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Three bets that I like that have been discussed much and why I like them.
Jack Marshman is an absolute throwback. The British brawler has gained a mass of fanatics who love his "just bleed" style. Indeed, the man is never in a boring fight and is willing to lay it all on the line each time out. While he is chaotic at times, he remains technically proficient more often than not with the sweet science being his base. Jack Marshmann works behind a stiff jab and the confidence of his chin to enter the pocket and rip off tight hooks with both hands. Marshmann has tremendous punching power as demonstrated by his resume. Specifically he's picked up 13 of his 21 wins via knockout. One those TKO victories came against the highly touted Magnus Cedenblad whom Marshmann slept in the second round.
Ryan Janes is is about as vanilla a fighter as it gets in modern mixed martial arts. Basically he is able to have a job fighting for a living based on solid fundamentals and outstanding cardio. His striking is mediocre at best and downright feckless and pitiable at worst. While he does have a stiff job and can't string to gather meaningful offense, he stands far too upright and leaves his chin out there to get clipped in every performance. His best asset is his grappling game as he is a BJJ black belt. However, the Canuck doesn't possess the wrestling chops to bring his opponent to the mat where he can utilize his chief skill set. Nevertheless, Janes has been able to ply his trade consistently on the regional circuit where he has racked up 7 of his 9 victories by submission. Additionally, all but one them have been via his rear naked choke. .
Quite simply, Janes is not UFC material. There are very few fighters at this level that he can best and he is fortunate enough to fight in a division that is shallow as a thimble full of water once you get outside of the top 15. As mentioned earlier, he gets hit far too easily and Marshmann possesses monstrous power. Expect Janes to ultimately get hit with a shot that looks like it was thrown down like a lightning bolt cast by Zeus himself.
Pick: Jack Marshman by TKO/KO
I got Marshmann via TKO at -120 – many got him at + money and I was even late on the trigger here – but I believe he still holds value all the way up to -200 in this method.as I believe that he starches the Canadian ITD around 80% of the time.
Bet: Jack Marshman via TKO at -148 risking 3.28 units
Stepping in on short notice for Muay-Thai striker Lina Landsberg is UFC newcomer Amanda Lemos. The debutante will be making her Bantamweight appearance against the ultimate blood-and guts-warrior Leslie Smith.
While her 9-6 record is substandard, it is a bit miss leading as Smith has been a take on all comers type of fighter often competing above her natural weight class and repeatedly excepting bouts on short notice. Nevertheless, Smith it's a veteran UFC fighter with a well-rounded skill set. A talented striker who is consistently on her front foot, Smith often breaks her opponents through sheer will and aggression. Marching forward like a virtual zombie she is able to force a brawl out of finesse strikers. Still yeah, her skill set is limited and a shoe lax in speed, quickness and athleticism.
Smith is coming off a victory to continue her trend of alternating wins and losses over her last six contests.
Lemos is a formidable striker in her own right possessing a bit more pop in her punches then Smith. Five of the freshman's fighters outings were ended early with the knockout. The biggest problem with Lemos however is that she has yet to face even a hint of quality opposition thus Certainly, Smith will be her toughest opponent to date in her abbreviated MMA tenure.
Stylistically, neither fighter is a formidable grappling specialist although if it were to go to the mat I believe the advantage goes to Smith. With decent takedowns, Smith is heavy on top and does possess some vicious ground and pound. Additionally, Smith is knowledgeable in procuring and defending submissions. The same cannot be said for Lemos who has shown no history of ground fighting in six fight career nor is she credentialed outside of it.
Ultimately this should be a back-and-forth barnburner of a contest where both ladies take each other to the woodshed for 15 minutes. We know for a fact that Smith has the durability to go the full three. Though generally not interested in the grappling arts, we may see a crafty Smith lean on her experience and hit some reactive takedowns to seal close rounds. It's quite possible that in one of these takedowns she is able to snatch a submission. With a submission prop as high as +1000 I believe it's worth a flier for value and even more so for action.
Granted, Smith has never notched a submission victory in her 15 fight professional career. However, she has competed almost exclusively against high-level opposition and this will be her lowest level opponent in years. What's more, she trains out of the Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu camp and is a BJJ Purple belt under the titular Gracie. What's more, let's not forget that up until a week ago UFC veteran Tecia Torres had never secured ANY type of finish in NINE appearances. Now she has ZERO KOs, ONE Submission, EIGHT Decisions and millions of busted parlays!
Putting money on either one of these women is a recipe for disaster.
Prediction Smith via split decision victory
Former Cage Warriors Fighting Championship and Titan Fighting Championships Bantamweight Champion Will make his 14th professional MMA appearance tomorrow afternoon as he aims to remain undefeated. At 13-0, four 135 pounds Welchman was successful in his UFC debut after picking up multiple victories all the regional circuit against extremely high level of position outside of a premier promotion. Specifically, Johns has defeated the highly talented TUF veteranr Anthony Gutierrez along with former UFC competitor Waiel Watson prior to entering the octagon. The young 25-year-old is extremely well rounded with a serviceable striking game and a formidable grappling attack. The Welsh fighter is a Black belt in Judo and a Purple belt in BJJ. That strong Judo base and quick hips allow him to dictate where the flight takes place. Johns also has a credentialed background in Muay Thai.
Taking a fight on just two weeks notice is California's Albert Morales. An aggressive striker, Morales is perpetually on his front foot stalking his adversary looking for a firefight. With his fan friendly style, Morales will fire off a bevy of heavy punching combos as brutal low leg kicks. The problem for Morales is that his run-and-gun offense is both a blessing and a curse. While he is capable of getting his opponent out of there fast, he also leaves himself vulnerable to counters. This is both true in relation striking and takedowns as he often finds himself out of position. This is not preferable against a wrestler the caliber of Johns.
Honestly, if it weren't for the two weeks notice, I would probably put a flier on Morales as I believe that this number has gone to inflated. That said, Morales is coming in without having even a modicum of a respectable training camp and across Atlantic flight is it going to help the situation.
That said, one bet that I do believe holds value in this matchup is the under 2.5 rounds prop. I believe that if Morales is to beat Johns, he's going to have to take him out before the final horn. I also think he realizes this. As such, I expect Morales to come out extra aggressive trying to get Johns out of there early. If this strategy fails to materialize and "The Pikey" is still there after the first frame, I believe that it turns into a one-sided grappling contest. I realize that Morales is a serviceable grappler himself with a BJJ purple belt, but his cardio is unlikely to hold up. Anticipate him running out of steam and then getting choked out shortly thereafter.
Either way, one I think one of these two fighters finds the finish in this situation. With the betting line where it is I have to make a small wager.
Prediction: Brett Johns via second round submission.
Bet under 2.5 at +260 for 1.5u
Jack Marshman vs. Ryan Janes
Jack Marshman is an absolute throwback. The British brawler has gained a mass of fanatics who love his "just bleed" style. Indeed, the man is never in a boring fight and is willing to lay it all on the line each time out. While he is chaotic at times, he remains technically proficient more often than not with the sweet science being his base. Jack Marshmann works behind a stiff jab and the confidence of his chin to enter the pocket and rip off tight hooks with both hands. Marshmann has tremendous punching power as demonstrated by his resume. Specifically he's picked up 13 of his 21 wins via knockout. One those TKO victories came against the highly touted Magnus Cedenblad whom Marshmann slept in the second round.
Ryan Janes is is about as vanilla a fighter as it gets in modern mixed martial arts. Basically he is able to have a job fighting for a living based on solid fundamentals and outstanding cardio. His striking is mediocre at best and downright feckless and pitiable at worst. While he does have a stiff job and can't string to gather meaningful offense, he stands far too upright and leaves his chin out there to get clipped in every performance. His best asset is his grappling game as he is a BJJ black belt. However, the Canuck doesn't possess the wrestling chops to bring his opponent to the mat where he can utilize his chief skill set. Nevertheless, Janes has been able to ply his trade consistently on the regional circuit where he has racked up 7 of his 9 victories by submission. Additionally, all but one them have been via his rear naked choke. .
Quite simply, Janes is not UFC material. There are very few fighters at this level that he can best and he is fortunate enough to fight in a division that is shallow as a thimble full of water once you get outside of the top 15. As mentioned earlier, he gets hit far too easily and Marshmann possesses monstrous power. Expect Janes to ultimately get hit with a shot that looks like it was thrown down like a lightning bolt cast by Zeus himself.
Pick: Jack Marshman by TKO/KO
I got Marshmann via TKO at -120 – many got him at + money and I was even late on the trigger here – but I believe he still holds value all the way up to -200 in this method.as I believe that he starches the Canadian ITD around 80% of the time.
Bet: Jack Marshman via TKO at -148 risking 3.28 units
Leslie Smith (9-7-1) vs. Amanda Lemos (6-0-1)
Stepping in on short notice for Muay-Thai striker Lina Landsberg is UFC newcomer Amanda Lemos. The debutante will be making her Bantamweight appearance against the ultimate blood-and guts-warrior Leslie Smith.
While her 9-6 record is substandard, it is a bit miss leading as Smith has been a take on all comers type of fighter often competing above her natural weight class and repeatedly excepting bouts on short notice. Nevertheless, Smith it's a veteran UFC fighter with a well-rounded skill set. A talented striker who is consistently on her front foot, Smith often breaks her opponents through sheer will and aggression. Marching forward like a virtual zombie she is able to force a brawl out of finesse strikers. Still yeah, her skill set is limited and a shoe lax in speed, quickness and athleticism.
Smith is coming off a victory to continue her trend of alternating wins and losses over her last six contests.
Lemos is a formidable striker in her own right possessing a bit more pop in her punches then Smith. Five of the freshman's fighters outings were ended early with the knockout. The biggest problem with Lemos however is that she has yet to face even a hint of quality opposition thus Certainly, Smith will be her toughest opponent to date in her abbreviated MMA tenure.
Stylistically, neither fighter is a formidable grappling specialist although if it were to go to the mat I believe the advantage goes to Smith. With decent takedowns, Smith is heavy on top and does possess some vicious ground and pound. Additionally, Smith is knowledgeable in procuring and defending submissions. The same cannot be said for Lemos who has shown no history of ground fighting in six fight career nor is she credentialed outside of it.
Ultimately this should be a back-and-forth barnburner of a contest where both ladies take each other to the woodshed for 15 minutes. We know for a fact that Smith has the durability to go the full three. Though generally not interested in the grappling arts, we may see a crafty Smith lean on her experience and hit some reactive takedowns to seal close rounds. It's quite possible that in one of these takedowns she is able to snatch a submission. With a submission prop as high as +1000 I believe it's worth a flier for value and even more so for action.
Granted, Smith has never notched a submission victory in her 15 fight professional career. However, she has competed almost exclusively against high-level opposition and this will be her lowest level opponent in years. What's more, she trains out of the Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu camp and is a BJJ Purple belt under the titular Gracie. What's more, let's not forget that up until a week ago UFC veteran Tecia Torres had never secured ANY type of finish in NINE appearances. Now she has ZERO KOs, ONE Submission, EIGHT Decisions and millions of busted parlays!
Putting money on either one of these women is a recipe for disaster.
Prediction Smith via split decision victory
Brett Johns (13-0) vs. Albert Morales (7-1-1)
Former Cage Warriors Fighting Championship and Titan Fighting Championships Bantamweight Champion Will make his 14th professional MMA appearance tomorrow afternoon as he aims to remain undefeated. At 13-0, four 135 pounds Welchman was successful in his UFC debut after picking up multiple victories all the regional circuit against extremely high level of position outside of a premier promotion. Specifically, Johns has defeated the highly talented TUF veteranr Anthony Gutierrez along with former UFC competitor Waiel Watson prior to entering the octagon. The young 25-year-old is extremely well rounded with a serviceable striking game and a formidable grappling attack. The Welsh fighter is a Black belt in Judo and a Purple belt in BJJ. That strong Judo base and quick hips allow him to dictate where the flight takes place. Johns also has a credentialed background in Muay Thai.
Taking a fight on just two weeks notice is California's Albert Morales. An aggressive striker, Morales is perpetually on his front foot stalking his adversary looking for a firefight. With his fan friendly style, Morales will fire off a bevy of heavy punching combos as brutal low leg kicks. The problem for Morales is that his run-and-gun offense is both a blessing and a curse. While he is capable of getting his opponent out of there fast, he also leaves himself vulnerable to counters. This is both true in relation striking and takedowns as he often finds himself out of position. This is not preferable against a wrestler the caliber of Johns.
Honestly, if it weren't for the two weeks notice, I would probably put a flier on Morales as I believe that this number has gone to inflated. That said, Morales is coming in without having even a modicum of a respectable training camp and across Atlantic flight is it going to help the situation.
That said, one bet that I do believe holds value in this matchup is the under 2.5 rounds prop. I believe that if Morales is to beat Johns, he's going to have to take him out before the final horn. I also think he realizes this. As such, I expect Morales to come out extra aggressive trying to get Johns out of there early. If this strategy fails to materialize and "The Pikey" is still there after the first frame, I believe that it turns into a one-sided grappling contest. I realize that Morales is a serviceable grappler himself with a BJJ purple belt, but his cardio is unlikely to hold up. Anticipate him running out of steam and then getting choked out shortly thereafter.
Either way, one I think one of these two fighters finds the finish in this situation. With the betting line where it is I have to make a small wager.
Prediction: Brett Johns via second round submission.
Bet under 2.5 at +260 for 1.5u