UFN 118 - Cerrone vs Till - Poland

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No way IMO is Kelleher much faster than Stasiak, if at all
 
What are people seeing in Piechota? I think Jonathan Wilson is gonna outright win this fight. I've always been a euro noob tho so I can't say with confidence, unless I'm missing something here but from the tape I saw, he looks like he needs a lot of work to get his game to wrap around his BJJ acumen.

Like I mentioned before, I think Wilson has good head positioning in the clinch where Piechode will have trouble dragging it to the floor.

At range he won't be better than Wilson so going with what my eyes see, it looks like Wilson should catch him coming in and maybe knock him out. I'd line him up with a straight left or left head kick.

The other dogs on the card like Alvey seem to be a toss up, but with Wilson I see him winning this as long he stays sharp and move his feet.
 
Here's video of Alvey weighing in



He was making a huge deal about how tough the weight cut was going to be, and I interpreted this to mean that he kinda deep down knew he wasn't going to make it. Ends up being 4 lbs over, which is probably as much as he could cut without it being too dangerous. Doesn't look too bad.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
What are people seeing in Piechota? I think Jonathan Wilson is gonna outright win this fight. I've always been a euro noob tho so I can't say with confidence, unless I'm missing something here but from the tape I saw, he looks like he needs a lot of work to get his game to wrap around his BJJ acumen.

Like I mentioned before, I think Wilson has good head positioning in the clinch where Piechode will have trouble dragging it to the floor.

At range he won't be better than Wilson so going with what my eyes see, it looks like Wilson should catch him coming in and maybe knock him out. I'd line him up with a straight left or left head kick.

The other dogs on the card like Alvey seem to be a toss up, but with Wilson I see him winning this as long he stays sharp and move his feet.
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I don't see how Wilson wins aside from landing a huge left in the 1st. But Wilson really loads up and I don't think Piechota is the type to stand in front of Wilson like Cutelaba or Frank Waisten Jr. On the ground Piechota appears to have what it takes to absolutely tool Wilson. We've only seen Wilson on the ground in 1 round of 1 fight, where he was able to take Frank Waisten down but then got swept and then mounted. If you see what Piechota did to Craig White, who is a competent grappler, you'll see how slick he is. Wilson dropping another 20 lbs to MW and now saying he can't get adjusted to the time zone. All signs point to Wilson getting outpointed on the feet and/or subbed once it hits the mat.

But, who knows, Wilson might be faster and a world beater at 185. It's just that the only good attributes he's demonstrated in any of his fights is (1) strong left straight (2) strong chin.
 
Sam Alvey can put on a happy face but he looked gaunt, face was all sunken in, weak voice. Not going to see a prime Sam Alvey come fight night.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
What are people seeing in Piechota? I think Jonathan Wilson is gonna outright win this fight. I've always been a euro noob tho so I can't say with confidence, unless I'm missing something here but from the tape I saw, he looks like he needs a lot of work to get his game to wrap around his BJJ acumen.

Like I mentioned before, I think Wilson has good head positioning in the clinch where Piechode will have trouble dragging it to the floor.

At range he won't be better than Wilson so going with what my eyes see, it looks like Wilson should catch him coming in and maybe knock him out. I'd line him up with a straight left or left head kick.

The other dogs on the card like Alvey seem to be a toss up, but with Wilson I see him winning this as long he stays sharp and move his feet.
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Was kinda wondering this.. Wilson tends to gas so fucking bad though, but he really should be better in many areas here, pick em at worst
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Sam Alvey can put on a happy face but he looked gaunt, face was all sunken in, weak voice. Not going to see a prime Sam Alvey come fight night.
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he could be considerably bigger and stronger, possibly 15 pounds. i just hedged as my bet was on a 185 pound alvey, not 189
 
I think you guys are underestimating Nasrat against Held, I think he has a good shot at winning this one. I will be on two dogs, Till and Nasrat
 
I have a feeling that tills over confidence will come back to bite him in this fight. Of course it’s good to think you are the best and be confident in your abilities but based on the level of competition he has faced should he be coming out and saying how he’s going to dominate the standup against Cerrone and easily knock him out? Will he be showboating during the fight like he did against bojan? It just seems like with this over confidence he might be a little too loose and he is not respecting how dangerous cowboy is. I also noticed how he had a hard time putting guys away after dropping them and really starts fading after the first round. I’m interested to see how Cerrone comes out. Will he start slow or come out aggressive knowing Till will sit back and try to force Cerrone to fight his game? Does he try to take him down right away? I see so many advantages for Cerrone in this fight and outside of him being careless in the first and getting caught with a left he gets stronger as the fight goes and Till fades and his chances at a finish greatly diminish after the first round.
 
If you are playing Cerrone and want a hedge then I think Till round 1 is a decent at +700. Cowboy is a slow starter and Till usually starts off very well but tends to tire later on.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
What are people seeing in Piechota? I think Jonathan Wilson is gonna outright win this fight. I've always been a euro noob tho so I can't say with confidence, unless I'm missing something here but from the tape I saw, he looks like he needs a lot of work to get his game to wrap around his BJJ acumen.

Like I mentioned before, I think Wilson has good head positioning in the clinch where Piechode will have trouble dragging it to the floor.

At range he won't be better than Wilson so going with what my eyes see, it looks like Wilson should catch him coming in and maybe knock him out. I'd line him up with a straight left or left head kick.

The other dogs on the card like Alvey seem to be a toss up, but with Wilson I see him winning this as long he stays sharp and move his feet.
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Very crafty sub game, good takedowns from the clinch, nice sense of range while striking and nice counter check left hook. His striking, albeit in two super short fights, looks like it has come along nicely from his earlier fights. I agree with you that pulling guard is not a good look at the higher levels, but he hits some nice sweeps against better grapplers than Wilson appears to be. If this goes to the mat at all, I think Wilson is in deep trouble. Initially I thought I would be on Piechota, but Wilson does have a lot of pop in that left hand and I am not real confident Piechota can get takedowns from anywhere but the clinch. Only play for me is .3u Piechota Sub +340.
 
vkram said:
If you are playing Cerrone and want a hedge then I think Till round 1 is a decent at +700. Cowboy is a slow starter and Till usually starts off very well but tends to tire later on.
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Combo Till ko/tko r1 is +1000 @ betfair
 
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