yeah his price might shorten before the fight as well which would in turn shorten it even more in play if he did secure a takedown early.
Kennedy had a lot of ring rust in that fight and I think weidman will do a lot better from that position with his size advantage, not to mention his top game. I'm not even worried about his cardio all that much, he gassed in the moose fight mainly because of moose's get ups from the bottom, and then re attempting the takedowns. it's likely he will be in better shape this time anyway. I'm not sure kelvin is big enough to do the same, and if he does that will also tax his cardio more than it did moose's.
And despite weidman losing 3 in a row, this will still be the biggest fight gastelum has ever been in, and wins over belfort and the ghost of johny hendricks don't look as good in hindsight, not too mention when he struggled against magny on the ground..