UFC 213 - Nunes vs Shevchenko II - Vegas

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Just seen the odds on Omielanczuk and put 1U on him at +500, if I goes past +550 I'll put more on him.

Daniel is tough so can't see him getting finished early here and despite Blaydes having more potential, he's not been I'm there with anyone decent other than Francis who was dominating him prior to the doctor stoppage. Daniels been in there with a much higher standard of opposition than Blaydes has (outside of Ngannou) and although Blaydes has a clear path to win let's be real in this, his best wins so far are Milstead and Cody East.

At HW I'm generally happy to play big underdogs unless it's the cream of the crop against some sap, but at HW in a battle of mid-tier fighters I'll take the vet with a lower ceiling who has proven to be scrappy and durable and make fights close at massive odds rather than a huge favourite who has had a handful of fights and not really beaten anyone of note (although obviously looked great in his last fight).

It might not win since Blaydes is obviously a favourite here but that line is out of whack. Cain vs Bigfoot 2 closed at +500 on a lot of sites (lowest +450, highest +575), this isn't that level.

I reckon worst case scenario I'll be able to live bet Blaydes and freeroll it at some point if I wanted.
 
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Terrion Ware
-31 years old, 5.8", 17-5(6kos and 3 subs)
-Bamma,IFS,CXF champion
-Kyokushin Karate black belt, purple belt bjj

Promo vid:


Some fight vids
Last fight


(scroll 1.37)

2015 boxing vid




Cody Stamann
-28 years old, 5.7", 13-1 (5kos,2 subs)
-Called out dana white to get into ufc
-top prospect from US
-Michigan top team camp, wrestling background

Some vids here:
Last fight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEabsZFZRXM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oT4qgFrk65g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hsEtIZrxsQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J3HmeOmjpc
HL reel older fights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzB49MxVMWc
 
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Interviews with above new guys added last minute to fight card
Cody Stamann:

-was unable to disclose his ufc debut and fight due to it coming about so fast
-KOP fighter, was taken care of with them and discusses their talent from there organisation
-Taken fw fight due to 9 day notice, both guys don't want to cut too much weight so chose this weight
-wants to go back to bw later on this is his main weight class
-says his opponent is similar match up (Terrion) buy says he is more well rounded, kickboxer, boxer
-says terrion is known for being a boxer but that's it
-always in gym, wanted to be in ufc for ages, always in shape
-both have same manager with his opponent
-trains smart to avoid injury
-likes to read health books to prepare better
-plans to make weight and beat someone up


Terrion Ware

-was already training so ready for his ufc short notice debut
-his ko of last fight ufc vet papazin
-says short notice they did not want both guys to kill themselves on weight cut
-says Cody is a good match up, says hes good with wrestlers and well rounded also and known he likes to bang and strike more. Says he match ups well with him.
-training hard and maintaining his strength
-has his boxing and mma coach in his corner
-he wishes for a finish wants a ko but if he keeps shooting on him he will look for a sub.
 
DarkneT said:
Browne by decision is my favourite bet on this card at moment
Can see him playing it super safe
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thought about that one. maybe, yea. can't fault a shot at +680.
 
props going up. think i like a stab at andrade dec +425.
 
don't get me wrong, i'm not saying i can't see a santos KO or a meerschaert sub, not remotely, but goes 3 +425? think we have some value here.

or take your pick of santos +650 dec or meershcart +1090?

sidenote: meerschaert has never been ko'd...
 
Hope it plays even though it's listed as "Browen." They should just be able to correct it.

I'm still on the Mein side of that fight, so I'm liking his DEC line
 
Shoulder said:
Im putting 0.1U at draw @67.00 in the ME. I can easily see either Nunes getting a 10-8 early or Shev late which will make the draw if not probable but at least possible.
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Yep, I hit that the other day. The funny thing is that I don't really see this going to a decision many times, but if it does happen, I think the fight ends in a draw a good amount of times. I can see the scenario where Nunes wins the first 2 rounds with 1 of them being a 10-8 (Most likely the 1st round) and Shev wins the last 3 all 10-9 OR where Nunes wins the first 3 rounds 10-9 and Shev wins the last 2 with one of them being a 10-8 (Most likely the 5th)


Very small play for me, but I had to at +6000. I think it happens more than 1.6% of the time here
 
quincy k said:
+680 is not going to hold
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Threw 20 at it

10 on omiel by decision as well. Crazy line

2 bucks on schevy nunes draw to win 100. Seriously doubt it hits but Why not?
 
ill800 said:
Threw 20 at it

10 on omiel by decision as well. Crazy line

2 bucks on schevy nunes draw to win 100. Seriously doubt it hits but Why not?
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i took that at +1360. he was one td away from arguably beating anthony johnson and i dont know if blaydes has better td than anthony
 
quincy k said:
i took that at +1360. he was one td away from arguably beating anthony johnson and i dont know if blaydes has better td than anthony
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The guy is a grinder, no doubt about it. Worth a stab at that price
 
Holy cow at that Laprise number! Several physical advantages for Camozzi, short notice for Laprise and a layoff. Completely crossed this fight off my list, but may have to reexamine this now.
 
quincy k said:
i took that at +1360. he was one td away from arguably beating anthony johnson and i dont know if blaydes has better td than anthony
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Omie never fought AJ, are you thinking Timothy Johnson? If so, hell yes Blaydes has better TDs than Johnson. Timmy while having great wrestling credentials really only has clinch trips, Blaydes has the best blast double in the division IMO.

ill800 said:
The guy is a grinder, no doubt about it. Worth a stab at that price
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When has Omie ever tried a grinding approach? He's definitely been grinded on, Rosholt, Hamilton, and Johnson all did rather easily. If you're taking a shot on Omie I strongly disagree that decision is the way to go. He's always struggled with wrestlers as his getups suck, only way I see him winning is a flash KO.
 
Nunes vs Shevchenko

Quick thoughts. Shevchenko slowly takes this fight over and scores a mid to late submission finish, 3rd or 4th round. Shevchenko has the more precise, less exhausting striking style and is confident enough countering that I think she can keep Nunes honest early in the fight. Later in the fight she will score a tricky clinch takedown, or reverse a takedown like in their last fight and scrambles to mount and pull off a sub.

Odds are from sportsinteraction, admittedly they may be a bit more favorable than most books:

Shevchenko ML - 1.95 / -105 2 units
Shevchenko Sub - 5.25 / +425 0.5 units
Shevchenko Rd 3 - 11 / +1000 0.5 units
Shevchenko Rd 4 - 19 / +1800 0.4 units
Nunes Rd 1 - 6.5 / +550 0.5 units
 
JDB said:
@MMA Goodfella, I'm just kidding with ya, I've been leaning towards Robert since I heard about this fight.

Not that I'm counting out Romero, if Rob makes one mistake it could be over for him. Romero has a way of pulling it out victories, he's just super dangerous for anyone right now.
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Lol you sneaky bitch. Should have known it was a lie when I seen Donald Trump's face. LOL

How do you see the fight playing out?
 
I remember their first fight quite well, and have gone over some of their more recent fights. Everything I come across seems to fit with rather than cut down this theory.
 
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