UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

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Yoel wins in round 1 is a decent price at +550 on BM in case anyone wants to hedge Rockhold action or thinks he may go in aggressively and try to KO Luke early.
 
I parlay bet on tai and li jingliang with a little money line on them too. I hope they fuckin win lol. I also money line bet on Ben nguyen.
 
Yoel wins in round 1 is a decent price at +550 on BM in case anyone wants to hedge Rockhold action or thinks he may go in aggressively and try to KO Luke early.
I was thinking the same thing but Yoel really tries to pull an Anderson Silva early- using his feints and gauging his opponents tendencies so he can explode in later rounds. Off the top of my head, I dont know when his last round 1 finish was. But yeah, +550 is nice
 
Honestly though, Luke looks worse in that interview than Yoel did at the scales

yeah i agree. luke isn't the most articulate guy at the best of times but that interview was some straight johnny hendricks crystal meth shit.

luke is obviously having a hard time with the weight cut. i thought he looked terrible on the scales against branch. he needs to move up to 205, your body isn't the same in your early 30s as it is in your mid 20s.
 
Thats pretty bad for my Yoel bet, i kind of completely ignored the short notice because he was supposed to fight Branch in 2 weeks anyway.
 
Thats pretty bad for my Yoel bet, i kind of completely ignored the short notice because he was supposed to fight Branch in 2 weeks anyway.

I don’t think it should affect him that much really. He didn’t really seem like he killed himself during the two extra hours.
 
Yeah he did. He was only 0.16 lbs over anyway so not a big deal.
Yeah. That's probably the result of a faulty scale in his hotel, moreso than concertedly missing weight.
 
So, I assume the general expectation on Tuivasa is a fairly quick T/KO?...but “wins by points” @14.0 is a liiiiittle bit tempting. Maybe even a parlay with Pedro on “ko or points” @2.0 for a total of 28.0....
Just small money for the fun of it, what do you think?
 
So, I assume the general expectation on Tuivasa is a fairly quick T/KO?...but “wins by points” @14.0 is a liiiiittle bit tempting. Maybe even a parlay with Pedro on “ko or points” @2.0 for a total of 28.0....
Just small money for the fun of it, what do you think?
Pedro's got a few clubs/subs, and Safarov's tough as nails.

Maybe the Matthews' line movement is Aussie books hedging their exposure from Australian bettors? I've always kind of wondered if inter-book hedging was a thing.
 
Isn’t Brown just the type of fighter who could bring out the brawler in Kim? I think Kim will start pretty safe but could end up banging. I like Brown R3 (19.0), Brown ko/tko (7.8) and u2.5 (2.5). He needs the win and will go for broke R3 if needed. Then again, Kim already has two UFC losses by R3 tko. Will that mean, that he will try play it extra safe in R3 and rather lose dec than risk another ko? His team mate just got ko’d for getting careless against Stephens.
 
Damn sick burn. I made a losing bet once, therefore being a millionaire from gambling is completely negated lols.
Everyone lose bets, but everyone does not ridicule others for their picks just because they are betting the other side
 
Yoel wins in round 1 is a decent price at +550 on BM in case anyone wants to hedge Rockhold action or thinks he may go in aggressively and try to KO Luke early.

We have Romero +800 R1 at Ladbrokes...
I still like it, even though he missed weight...He's an animal.
 
We have Romero +800 R1 at Ladbrokes...
I still like it, even though he missed weight...He's an animal.

You pretty much HAVE to bet that line. Even if you are REALLY confident Luke wins, that line is just way, WAY off. Luke's boxing just isn't very good. At kicking range he's a solid striker, but when he's crowded he freezes up and is WAY too hittable. Like @iGnP said, Yoel isn't necessarily the guy that rushes in for the immediate kill, but with his power there's a very real chance he catches Luke with something early, even if he's not blitzing him looking for the quick finish.

Maybe it was ring rust vs Branch. Maybe. But for those who are just SOOOOO confident in Luke, how the hell does the early part of that fight not give you pause? Branch is a solid fighter, and Luke survived and came back for a nice win. But if that's someone who hits like Yoel tagging him, Luke no way survives that. Bisping isn't a big puncher and Luke couldn't handle getting hit clean by him either.

This is a fight where there are VERY clear paths to victory for both guys AND where both guys have glaring weaknesses. Yoel is easily the more explosive, powerful guy who can finish fights quickly either standing or with gnp. His wrestling speaks for itself, although in MMA he's been less inclined to try to take guys down than would be expected. In this fight, it's his TDD that might be key. But he (depending on the pace of the fight) has 10-15 minutes worth of cardio, tops. Luke has great kicks, and is a beast top control grappler who is impossible to deal with if he gets guys on their backs. But his boxing is bad (at least if he's forced to fight in close quarters). He doesn't seem to react the best to getting hit (at least recently). Essentially, he doesn't do well with being pressured.

So, my view is that in a fight that really could go either way, bet the dog. If I was going to be home to watch this, I'd be of course looking to live bet Luke after rd 2 depending on what the fight looked like and how much energy Yoel was forced to expend early. But in this spot, making a big bet and paying juice on Luke? Man, I don't get it. Because I can't watch this card live and have no chance to live bet, I am keeping all my action pretty small outside a decent sized bet on Li.
 
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This suggests some chance that he didn't try.

But still you'd think he'd at least lose 0.5 pound to be safe if that's ~$100k salary swing. Gotta be concerned that he has some ailment that his old body is coping poorly with. Even if it's not certain, the possbility has significant bearing on the odds of the fight.


i would be more concerned with lukes chin. 40-year-old usada anderson did get knocked down by a bisping left hook but was never in trouble, rockhold folded up like a 5.00 kmart lawn chair by what was essentially the same punch...in the first two minutes of the fight
 
yeah i agree. luke isn't the most articulate guy at the best of times but that interview was some straight johnny hendricks crystal meth shit.

luke is obviously having a hard time with the weight cut. i thought he looked terrible on the scales against branch. he needs to move up to 205, your body isn't the same in your early 30s as it is in your mid 20s.
Can't be helping dat chin much
 
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