe you are being far to hard one the Polish pugilist Tybura. Let's be fair here,

Tybura had one setback in his UD defeat during his debut and his only other loss was came via physician intervention in M-1 Global. His UFC loess was to a very underrated Timothy Johnson who is just a grizzled, durable, awkward fighter to look good against. Especially in your first UFC outing.....Dem' jitters son!

Since then he's dusted Viktor Pesta and Luis Henrique in quick succession. What's more, he's a BJJ brown belt who floats on top like a middleweight.. Then there is his versatility. He has an equal amount of victories by submission and knock out at six apiece respectively. Moreover, his six wins by submission came in a myriad of fashion. This includes 4 RNC, 1 North-South, 1 triangle armbar.

Indeed Arlovski will act as a great barometer to see exactly where the 31-year-old is at and what his ceiling is. Even though Arlovski is 38 years old he remains a crafty veteran with an extremely technical skill set. However, "The Pitbull" has countless miles on his fight odometer. Furthermore he has participated in at least 40 professional fights. Worse still, in 10 of those losses he has been forced to wake up with the assistance of smelling salts.

It's also worthy of noting that Andrei is no longer training in Albuquerque with Greg Jackson and company but instead at American Top Team. Switching camps is never a good look at his age. Also, he said he was doing it just to be closer to family. More red flags.

Just in his last four fights he's been crushed under the onslaught of a 54 second Stipe Miocic barrage, battered by Alistair Overeem, choked unconscious by Josh Barnett and and nearly had of his head knocked into the fifth row by Francis Ngannou in merely 1 minute 32 seconds.

Arlovski has always shown a suspect chin and after suffering three knockouts in four fights I don't expect it to miraculously get any better. This fight is going to end early and once again Andrei will be scraped off the floor with a spatula.

Arlovski has always shown a suspect chin and after suffering three knockouts in four fights I don't expect it to miraculously get any better. This fight is going to end early and once again Andrei will be scraped off the floor with a spatula.


Prediction: Tybura TKO r1





RDA is moving up to 170 pounds to fight that WW the other way around.

Dy is and undersize Thai striker with no ground game. His TDD is pretty bad and he has shown no grappling skills whatsoever. BLR via ko or sub as he should be able to run through him.

Li is fighting Frank Camacho. He has a deceivingly good record as he's completed on the Asian Pacific regional circuit for several years. However, he has very porous conditioning and he is taking this fight on super short notice. What's more he's moving up a division to WW as he usually competes at 155 pounds. Worse still, just a few weeks ago he was in a back and forth war that saw him knocked down and nearly choked out. He was a nano second from tapping before switching positions and instantly hitting the submission himself. This was against a far less talented fighter than the Leech.

Leech makes it look easy so long as he doesn't get caught with something crazy in the first round.
 
On Tybura, he's solid but in my eyes the talent isn't really there to begin with. Sure he can beat Arlo, any HW that can land a punch on Alro has a chance at this point.

If Alro gets KO, I will just look away. It's hard to believe the universe would be that cruel, but then why is Arlo still here after 4 straight losses. He is setting himself up it.

-

On Rolando, I like the look of him. I guess Alex can win via having an actual game-plan and executing it like a pro, i.e, getting it to the ground and choking the new guy but will he do that? Will it be that easy? I dunno, chance are he gets chewed up by leg kicks and quick punches and loses on points. To be fair Alex has faced much higher level comp and hence his record is starting to look like Mark Hunts. Regardless I don't think much of him and given the price on Rolando I'll take it or again it's a pass for me. No way I put on real money on bum Caceres who fights like he's just dicking around there half the time, no urgency, no passion, pulling dumb faces, etc, the guy is clown and I guess something of a gatekeeper now.

RDA is moving up to 170 pounds to fight that WW the other way around.

WTF... why would he do that. Conor?

Yeah obviously this changes everything. I don't have many thoughts on this fight... haven't had the time to look into it.
 
WTF... why would he do that. Conor?

His weight cuts were beyond awful and now that he's not the champ at 155 any more (or in contention given the loss to Ferg) he's moving up to have a more comfortable time.
 
His weight cuts were beyond awful and now that he's not the champ at 155 any more (or in contention given the loss to Ferg) he's moving up to have a more comfortable time.

Small next Woodley.
Tiny next to Thompson.
Tiny next to Maia.
Tiny next to Magny, Kim, Nelson, Usman, Perry, etc.

I guess his plan is to be a jobber and keeping eating BBQ.
 
Covington now at 1.30, wow. ML Odds are unplayable right now on this card :(
 
Short notice:
- Rolando Dy (in for Guan Wang) vs. Alex Caceres [1 week]
- Frank Camacho (in for Jonathan Meunier) vs. Jingliang Li [less than 1 week]

Still taking Rolando lol
 
betsafe got lb listed from the second fight, they never had lb on ufc events before
 
Dong Hyun Kim (22-3-1) vs. Colby Covington (11-1)


The former LW Champion had his career on cruise control throughout 2012-2015 winning 10 of 11 fights and absolutely slicing through his opposition like a hot knife to butter. In fact, the only blemish on the Brazilians record during that span is against Russian grappling juggernaut Khabib Nurmagomedov. During his championship run, RDA was hustling the 155 pound crown jewels of the division. Just beating on the likes of from Donald Cerrone, Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis among others..

However, since USADA affect – coincidentally or not – a plethora of Brazilian killers have gotten increasingly less scary. Including RDA. Two straight losses later and now he's moving on up like the Jeffersons. Ready to try his hand as a welterweight now.

Nevertheless, even though he's have a couple of setbacks, I'm not nowhere near writing his career epithet just yet. I mean, a bad performance against Eddie Alvarez and a competitive loss to the highly respected Tony Ferguson aren't career ending or even career plateauing performances. These fights should also be put into context. Alverez caught RDA with a short shot behind the ear that could have happened to anyone and Ferguson is a fucking animal.

Additionally, it should be noted that RDA was having tremendous success against Ferguson and had it been a three round fight he would have won a clear cut unanimous decision. An eye-poke in the second round really began to change the tide.

RDA is still a very good fighter and at just 32 years of age he can write an additional chapter to his mixed martial arts tome. Just off of skill and honorifics, the Brazilian gives himself that opportunity. As an elite level athlete, RDA he is a legitimate threat in all facets of the game. He is fast with his hands and has brutal LKs. He uses excellent footwork to box his man up from the fringe. Additionally he seamlessly transitions into blast double leg takedown and is stifling on the mat with a BJJ black belt.

A longtime student of Master Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA,The former champion is now training in Singapore with Evolve MMA with a host of killers. This includes Beneil Dariush, Bubba Jenkins, Ben Askren and a stable of Muay Thai champions and legends.

Ultimately if RDA was able to correctly put on muscle and still retain the speed and explosiveness he had as a LW then he could very well see a bit of a "Ruthless Robbie" esque renaissance of sorts up a division.

Safie is a great striker whose kickboxing is superior to 90% of his opposition. What's more, he has stupendous TDD to allow him the opportunity to ply his craft. However, he continues to lose fights that he should win.

For a bettor this is tormentingly frustrating because despite his skill set he just gives fights away with one of the worst fight IQs in the sport.

Specifically I refer to his incomprehensible strategy of putting himself BACK against the fence after doing all the hard work to give himself striking space.

In open space he is able to out strike just about every WW in the division. However, the problem is that he is almost exclusively a counter striker. This results in him continuously being on his back foot, having his opponent moving forward. He also spends lots of time languishing against the fence. This presents the perception to judges that he is losing the fight. Such is the reason he lost the DHK fight despite landing for more significant strikes. It is the Diego Sanchez and/or Leonard Garcia affect.

Additionally, he doesn't commit to any strike. He never sits down on his punches to get his opponents respect. This allows them to stay right in his face without the threat of being finished. It looks bad to the judges and it means that as a bettor you are completely dependent on him winning a decision. He hasn't had a finish since 2010. He is not going to submit the BJJ Black Belt RDA which means he needs a TKO or decision.

If RDA could survive the bombardment from Tony Ferguson and Safie hasn't put it in one away since the George Bush Jr. administration, I find it highly unlikely he he gets the finisher.

As I was researching this fight, I was checking out some early pictures on RDAs Instagram. I'll post the photos below, but suffice it to say, he looks noticeably smaller than he did even as a 155 lb. fighter against Cowboy, Benson and Showtime.

First photo (Top Left) is against Benson Henderson and the second was from this week in Singapore. Others are training pics from Singapore this past two weeks.

IMG_0150_zps4ugnvzyc.jpg

IMG_0149_zpsrvq6vzmt.jpg

In particular. Though it's hard to delineate from low quality pictures, he does look a bit soft in the midsection and his upper body has a "TRT-less Vitor" affect going on. Combine this with the fact that Saff used to compete as high as middleweight and this could be a real problem for RDA to deal with.

The main reason that I even entertain such thoughts is because of the DHK tilt. We already know Saff has excellent defensive grappling and TDD is fantastic, but it was his offensive grappling and successful tussling exchanges with DHK that surprised me. Not only was he shutting everything DHK tried to do down, but he was getting the better of the clinch fighting against a Judoka black belt. A virtual octopus who has manhandled almost everyone he has locked horns with this side of Rory MacDonald and Demien Maia.

Still, RDA should theoretically be able to put pressure on Saff and out-point him. Saff simply doesn't put any smoke on his strikes to dissuade the Brazilian from entering the pocket to engage.

I do like RDA to get the victory here, but there's no way I can lay the juice with so many variables. In fact. I'm going to take a flier on the Saff via decision prop.


PREDICTION: RDA be a decision.

BET: Saff by DEC + o2.5

Strange Colby vs DHK breakdown
 
Scpggins made weight but Filipino Cj did not.

Main Card (8 AM ET/5 AM PT)

Holly Holm (135) vs. Bethe Correia (136)
Andrei Arlovski (242) vs. Marcin Tybura (243)
Colby Covington (171) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (171)
Rafael dos Anjos (170) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (170)

Preliminary Card (4:45 AM ET/1:45 AM PT)

Takanori Gomi (156) vs. Jon Tuck (156)
Cyril Asker (245) vs. Walt Harris (249)
Alex Caceres (146) vs. Rolando Dy (146)
Ulka Sasaki (125) vs. Justin Scoggins (126)
Frank Camacho (169) vs. Li Jingliang (170)
Russell Doane (135) vs. Kwan Ho Kwak (136)
Carls John de Tomas (131*) vs. Naoki Inoue (124)
Ji Yeon Kim (136) vs. Lucie Pudilova (134)
 
Hopefully that Betsafe intern who's in charge of releasing early lines manages their livebetting too!
 
Small next Woodley.
Tiny next to Thompson.
Tiny next to Maia.
Tiny next to Magny, Kim, Nelson, Usman, Perry, etc.

I guess his plan is to be a jobber and keeping eating BBQ.

rda claims that he weighs close to 200 pounds in-between fights

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post usada dos anjos is delusional. 5'8" guys generally dont do well at 170 unless you have the natural frame to go with it like 5'9" woodley, hughes or hendricks who wrestled 165 in college
 
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