UFC 215 - Johnson vs. Borg - Alberta, Canada

[Discjockeyshtud]

Also it's crazy that everybody here seems to like Latifi in this match but money keeps going to Pedro. Anybody have an explanation for this? Does he have a bunch of degenerate Aussie fanboys or something? After all, Australians do love to gamble:

"Gambling is an activity undertaken by many Australians. Over 80% of Australian adults engage in gambling of some kind, which is the highest rate of gambling in the world.[1] This number includes some 4% of the adult population who play the pokies once a week, accounting for some 62% of locals’ annual gambling spend.[2]

Total employment in the gambling industry in Australia (thousands of people) since 1984
Gambling is a significant public health issue, with around 80,000 to 160,000 (or 0.5 - 1.0%) of Australian adults experiencing significant problems from gambling and a further 250,000 to 350,000 (or 1.4 - 2.1% of adults) experiencing moderate risks that may make them vulnerable to problem gambling.[3] The social cost of problem gambling to the community is estimated to be at least $4.7 billion each year."

Guilty as charged, we celebrate getting our asses handed to us by the Ottomans in WW1 by getting hammered and gambling with the Kiwis on ANZAC day every yr.

I was surprised when I saw Pedro as Fav, I really wanted dog odds on him

 

[EzFlyer]

man people starting to see what i'm seeing, and i was too slow

nunes nsc now at -162 >< >< >p>

and shevchenko dec down to freakin +229 on 5d

edit: just hit shevchenko dec +335 on bookmaker before that drops, too

 

[Soccer Steve]

fight pass:

nunes-shevchenko
shevchenko looks great, as always. 133.5...
nunes lookin pretty fit. as good as expected.
nunes 2" taller. she's the bigger girl for sure, but we knew this.

Thanks for posting these...always look for it from you.

Anyways, chiming in that I disagree. Nunes looked not that great imo. Soft is a word thrown around in here so I'll go with that. And whenever she spoke in the Embedded's she sounded nasally - like how people sound when they're just coming off a cold.

Sheva and RDA looked the best to me of the weigh-ins.

 

[EzFlyer]

Thanks for posting these...always look for it from you.

Anyways, chiming in that I disagree. Nunes looked not that great imo. Soft is a word thrown around in here so I'll go with that. And whenever she spoke in the Embedded's she sounded nasally - like how people sound when they're just coming off a cold.

Sheva and RDA looked the best to me of the weigh-ins.

not saying you're wrong, maybe you're spot-on -- can you think of another one where she looked better? (will check the prior weighins if you can think of one) -- i was just saying i think this is what i expected her to look like, i guess?

 

[Monster Meat]

Just want to preface this by saying #prayforhouston #prayforflorida
I will be donating to the Redcross some of the profits I've made from MLB this season to help victims of the hurricane.

Ok my dudes, It's already fucking September and things are kicking into overdrive. Have a steady supply of Alpha Brain supplements to keep the mind ultra $harp whilst handicapping in the lab. No distractions like ex-gf getting in my business. I grind out the bookies for every last drop of value, but I never drink the juice. The bookies are enticing mugs with bonus offers now that the NFL is in full swing. This is your chance to capitalize and we're looking to win more than just George Washington's.

Felt Borg had value and so my bet will be cancelled. Dangit! I have a huuuuuuuge lean on Nunes/Shevchenko & Stephens/Melendez. At the moment, I do not plan on offering a free play. On the other hand, if there's enough support for BG1 and people want yours truly to give ya'll a monster value pick, drop a like. Hit 20 likes and I'll be forced to give the people what they want. I just want to make this perfectly clear: I am not bumhunting for likes. If you appreciate my analysis and my contributions, let the kidd know by showing your support. Considered "the Godfather of betting" by many who have seniority here.

These are my last 4 bets posted on here. 4-4, as they say "the numbers don't lie"
I don't sugarcoat or pad any of my bets like a lot of dolts will do. If you're not 100% transparent with your bets then go eat dirt. No time for BS or buffoonery.

Santiago Ponzinibbio +175
Alex Oliveira +162
J.Jones/T.Woodley Parlay +120
Floyd Mayweather -900 & -425

Before I end this write-up, I want to ask whomever it is sending me harassing messages to stop it. I won't be everyone's cup of tea. However, this perp has been doing this to me for years and I can't pinpoint who it is. I believe it is a vindictive Trump troll as I have made it crystal clear he is the devil reincarnate. I do suffer from panic attacks and depression due to the issues in my life. I ask you to stop it and cut it out.

- Barry

I love this guys posts

 

[Card]

 

[rev0lver]

I really like Gilbert Melendez here. Seems to be in great condition and stylistically this is a good match up for him so long as he doesn't stand directly in front of Jeremy and bang it out like he did with Diego. I believe he's bluffing with the talk of standing toe-to-toe and just throwing hands for the fans amusement. He's on a 3-fight losing streak and needs a victory. Moreover, if he wanted to just entertain fans and pick up a paycheck classified sell the rest of his contract – he wouldn't have dropped to 145 and struggled with what he eats. I mean, he's not going to kill themselves to make 145 pounds at 35 years of old and put himself in line to get slept for a fourth consecutive loss.

This weekend I believe we see a bit of the old El Niño here, which is high pressure and excellent boxing. At his best Gilbert is one of the most dominant wrestle–boxers in the sport, right up there with Frankie Edgar, and he is in position to showcase those talents this weekend. That's because stylistically Jeremy Stephens is the perfect apparel to break this horrid losing streak.

Also of note is the lingering myth of Stephens and his heavy hands. That is to say, while he packs power if it connects, he misses a lot. Accordingly, he exhibits very rudimentary boxing from a technical perspective after the first few minutes of the fight. Particularly, this is because when he punches he winds up and swings from the bleachers rather than picking his shots. Using a baseball analogy: instead of hitting his man and landing singles, doubles and the occasional triple, he is consistently searching for the homerun. And as any good baseball coach will tell you, "If you try and force the HR it's going to remain elusive and you're gonna strike out. You have to let the pitch come to you (take what your opponent gives you) and it will come to you organically"

What's more, Jeremy's once vaunted knock out power has faded almost completely as he has went the distance in his 8 straight and 9 of his last 10.

His tendency to plant his feet and sit down on his punches gives Gilbert the opportunity to hit that blast double leg takedown.

Stephens is just 1-3 in his last four and 2-4 in his last six with victories over the aforementioned Bermudez and a vastly undersized 145 pound Barao who is a shadow of its former self. Worse still, Jeremy barely squeaked by with a split decision.

While Gil has dropped 3 in a row and 4 of 5, the losses look worse on paper than they are when placed in proper context. For instance, the majority of fans and media believed he defeated Benson Henderson to win the title, as well as Eddie Alvarez in his penultimate UFC outing. Pettis — who was on fire at the time — caught him in a sneaky guillotine after Gil looked in total control of that fight. Then he got clobbered by Edson Barboza who is fighting like a fucking gorilla right now. I mean, Barboza might be the hottest fighter in the UFC at this point, and is most certainly multiple levels above where Jeremy Stephens ever was.

At any rate, I believe Gilbert should be around -160 here I already put a pretty good bet on him after seeing him at the weigh-in's — which was all I was waiting for. Best of luck to those either way. This is just my humble opinion.

I disagree with this actually. Putting USADA aside even, Gil's been losing to fighters falling out of the top rankings. Other than Barboza I guess, but to call him the "hottest fighter in the UFC" is a big stretch when he was getting dominated by Dariush last fight before the knee. And yeah Pettis was a title fight but this is the same Pettis who got absolutely mauled by RDA 3 months later. Stephens is no world-beater but he maintains a consistently solid level throughout his fights. Gil may be on the decline.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I look at this a whole different way. How many veteran 35 year old fighters who are 45 in fight years do well by draining themselves to drop a weight class late in their careers? Stephens almost beat Frankie Edgar in my opinion two fights ago and Gilbert has been inactive for a long time, possibly off the sauce now as well after his forced hiatus. He's not easily going to take Jeremy Stephens down and I am not sure he will win clearly on the feet if Stephens takes him seriously. I think you have to take a greater leap of faith that Gilbert will regain any semblance of his old form and look good at 145 pounds, while Stephens just has to be as good as any one of his most recent performances to win a decision here. Hell, he may even knock down a weight drained Gilbert.

Yes Gilbert is 35 years old but he hasn't taken very much damage at all throughout his career and has never been knocked out. The closest to came was with Diego Sanchez. I actually believe that's the only time he's been knocked down. I may be wrong. The most abuse he took for sure was against Edson Barboza. Nevertheless, he was always a small 155 pound fighter with love handles LOL in fact, he used to fight at 143 pounds in Japan during his Shooto days, but moved to 155 in the states because there wasn't a featherweight division of the time in any major promotion. As far as draining himself to make the weight goes, he was the first fighter to weigh in (IIRC) and He looked excellent to me. He wasn't ematiated and all sunken in.

I never thought like Gilbert was on the sauce myself. If anyone was taking something extra I would have thought it would have been Stephens actually as he had a significant body change.

As far as the success that he will have dropping a division at 35 years old, most fighters don't do well as you say. Especially dropping down when reaching that point in their career, and more so at lower weight classes, I agree. However, I believe that he will have some success, I don't believe he's going to win any titles, but he will have limited success based upon who he's fighting. It will be on a fight my fight basis and his success will come just as Urijah Faber was able to make the move down to 135. pounds 33 years old and Kawajiri also had some success dropping from 155 to 145 pounds late in his career, and it was a much more drastic cut them what Gilbert is making.

It's not like I'm putting multiple units on this,fight. I just think that it's a good fight for Gilbert and I see him pressuring Jeremy and picking up the win with clean and effective strikes mixed up with TDs. It most certainly could go either way though. I've just never been to high on Jeremy and he has very few victories over established fighters. Even an old ass Yves Edwards was able to sleep him LOL

BOL JG

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I disagree with this actually. Putting USADA aside even, Gil's been losing to fighters falling out of the top rankings. Other than Barboza I guess, but to call him the "hottest fighter in the UFC" is a big stretch when he was getting dominated by Dariush last fight before the knee. And yeah Pettis was a title fight but this is the same Pettis who got absolutely mauled by RDA 3 months later. Stephens is no world-beater but he maintains a consistently solid level throughout his fights. Gil may be on the decline.

We. Shall. See.

BOL though.

 

[iGnP]

@Oblivian opinion on RDA/Magny, please?

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Tucker down to -235 after weigh ins as i predicted lol its not like the height difference wasnt expected. Rda down slightly too. Magny and glenn may be tall but they cant fight at range for shit especially glenn who likes to dirty box

grr i tailed you b4 i red your reply to wait. people love a height diff. add some more i guess

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Tucker cejudo

what put you off martins? i got option to trade out on him now after movment. and im big on a lot of favs n cant all hit

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

I love this guys posts

u love mma goodfella? my best guess

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Someone else posted it ITT that earlier but I think Ketlen Vieira is a great play at her current underdog line +200 ~ against Sarah McMann. Watching all of McMann's past fights, I forgot how much she absolutely loathes contact from striking, and tries to avoid it like the fucking plague. She shoots from the way outside to avoid getting hit, often coming up short. She is so damn strong though that all she has to do is get her hands on any part of her opponents body and she can find a way to bring them to the mat. Whether it be an ankle pick or a single leg or a blast double or a clinch body lock TD, she can do it all.

However, Vieira looked very much improved in her fight against Ashley Evans-Smith, and with her high level judo background she has excellent takedown defense. But where she made the most progress was her striking. She is a very thick 135 pound female and her striking improved drastically from her debut in the octagon to her second appearance. She was stringing her combinations together much better and sitting down on her punches, which had some real steam on them. Enough to make Sara take panic shots.

What's more, there is a drastic 11 year age gap with the Vieira at 26 years old and McMann 37 almost 38. We're going to keep seeing improvement from the Brazilian as well while Sara has likely plateaued.

If Vieira can stuff a few of McMann's early take downs, she might be able to get in the wrestler's head, and make her wilt. From there I can see her getting a stoppage. There's also the chance that Sara gets the takedown and gets the submission, so you might look at the under for a flier at +230 or so.

I love Vieira KO at +1050 too.

 

[ill800]

Someone else posted it ITT that earlier but I think Ketlen Vieira is a great play at her current underdog line +200 ~ against Sarah McMann. Watching all of McMann's past fights, I forgot how much she absolutely loathes contact from striking, and tries to avoid it like the fucking plague. She shoots from the way outside to avoid getting hit, often coming up short. She is so damn strong though that all she has to do is get her hands on any part of her opponents body and she can find a way to bring them to the mat. Whether it be an ankle pick or a single leg or a blast double or a clinch body lock TD, she can do it all.

However, Vieira looked very much improved in her fight against Ashley Evans-Smith, and with her high level judo background she has excellent takedown defense. But where she made the most progress was her striking. She is a very thick 135 pound female and her striking improved drastically from her debut in the octagon to her second appearance. She was stringing her combinations together much better and sitting down on her punches, which had some real steam on them. Enough to make Sara take panic shots.

What's more, there is a drastic 11 year age gap with the Vieira at 26 years old and McMann 37 almost 38. We're going to keep seeing improvement from the Brazilian as well while Sara has likely plateaued.

If Vieira can stuff a few of McMann's early take downs, she might be able to get in the wrestler's head, and make her wilt. From there I can see her getting a stoppage. There's also the chance that Sara gets the takedown and gets the submission, so you might look at the under for a flier at +230 or so.

I love Vieira KO at +1050 too.

When I first capped the fight I went off memory. I forgot I didn't watch her last fight against aes. She did look much improved.

I think the ko line is a great hedge for someone like me who played mcmann heavy. I think the odds are better that vieira finishes mcmann vs winning a dec over her.

Aes only looked for a td one time in their fight and it was a poor attempt. I can't imagine vieira consistently stuffing mcmanns takedowns. But If she does I see the tko being a far more likely outcome than a decision

Mcmann doesn't like to get hit but she's tough. She took a lot of elbows from davis. Said she couldn't feel half her face and still went out there and subbed a very competent jiu jitsu player in Davis.

Also took the under and mcmann sub prop.

 

[null]

I love that too, GF, Vieira TKO/KO prop is +1090 on 5D, fyi.

 

[Orion]

Interesting to see so many on Latifi

 

[Caicara]

Glenn KO +450
Glenn DEC +550
Latifi DEC +650

These lines are off.

 

[onC]

Glenn KO +450
Glenn DEC +550
Latifi DEC +650

These lines are off.

Funny you think those first two are "off", but dont mention his ML?

 

[Card]