UFN 112 - Chiesa vs Lee - Oklahoma City

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Nice, I'm with you on all of them.

Really like Chiesa here, as you say he's bigger, more durable and I think he can push a pace that Lee can't match. Lee is young and constantly improving but for me there's questions of his chin. He got finished by Santos who dropped him, mounted him then punished him with punches as Lee gave up his back in rushing to stand up. Lee had a great come from behind win vs Trinaldo but he was badly hurt and I think most thought he was done for as he got back to his stool. Even more concerning was how when hurt he turned into a panic wrestler, shooting from miles out.

Don't think that'll play well against Chiesa who although not great defensively has come a decent way in his stand up. I think the way Chiesa throws punches will cause issues for Lee, a lot of straight punches similar to what got him caught against Santos. If memory serves, Chiesa dropped Masvidal with a similar punch.

Lee usually has a 5-7 inch reach advantage (77" reach). He won't have that here as Chiesa is 76" reach and one of the few taller opponents Lee has fought (the other main one being Santos, both 6'1", Santos also being the only fighter Lee faced with a reach over 73" (Santos 75" - every other opponent other than Tuck was 67"-72" and around the same height as Lee).

I don't like the way Lee gives up his back when in trouble, against Chiesa that's a death sentence. He gave it up against Santos (who kept punching instead and got the TKO) and against Trinaldo his lazy shots when hurt ended in him being easily sprawled on and Trinaldo electing not to take it.

Chiesa is one of the best backtakers in MMA and adept at finishing the fight when he gets it, no doubt in my mind had it been Chiesa in those 2 spots, he'd have been sinking in a RNC.

This turned into an essay, but I think Lee may struggle with Chiesa pace, durability, size and long punches. I see him getting hurt and defaulting to his wrestling in the 2nd or 3rd when he starts to tire and Lee giving up his back and being choked out shortly afterwards.


I'm on Chiesa, but think Lee's striking is going to give Chiesa fits. I feel Chiesa will get it done by causing a scramble situation, which he has the killer instinct in. This fight is 5 rounds, so I feel Lee will fade as it goes on.

But I am scared shitless of Lee flatlining Chiesa
 
Tall & skinny with no wrestling background vs a good wrestler often translates into: tall and skinny horizontal

...but I'm thinking about taking a shot on her.
Moroz has been decent at stopping takedowns, and I don't think carla is a great wrestler. Carla only has one path to victory and moroz knows that.

I think moroz sticks and moves to a boring decision.
 
I'm embarrassed to even post this but last night right before the chandler-Primus fight, I bet $25 on marfone to win $165 by accident thinking I was betting on primus. I'm sick
 
I like Quinones as a dog here! Confident in that pick! Then I have Penn, but not so confident lol. But then Cheisa as well. 3 dogs could very well bark tonight.
 
i have no idea why hendricks is a bigger favorite on the ko prop than tim. makes no sense. he had leites in trouble in both the first and second round before he got submitted.

and who the fuk eats at mcdonalds. that food is horrible
Tim is usually first to make cruical mistakes when someone fights him toe-to-toe, but yeah, I would not bet on Hendricks to do that at current odds.
 
Moroz has been decent at stopping takedowns, and I don't think carla is a great wrestler. Carla only has one path to victory and moroz knows that.

I think moroz sticks and moves to a boring decision.
Moroz has not stopped a single takedown on her UFC career, but neither has Esparza lately looked too good with her top control. Moroz has reasonable change winning decision.
 
Moroz has not stopped a single takedown on her UFC career, but neither has Esparza lately looked too good with her top control. Moroz has reasonable change winning decision.
Honestly, a rule of betting should be never bet someone with zero tdd vs a wrestler.
 
Garcia dec has spiked all the way up to +1000.
I'm on means itd but I think I have to stab here.
I was just about to comment and say how I liked Garcia DEC at +1000. I went to go bet and it is now +1250... 0.5u


EDIT: I do also have some Tim Means in a parlay at -240 and ITD straight -120. I'm now essentially on "Not Garcia ITD"
 
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i'm going to have to pull the trigger on herrig as a dog, kish is skilled but fights like a moron - i don't anticipate that to change.
 
NOT Chiesa/Lee FOTN at -245 is pretty tempting. At the very least it's a definite freeroll for anyone who hit the opener
 
Honestly, a rule of betting should be never bet someone with zero tdd vs a wrestler.
Heh, sounds like a solid advice, but to be a good underdog bettor one has to break rules every now and then. Also I'm not sure the tdd% is an accurate measurement in this case and Esparza has not been focused in her wrestling after Joanna-beating. I bet on those assumptions after watching tape and added a bit after listening to Vivi. Zane Simon thought that Esparza's game has been off and he often has a good eye for those things.
 
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Moroz has been decent at stopping takedowns, and I don't think carla is a great wrestler. Carla only has one path to victory and moroz knows that.

I think moroz sticks and moves to a boring decision.

Shes not been decent dude you cant make stuff up she has 0% tdd
 
i'm going to have to pull the trigger on herrig as a dog, kish is skilled but fights like a moron - i don't anticipate that to change.
Kish leaves so many openings on the ground, in addition to being vulnerable to TDs. She does a lot of white belt, spazzy stuff to escape on the ground, and with her size and strength she got away with it. If she's underneath Herrig.. big trouble.

As far as Moroz/Esparza, I'll just say this - I don't think much of Moroz at all. Esparza in defeat, which was debatable, looked much better than Moroz in her past two victories.
 
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