UFC 217 - Bisping vs GSP - NYC

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I really have never looked his website until few days ago. If i was not posting and reading this forum maybe i was going to take him very serious...
 
You guys know Fury is a scam right? Just google fury's fight pick scam and you will see.

Don't be jealous of his success bro, you can also buy his picks for only 100$ per week.
 
You got it twisted. I faded Brown against Belal because I know exactly what his weaknesses are. But he's not the one with 0 wins over legitimate competition. This is a Gall hype fade which only needs a somewhat competent foil. Even if Gall hype is somewhat real, that leaves it a coinflip.
What are his best wins though? Brian Camozzi? Erick Montaño? Are they that much better than Sage?

I understand what you're saying but I'm not convinced this is the best spot to fade him in.

I'd be pretty nervous going big on either of them but I'm small on Gall sub +200. Think at some point in the 15 minutes Gall gets him down and puts him in trouble.
 
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I am probably going to bet an irresponsible amount of money on Rose because this price is fucking ridiculous

JJ is undefeated but the women's division is so thin she hasn't had much real competition. Even sucky LeTourneau hung in there against her bc she is tall and long and landed enough strikes.

--Gadelha was clearly better than her when fresh but got robbed once and isn't built to win 5 round fights with ass cardio and no finishing.
--Andrade was an easy matchup bc short arms, meh IQ, horrible technique is the worst possible mold to beat a long, technical striker
--Karolina had no chance but still stunned her with her pillowfists in the 4th.

Rose is the toughest matchup she has faced for so many reasons

1) She has the length + striking ability to land
2) When she lands it's going to hurt, and if Joanna is hurt Rose is a serious threat to take her back and choke her out
3) Rose is still 25 and improving. Already has 5 dominant wins against UFC level competition: Waterson, Hill, Paige, Calderwood, Markos. Gets way too much hate for losing split decision to KK
4) Rose said that normally she weighs 119-120 before fight week, was 125 before Karate Hottie, was 126 last week. She's starting to physically enter her own.

Of course Joanna is built to win 5 round decisions, but she has only finished girls who are completely inept at striking (Penne + Esparza) and has shown weaknesses in her chin that Rose is custom built to exploit.

There's no reason why Rose can't be the future WMMA GOAT and about to go on a Nunes level tear through strawweight.

Did you say you just started watching MMA the last few months? Or am I thinking of someone else?
 
Yeah 5d down. Given the lack of prep I've done for this card, maybe that's a blessing...

(Kidding, and I assume they'll get it up and running soon).

Anyway, skimmed through some of the thread, will give a few thoughts on the fights. Since I can't log in to 5d I don't remember exactly what odds I got on the bets I've made though. Did have a good start to the weekend, 2-0 last night in Bellator with Bader -5.5 and Davis dec both cashing.

Bisping/GSP

I have a small bet on Bisping dec. I'm thinking about a bigger play on NOT GSP itd. I just don't know what to expect from GSP. What made him so great was his ability to use perfect timing to blend his striking and takedowns. Then using great top control and cardio to dominate rounds. Bisping, even at his age and with his mileage, has elite cardio too. And how can anyone be confident that GSP's amazing timing will be there after years away from the sport? It's a hard fight to cap, but I have to go with the guy who's been actually fighting over the last 3-4 years.

TJ/Cody

I slightly favor Cody, but it's VERY slightly. Odds a bit off imo. I like the fight to go the distance too. I have small action on TJ and TJ dec. It will be interesting to see if TJ can have any success with TD's when Dom had none against Cody. Cody's use of distance and ability to counter and more importantly not be baited into overcommitting vs Dom was nothing short of masterful. I don't know if that was him showing he's elevated his game to such an elite level, or if it was just him on his most brilliant night.

JJ/Rose

Rose may be my favorite WMMA fighter (she's made me more $ by far than any woman in the sport) but she is so outclassed here. JJ's moneyline is absurd, but at -275 I'm really big on JJ -5.5. It's hard for me to see Rose winning more than one round honestly. If Rose does pull the upset, most likely it's by sub. So I will hedge with that if anything.

Wonderboy/Mas

Wonderboy at his best is brilliant to watch, but I have a feeling we may see these two staring at each other a lot tonight. Both guys have shown stellar durability and toughness, so I like the o2.5 and fight goes distance here. I also have a small stab at Mas dec.

Might give some thoughts on undercard fights later. I think Hendricks may be done, but if he is, I (like a lot of others) think we'll see that early. If Johnny survives rd 1 I may look to live bet him (again, assuming 5d figures their shit out).

I'm excited for this card. Should be damn good.
 
I hope 5D comes back soon, I can't recall all the bets already made and I want to play some more props and event props.
 
I hope 5D comes back soon, I can't recall all the bets already made and I want to play some more props and event props.

Ha ha same here. That said, I only use 5d so for me it doesn't really matter. I can't add anymore bets until they are up and running anyway, so the fact I can't remember all the plays I've already made is sort of moot. But I know you use multiple sites so different story.
 
Why are some people acting like it's crazy to bet Rose here? Do you guys think JJ should be -2000? -5000?

it's getting tiresome. i love my rose bets. (mostly on rose NSC). the overconfidence is gonna bite people in the long run.
 
it's getting tiresome. i love my rose bets. (mostly on rose NSC). the overconfidence is gonna bite people in the long run.

Rose NSC is such an elite play. IMO should be -odds. I dont have 5D tho so i can only jam on +485 and hope for the best
 
5d back up.

Edit: Sort of. It just clocks when you try to navigate around the site.
 
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it's kicking me out / not loading tho.

Yeah not letting any navigation of the site. At least they seem to be making some progress...I guess...maybe LOL?
 
Let's all have a great night guys.

campfire-songs.jpg
 
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