UFC 214 - Jones vs Cormier II - Anaheim

[Gugabe]

I personally can't see how Lamas gets further into underdog odds, though I said the same thing at 1.8. I even think there's value on Lamas ITD, since Knight definitely leaves himself open to get subbed or TKO'd whilst relying on an aggressive guard rather than scrambling fundamentals.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

max bet ortega NSC -137 and -145 both

Damnit EZ! One of us is going to lose a bit of money given that I have the Brazilian as my most confident pick as anything below -165 that is. Rarely will I pay more, you have to be prime Anderson Silva or Jon Jones for me to pay that juice LOL Looking at you @mkess

I'll try and explain. First, I just went through the entire Brian Ortega UFC catalogue and boy-oh-boy has he been fortunate at times!

Specifically in the third and final round, as "T-City" must get all the stoop in round two with a lucky rabbits foot and a four leaf clover tucked away somewhere.

He is basically the 145 pounds division version of Yoel Romero. Both are notorious slow starters who get behind on the cards only to pull out the improbable in the final stanza. For his part, Ortega has hit three consecutive third round finishes, after dropping the first two frames.

While a lot of it comes down to Ortegas outstanding conditioning and heart, much of it is the folly of his opposition. Terrible fight IQ and strange circumstances have allowed him to continually snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Not only were his last three victories in the third and final round, but he went right up against the clock kidding stops at:


0.21 R3 (Clay Guida)

0.32 R3 (Thiago Tavares)

1:32 R3 (Diego Brandao)


From Guida to Tavares to Brandao, they were all comfortably winning going into the final frame, yet each found their own silly way of stepping on a rake.

I just don't see Moicano falling into the same trap. I think he picks and pokes at Ortega for 15 minutes and if he gets a knock out or submission, that's just cake with his ice cream.

Unlike those I've mentioned, Moicano is not an old man in the twilight of his mixed martial arts career. What's more he is much more diverse in all aspects of the arts compared to the aforementioned opponents of Ortega. He has good striking, good wrestling, great takedown defense and is a Brazilian jujitsu black belt himself. I also think he'll have a noticeable speed advantage.

 

[Sham5916910]

Look, I haven't been too impressed by what I have seen in cattar, either...

But there are certain times/ certain fighters i wouldn't even remotely consider someone -400 etc. This is one of them.

Fili looked excellent against dias, but dias also fought a poor gameplan. And he's laid some eggs in the past.

Laid an egg against whom? Pepey maybe but pepey is one of the few guys that can pull shit like that off. I wouldnt say dias fought a poor gameplan either he does what he always does tried to wrestle and lnp but it didnt work cos fili was using excellent angles, defending/reversing td attempts and getting up quickly when taken down (except r3 of course)

 

[Slohog]

Not sure Jones has an addiction to anything special, but he does seem like a adrenaline junkie.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Kailin Curran bout to get a win, she's so much better now than she was when she debuted, massive improvements all round. She should be favoured here, I think she's gonna box Albu up, Curran got a nice hand game, nice jab, good footwork, keep this USADA victim on the outside and pop her.

Albu hasn't competed in two years, she's inexperienced and she's going to have ring rust. Curran is being underestimated people are overlooking the improvements.

 

[onC]

Kailin Curran bout to get a win, she's so much better now than she was when she debuted, massive improvements all round. She should be favoured here, I think she's gonna box Albu up, Curran got a nice hand game, nice jab, good footwork, keep this USADA victim on the outside and pop her.

Albu hasn't competed in two years, she's inexperienced and she's going to have ring rust. Curran is being underestimated people are overlooking the improvements.

I definitely wouldnt be as sure about Curran winning as you are, but love her at +140. I'd have her as a favourite if her fight IQ wasnt on the level of a potato.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Eric Shelton gonna get the win, Brooks is a good wrestler but he's outmatched in almost every aspect here. Brooks has no physical advantages in this fight, Shelton has the reach, height, weight. Brooks may be the better wrestler but that advantage could be negated because of Shelton's size advantage. Striking is all Shelton, Brooks has no composure, fights recklessly, lacks solid fundamentals.

Besides wrestling there is nothing Brooks seems to be great at. Shelton is solid everywhere, just the much more well rounded fighter. Shelton also has a big edge in experience, competing on TUF, fighting Elliot in the semi's and Pantoja in his UFC debut. Compare that to Brooks fighting jobbers in Japan and fighting at 115.

Shelton is just bigger and better, Brooks is a lot of hype.

 

[vkram]

I will go back and check the Mendes fight, also will look at his conditioning in the third rounds. But having just watched them before writing the BD it seemed to me as if he lost a step in the final rounds. Maybe it was because the last flight I watched was against Caraway LOL I will get back to you though.

I don't really remember the third rounds that well but I am pretty sure that he won both of them so he couldn't have been that gassed. Do you reckon Barao will have conditioning issues going back down (to 140lbs but still).

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

I definitely wouldnt be as sure about Curran winning as you are, but love her at +140. I'd have her as a favourite if her fight IQ wasnt on the level of a potato.

This is MMA fighter vs Bodybuilder. Seriously Albu spends more time in the weight room than the mat, I came to that conclusion by looking at her instagram, she loves the squat rack and I doubt her cardio is on point.

 

[lawmills2006]

Like this treble

Barao + Lamas + Manuwa @ +550

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Like this treble

Barao + Lamas + Manuwa @ +550

That looks like a donation

 

[lawmills2006]

That looks like a donation

I'm sorry, but who are you?

 

[wack3d]

Kailin Curran bout to get a win, she's so much better now than she was when she debuted, massive improvements all round. She should be favoured here, I think she's gonna box Albu up, Curran got a nice hand game, nice jab, good footwork, keep this USADA victim on the outside and pop her.

Albu hasn't competed in two years, she's inexperienced and she's going to have ring rust. Curran is being underestimated people are overlooking the improvements.

major improvements? she is coming off two loses and she is only in the ufc becourse she is hot

 

[wack3d]

This is MMA fighter vs Bodybuilder. Seriously Albu spends more time in the weight room than the mat, I came to that conclusion by looking at her instagram, she loves the squat rack and I doubt her cardio is on point.

she is also a black belt in karate and to me she looks pretty much the same as she did in her debut where she showed good cardio

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

major improvements? she is coming off two loses and she is only in the ufc becourse she is hot

Yeah major improvements, watch the PVZ fight then watch the Moyle fight. Everything in her game has improved massively, conditioning included. It's expected though cause she is young and improving. What Albu been doing, chilling at the squat rack and the library

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Yeah major improvements, watch the PVZ fight then watch the Moyle fight. Everything in her game has improved massively, conditioning included. It's expected though cause she is young and improving. What Albu been doing, chilling at the squat rack and the library

You have that confirmation bias where you favor a fighter and you will just diss the opposite fighter even when it makes no sense. You did something similar with Bermudez last event, saying he was owned by 'some Korean fighter', which is doing a massive disservice to the Korean Zombie, he's not just random bum they pulled off the streets. The Zombie is legit, even though he was coming off a long lay off.

Here you mention one of the pro's for Curran is that she's still so young and constantly improving, without mentioning Albu is only 1 year older than her. There's no reason to think she isn't improving either, even though she has kept busy with weights and study. Tecia Torres is built like a brick too and was studying before her fight, and she still goes out there and performs. I'm not arguing a case for either fighter, but it's dangerous to have that much tunnel vision when you cap a fight.

 

[original doom]

This is a pretty interesting topic. I don't think JJ is an addict of any kind I think he just likes partying hard and that is an important distinction to make.

The second question is: to what degree does his partying impact his performance. Of course this will be contentious but I actually think there is strong reason to believe he can party hard and still perform well in the octagon.

He has partied his whole career and still remains undefeated so there is that. Secondly. there is plenty of stories of other pro athletes (especially NFL) where guys party hard for much of their career and still perform well. The problem comes when people start neglecting their training.

Leaving all moral discussions aside I don't see why someone like JJ can't party hard on weekends train hard during the week and still perform great in the octagon.

Say for example he gets wasted every other weekend. He maybe drinks 5-10 beers, does a flew lines of coke and smokes a few joints. This really isn't that big of a deal performance wise.

He can't get away with this at 40 but he def can now at 30. Youth is wasted on the young...

Ben Cousins, Australian football player, party animal.

Not a happy ending but he was drug addict during some of his best years.

It can be done but i suspect every athlete who does it is a machine follwing a major drug and alcohol binge. Cousins was out training the next day.

 

[wack3d]

Yeah major improvements, watch the PVZ fight then watch the Moyle fight. Everything in her game has improved massively, conditioning included. It's expected though cause she is young and improving. What Albu been doing, chilling at the squat rack and the library

well thats just sad then if she made major improvements and still cant even beat Moyle..

skipping this fight seems like the smart play too many unknowns about Albu and Curran is the last fighter i would ever trust with my money

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

You have that confirmation bias where you favor a fighter and you will just diss the opposite fighter even when it makes no sense. You did something similar with Bermudez last event, saying he was owned by 'some Korean fighter', which is doing a massive disservice to the Korean Zombie, he's not just random bum they pulled off the streets, even though he had a long lay off.

Here you mention one of the pro's for Curran is that she's still so young and constantly improving, without mentioning Albu is only 1 year older than her. There's no reason to think she isn't improving either, even though she has kept busy with weights and study. Tecia Torres is built like a brick too and was studying before her fight, and she still goes out there and performs. I'm not arguing a case for either fighter, but it's dangerous to have that much tunnel vision when you cap a fight.

Not biased, I try to be 100% objective. I don't really know what you are saying but I'm just looking at the facts. Girl has been at the library and the squat rack, a two year layoff is not a positive, especially for a young developing fighter like Albu.

I just like fading certain fighters coming off long layoffs, last week was Lyman Good this week it's Albu. Curran going to light her up with that Parillo boxing.

 

[Xuh]

This is MMA fighter vs Bodybuilder. Seriously Albu spends more time in the weight room than the mat, I came to that conclusion by looking at her instagram, she loves the squat rack and I doubt her cardio is on point.

that's pretty much how I see it, I bet quite a lot on Curran already, obviously I'm gonna hate myself for betting big on someone with the IQ of a rock if she loses but at least she's a fighter (even if a bad one) not a fitness model, Albu spent the last 2-3 years studying and getting lip fillers (I mean ffs what fighter does that) while Curran was racking up cage time at least. So, MMA fighter at plus odds vs someone who is barely a fighter, seems an easy bet to me.

I didn't think Albu was impressive in her 1 fight, she looks like she punches quite hard but her stance was lolworthy, she had her hands at her waist, shuffling around with her chin pointed straight up at the ceiling. It's probably not a coincidence that she's been signed what, 5 years? and only fought once, against a specially signed local one-and-done can, and the can was winning that one until she gassed out. My inference being: they couldn't find many opponents bad enough to lose to Albu (who was one of their first wimmin signings IIRC, for 'marketability' no doubt and they wanted to try and push but realised they couldn't do much with her. That's just my interpretation of her UFC career & lack of fights).

As for Curran, I think I said something like 'worst fighter in the division' ahead of her last fight but I forgot Albu existed. But as for her actual performances: vs PVZ was a competitive fight before she gassed; vs Chambers she was beating the hell out of her for 3 rounds on the feet before taking her down and being instantly submitted with about a minute to go; vs Kagan, a win against someone who isn't good at all but trains at Jackson/Wink and has an alright-ish allround skillset; vs Moyle, she lost but I thought she'd get destroyed, I thought she looked alright, relatively speaking. And I'd pick all of those fighters to beat Albu comfortably. I don't feel the over is that safe here either, we're talking about a bimbo who only went to dec once in 5 UFC fights vs a bodybuilder with 1 fight in 4 years (& who never went the distance). I dunno if I'll bet ITD but might put something on Curran SUB because of the odds & she has better training camp/coaches etc - it's just the kind of thing I can 'feel' happening.

as for why she's still in the UFC, apart from being a pretty face (the chest tat kills it dead for me personally, that thing is absolutely awful) apparently her parents are friends with Dana or something like that.

If (ahem, when) she wins I was thinking about sticking 1-2 u on all the underdogs in the last 6-7 fights, but whittled that down to just DC, Evinger and Maia, and really just Maia SUB coz I think the other two will lose (but will bet them for the value anyway)