UFC 219 - Cyborg vs Holm - Vegas

Status
Not open for further replies.
Hope my fellow degens are doing alright. Happy holidays and all that good shit. Don't like this card much for betting. I like Hooker, as mentioned, but other than that not much value that I see.

Holm's line feels high but hard to go against the man/robot/woman Cyborg.

Wanted to take Condit but too many ?'s for me to bet as a favorite. Sprinkled on Condit tko, tho.
 
I'm also curious what happened to the 'Condit has concussion issues and may retire' talks from a year ago. I find it unlikely that sort of stuff'd just fix itself on its own.


Unless your name is TJ Grant concussion doesn't normally keep you out for a year. Mostly it's a few days to a few months in bad cases.
 
Nope, I think it's an easy bet at +170.

Yes i have watched a lot of tape today, i think he is more technical. Sure D
I'm on him, but I prefer his NSC line because:



Yep. That's the fear.

I'm not too worried about diakiese's "giant power" that people think he has.. yes, he can pack a punch but he's not confident on the feet and hooker drips confidence.

I'm worried he'll steal rounds with takedowns, tho. I.e. knight vs hooker

Hooker still came back strong in rd 3 there, tho, which I like to see.

Unibet doesn't have NSC, that sucks.
 
Too steep for me .. I started toying with a couple -2xx plays this month.. carvalho, knight, and I forget the third (it won).. knight loss canceled out the other two.. reinforcing how I feel.. I need to be soooooo confident to lay -2xx (or steeper, hehe)

I know value is value, regardless of dog or favorite, it just isn't my style to lay that much $.. just isn't worth it. I prefer to only do it when it is a CRAZY strong lean. Like if I truly cap something 85%...90% and it's -250.. then sure.. but a small perceived edge I just can't be as confident .

In other words, my style and system is: bet more when my confidence that the value is there. And I am RARELY that confident in ANYTHING, so it's tough to lay -250. Like I always try to see all angles of the fight, which is another reason I play so many dogs. I can see their paths and bet them knowing they are not gonna win > 50%, etc

Lastly: I'm not scared to lose bets on dogs. I'm terrified any time I lay like -180, let alone more. It baffles my mind how much others lay the juice.. guess it's just a mindset. But if not for people doing it, my prices on those dogs wouldn't be as good, right? And I win 100+ units every year on my doggies so I'm kinda glad? Heh
True. Besides the major juice, is there any other reason you don’t like the -5.5 bet? Do you think Holly can win rounds?
 
I've said it once, I will say it again. Diakiese is going to outclass Hooker.


@iGnP @Oblivian do you guys have any strong leans for tonight??
 
I've said it once, I will say it again. Diakiese is going to outclass Hooker.


@iGnP @Oblivian do you guys have any strong leans for tonight??
Nothing strong but im on a lot of dogs: Magny (+dec), Carla (+dec), barboza, glenn, diakese (+dec)

no bet on smolka even though i was tempted. holm was intriguing earlier in the week and i was hoping cyborg would get hammered but as the odds stand, no bet for me
 
Diak wont be able to hold hooker down.

Think Hooker can snatch a guillotine too. The one he got on Eddiva was NASTY, only a one sub in the ufc but he's long and lanky and that guillotine didn't seem fluky to me. Obviously has a lot of power on the feet as well. Really like him as a dog here.
 
Think Hooker can snatch a guillotine too. The one he got on Eddiva was NASTY, only a one sub in the ufc but he's long and lanky and that guillotine didn't seem fluky to me. Obviously has a lot of power on the feet as well. Really like him as a dog here.

still vastly prefer his NSC line. he's not a decision fighter and could be laid on
 
I dont see the guillotine here personally. Diak is a body lock td person as opposed to shooting.
 
My fav dog is barboza. Probably closely followed by hooker. I think jury wrestles glenn but with the layoff and where he is or isnt at mentally i cant trust jury.
 
still vastly prefer his NSC line. he's not a decision fighter and could be laid on
Basically same price I got the ml at, atm, less risk. I'll follow that for another .5u. Thanks for the heads up, he's definitely not a guy who likes to go the distnce. In for a 2u now, but I really like it. Might stab another .25 on sub line but I don't want to get too greedy, lol.

Anything else you liking? I really don't like this card much other than Hooker. Feels square but I might bet Vettori which I don't usually do at his price. Still seems like the much better fighter here, tho. Talk about guillotines, his stand up improving too imo.
 
Basically same price I got the ml at, atm, less risk. I'll follow that for another .5u. Thanks for the heads up, he's definitely not a guy who likes to go the distnce. In for a 2u now, but I really like it. Might stab another .25 on sub line but I don't want to get too greedy, lol.

Anything else you liking? I really don't like this card much other than Hooker. Feels square but I might bet Vettori which I don't usually do at his price. Still seems like the much better fighter here, tho. Talk about guillotines, his stand up improving too imo.

i love barboza/barb nsc - posted bets last night, easier to refer you to that than explain all hehe

http://forums.sherdog.com/posts/137102199/
 
HAHAHAHA NO RISK NO FUN LETS GOOOOOOOO
Calvillo
Khalil Rountree
Matheus Nicolau Pereira
Marvin Vetorri
Holm
Barboza
Eliot ( he will fight for his dead coach)
120 to win 4324
 
Man I have almost no bets on this card so far. Just Carla +250 and Cyborg sub +1100. I wish I bet Smolka when he was around +300 but not too tempted at his current price. After rewatching Nicolau/Moraga and seeing how easily Nicolau countered Moraga and almost took no clean punches himself I think he should be able to do the same to Smolka for sure. Smolka has to wrestle I do believe. At the same time, the way Nicolau fights, he's always gonna be in close fights so it doesn't make much sense to bet him as this big of a fav IMO.
 
Last edited:
i love barboza/barb nsc - posted bets last night, easier to refer you to that than explain all hehe

http://forums.sherdog.com/posts/137102199/

Yeah I was just wondering about your bigger plays. You got a ton of bets I see, tho, lol. That's the EZ I know. Thanks, I'll probably end up tossing something on Barboza/nsc as well. I see you're big on those, odds definitely look too steep on Khabib. Looking at your plays, I need to do more rr's too.

GL boys.
 
HAHAHAHA NO RISK NO FUN LETS GOOOOOOOO
Calvillo
Khalil Rountree
Matheus Nicolau Pereira
Marvin Vetorri
Holm
Barboza
Eliot ( he will fight for his dead coach)
120 to win 4324

Holm gonna cost you cashin that cheque.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top