UFN 118 - Cerrone vs Till - Poland

[SBJJ]

i even went back and watched older Kattar fights. And while he's better than the majority in here thought he was. I was surprised at how he seemed to hurt Fili more than some of his lower tier opponents.

I'm not saying Fili has a weak beard. But I will say I don't think he reacts well to getting hit with shots

In closing, no way in hell I lay juice on Fili. It's dog or pass IMO. You have Clark & Cowboy sitting at better prices

 

[Joseph Budden]

I just watched it. Kattar would rip him any time Fili would get inside then back out. He was cracking Fili at the same distance that Lobov was cracking Swanson. Lobov can close distance quickly with his speed. And he's tough enough to eat a few from Fili to return fire with a shot that will at least look a lot harder than the shots Fili is landing.

Also the Swanson fight was super high paced and Lobov hung tough and increased his output from previous fights.

Imo this could be a case of Lobov just landing the harder shots and inflicting more damage

Idk dude Kattar and Lobov look like polar opposites standing. Lobov will not be able to do anything on the outside with reach disadvantage and just a lack of game out that range anyway. Kattar did well in the pocket when it was there but that was all behind a jab and 1-2 Kattar worked behind all fight. Not impressed with Lobov's speed either and don't think he'll have much success using speed in anyway.

 

[SBJJ]

His speed is in his quick movement

It's just funny. During the PBP in here during Fili-Kattar it was like unanimous that Fili looked like a bum. People were saying he had the worst boxing they ever saw.

Contrast that to the PBP of Swanson-Lobov and dudes were super impressed with Lobov and his Boxing.

I really think Lobov has a boxing style that could really give Fili trouble.

Now watch Fili take him down immediately and grapplefuck him

 

[SBJJ]

It is also possible that Kattar was a tough match up for Fili and Swanson was made to have trouble with a fighter like Lobob(at least early)

Also, I have thought for awhile Swanson is overrated

 

[Joseph Budden]

Swanson engaged in the pocket the entire fight. Fili will look to kick from the outside and move out when Artem moves in. Just a completely different fight. Fili's straight up boxing is maybe worse, but it doesn't need to be better to stylistically win this fight.

 

[SBJJ]

I'm not sure Fili will win by throwing weak kicks the entire fight. Lobov closes distance well. And Fili really doesn't move side to side well. He tends to move straight lines

If he lands 5 or 6 patter kicks but gets his head rocked back at the same time from a single shot. I'm not sure judges will reward Fili

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Stasiak NSC +130. He's never been finished, and Kelleher has been subbed 5 times

 

[turbozed]

It is also possible that Kattar was a tough match up for Fili and Swanson was made to have trouble with a fighter like Lobob(at least early)

Also, I have thought for awhile Swanson is overrated

I agree with all of this. There's a lot of factors at play here. Recency bias and expectations. Kattar is a much better boxer than people realize, so people are being overly harsh on Fili for losing the striking battle with him. People were overrating Swanson because of the Doo Ho Choi win so Lobov hanging with Swanson for a bit is getting a bit more credit than is due. Both are the most recent memories of each fighter, so these perceptions get even more weight. I don't have a bet here but this is my impression.

 

[SBJJ]

I agree with all of this. There's a lot of factors at play here. Recency bias and expectations. Kattar is a much better boxer than people realize, so people are being overly harsh on Fili for losing the striking battle with him. People were overrating Swanson because of the Doo Ho Choi win so Lobov hanging with Swanson for a bit is getting a bit more credit than is due. Both are the most recent memories of each fighter, so these perceptions get even more weight. I don't have a bet here but this is my impression.

True. But looking back. If u take the Dias performance away, Fili doesn't look super strong. BUT, u take the Swanson fight away, maybe Lobov still sucks.

Too many questions IMO to bet the juice here. I'm probably passing

 

[SBJJ]

Stasiak NSC +130. He's never been finished, and Kelleher has been subbed 5 times

Am I crazy liking Stasiak here? Seems many are against him online.

 

[turbozed]

Stasiak NSC +130. He's never been finished, and Kelleher has been subbed 5 times

I like it. Stasiak did use to leave his neck exposed and get in bad positions, but he was pretty composed and defended well the times he did.

I also don't see Clark finishing Blachowicz but I think if Blachowicz wins it'll be in the 1st and that play might have more value.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Calvin Kattar won a split decision against this guy 16 months before dominating Fili

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kenny-Foster-38740

Fili was a -350 fave and Kattar still hasn't fought anybody else in UFC. IMO Kattar is probably alright and a little better than Lobov, but it's a distinct possibility that fight was Fili being bad moreso than Kattar being good.

 

[SBJJ]

Calvin Kattar won a split decision against this guy 16 months before dominating Fili

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kenny-Foster-38740

Fili was a -350 fave and Kattar still hasn't fought anybody else in UFC. IMO Kattar is probably alright and a little better than Lobov, but it's a distinct possibility that fight was Fili being bad moreso than Kattar being good.

That's the thing. I rewarded some Kattar footage. It's hard to see why he beat up Fili so bad

Maybe bad matchup or maybe Fili was overrated from the Dias fight

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Am I crazy liking Stasiak here? Seems many are against him online.

Nope. I lean towards him

I like it. Stasiak did use to leave his neck exposed and get in bad positions, but he was pretty composed and defended well the times he did.

I also don't see Clark finishing Blachowicz but I think if Blachowicz wins it'll be in the 1st and that play might have more value.

If he can avoid Munoz's guillotine he *should* be able to avoid Kelleher's also.

Mostly agreed on your second part.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

That's the thing. I rewarded some Kattar footage. It's hard to see why he beat up Fili so bad

Maybe bad matchup or maybe Fili was overrated from the Dias fight

I think Kattar (17-2) is just a lot better than people thought he was. He was the much sharper boxer, his timing was much better than Fili's and he trains under Mark Dellagrotte. I think Kattar will find good success in the UFC, no shame in losing to him. Artem and Fili are very different strikers, yes they both like to throw hands but their styles are not similar. Kattar also had a decent reach, Artem does not.

 

[SBJJ]

I think Kattar (17-2) is just a lot better than people thought he was. He was the much sharper boxer, his timing was much better than Fili's and he trains under Mark Dellagrotte. I think Kattar will find good success in the UFC, no shame in losing to him. Artem and Fili are very different strikers, yes they both like to throw hands but their styles are not similar. Kattar also had a decent reach, Artem does not.

That's the thing. Filis timing could very well suck! He only really looked good against Oxycotin Dias. He may very well loose to decent boxers

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Kelleher impossible to get a solid read on, limited fight footage and his two UFC fights were very strange. I'm staying away from betting his fights till I know more about his game, I wanna see him go 3 rounds.

But from what I've seen Kelleher seems like a pressure fighter with a good choke game but also has defensive flaws, both in his striking and grappling. Kelleher vs Stasiak seems like one of the tougher fights to predict and it's because of the unknowns of Kelleher.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

That's the thing. Filis timing could very well suck! He only really looked good against Oxycotin Dias. He may very well loose to decent boxers

Yeah I think Artem is capable of winning the striking exchanges but he needs to pressure like he did vs Ishihara and Swanson, he can't sit back and look for counters. Fili would be smart to use his footwork and avoid the pocket, stay at range and kick Artem, try to mix in takedowns too

 

[SBJJ]

One thing I have noticed is kelleher seems quite slow

 

[conmemay]

One thing I have noticed is kelleher seems quite slow

Kelleher is alot faster than Stasiak imo and seems to be much more athletic. Hes probbly the better striker too. Wrestling cardio is probably a wash but Stasiak is pretty good in scrambles. It might end up being close fight like the lines suggested but this fight being in Poland is gonna have some home town judging favorite. I would favor Kelleher if fight is somewhere else.