UFN 113 - Ponzinibbio vs Nelson - Scotland

[quincy k]

Gunnar started against tumenov with high output and was outstriking him but his output dropped fairly quickly

i think ponzi can be a good live bet in a five round fight for the reasons that you stated.

imo, tds are a lot harder than tdd in the later rounds. would like to see gunni dominate the first and then ponzi to be offered in the high 200s.

 

[Ballsaque]

Top MMA Analyst gives his predictions

Please stop

 

[SBJJ]

You don't even need to sign up, he used to charge for his picks but he's such a great guy that he gives them for free now, ZeesMMA very confident in Paul Felder.

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[SBJJ]

i think ponzi can be a good live bet in a five round fight for the reasons that you stated.

imo, tds are a lot harder than tdd in the later rounds. would like to see gunni dominate the first and then ponzi to be offered in the high 200s.

Hard to imagine Ponz lasting on bottom for extended periods of time. Gunnie G&P has gotten kinda nasty. It's like elbows to face or give up your back. Pick your poison

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Ok so I reluctantly placed a 2 unit parlay with Pantoja/Smith, usually I don't bet on bums this is the only parlay I like for this card, considered Marshman but theres no value on his number. Feel real dirty bout parlaying a 500 fighter too.

Also my boy ZeesMMA all over Felder, wish I had the same confidence. Ray vs Felder has split decision written all over it, hard to bet against the hometown guy in a fight like this, line could not be more on point. If this was in the States then I would feel better about Felder but it's not.

 

[quincy k]

Hard to imagine Ponz lasting on bottom for extended periods of time. Gunnie G&P has gotten kinda nasty. It's like elbows to face or give up your back. Pick your poison

i think gunni ill get him down in the first round and less likely in the second. thats the reason ive held off betting him.

 

[vkram]

Hard to take anyone serious who bets 10 dollars a unit

Not particularly, if he has good insight then he has good insight - the amount he bets has no effect on that.

 

[ill800]

U guys really think ground is even? No way I see that.

Also how does chin go to Ray?

After watching the lauzon fight, I'd have to give chin to ray, he survived a brutal opening round. Not many guys can take that, let alone come back and win the fight. Felder has been "finished" before. It's nitpicking

Ray also gets high marks on the ground for surviving some horrible positions against joe. Felder was able to catch Cruikshank but that's not saying much. He gave him that rnc.

We haven't seen much of either on the ground so I just said even

I didn't include wrestling and tdd. I'd have to watch more of their fights for that. Honestly I dont think it's going to the ground, even though ray has mentioned it. Right now I'dfive felder the advantage in both

Again, this is only after watching a few fights.

I wanted to like dog felder but after watching them both I see felder getting out volumed and think he's more likely to be caught with the bigger punches. his defense isn't nearly as tight.

Felder throws full power in all his shots. Ray mixes it up. Hell give you a few Diaz bros shots and then throw a hard overhand or hook. He goes to the body as well

Very evenly matched

This is absolutely a pickem but I'm on the hometown kid right now.

 

[Cord]

I'd say a low unit bet does not tell me about someone ability about finding value in bookies lines. However the question is "if they're so good in predicting results then why don't they try to profit more from that". And also why would they bother doing proper analysis for hours if the most favourable outcome was to win a few dollars.

I still have mixed feelings around trusting low rollers.
Any opinion can be food for thought maybe, but these days information is like food, you want to discern what you take on board.

 

[Thunderflash500]

I bet $130 on Gunner. I have confidence he will win one way or another.

 

[ill800]

I'm in for a unit on ray. His line keeps going up

 

[Ballsaque]

Luca Fury is a solid bettor and Ponz is a solid fighter but I am done doubting Gunnar Nelson, I always think his opponents have a chance but then he goes and crushes them. Gunnar Nelson is something special and it's clear that he has made jumps in his game, can Ponz really survive 5 with such a dangerous finisher, my guess is no.

No luca fury is not a solid bettor. Is there some way we could make you stop posting? Thank you.

 

[burge13]

I'm amazed people care about Luca. Dude's a basement dwelling, mouth breather who sniffs the bike seats at the gym when girls finish their session. Weirdo of the highest order. Move on people

 

[Joseph Budden]

Had to throw a full unit on Ponz dec cause of those nice prices (+650, +600, +550)

 

[ill800]

No luca fury is not a solid bettor. Is there some way we could make you stop posting? Thank you.

He's been pretty solid over the last year. There's really no arguing that. He's had some good bets (Whitaker over Souza) but I didn't need to pay someone to tell me that.

He plays it safe, most of the time.

I think he's a complete tool but his success this past year is something that can't be argued

He and his minions move lines pretty dramatically. So that's why he's relevant in betting discussions.

 

[EzFlyer]

Had to throw a full unit on Ponz dec cause of those nice prices (+650, +600, +550)

yea i don't hate those. thought about it and passed(balked?)

i took a lil jojo dec +460 and marshamn itd -131 (second-guessing myself on the latter)

 

[jjwvic]

So fury doesn't mean shit to half the people here but people that pull 45 cents out of their old tube socks do? If you are good you bet more than 50 dollars on a bet! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills, either that or sherdog is on food stamps for the most part

 

[jjwvic]

I'd say a low unit bet does not tell me about someone ability about finding value in bookies lines. However the question is "if they're so good in predicting results then why don't they try to profit more from that". And also why would they bother doing proper analysis for hours if the most favourable outcome was to win a few dollars.

I still have mixed feelings around trusting low rollers.
Any opinion can be food for thought maybe, but these days information is like food, you want to discern what you take on board.

That's all I'm saying. Why listen to some dude betting 30 bucks on a whole card? If you are good and consistent you can already get to the 500 dollar range within 6 months or so. And if you are so bad at your day job that you don't have that cash? Well then I freaking doubt you are a good bettor. Making six figures isn't that hard

 

[burge13]

So fury doesn't mean shit to half the people here but people that pull 45 cents out of their old tube socks do? If you are good you bet more than 50 dollars on a bet! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills, either that or sherdog is on food stamps for the most part

what if someone is bad but has more $. You'll take his $10k bet as gospel but ignore a winner who can only afford $50 and is building a bankroll. Sounds like a one way ticket to the poor house following that strategy

 

[Antagonist88]

So fury doesn't mean shit to half the people here but people that pull 45 cents out of their old tube socks do? If you are good you bet more than 50 dollars on a bet! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills, either that or sherdog is on food stamps for the most part

You gotta start somewhere man. Unless you still have that silver spoon in your mouth you can't just start at 5 figure bets; you had to start out with small unit sizes to build up to that point. And it's a serious grind to build a bankroll.

Units are completely relative so it does not matter at all how much they are. It's still 1% of a bankroll. If I've been broke my whole life, naturally my starting bankroll would be less than someone else's. But it would not at all mean that their insight is worth more.

But anyways, I digress. Don't like many of these prop lines. Small play on Calderwood DEC +400, and tempted to throw a dart on Craig DEC +1425 for action but will likely pass. Already bet Khalil at evens and the under so it'd pretty much be a terrible hedge.