UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

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So far I’m on all dogs except Moicano. Even though Ortega is the signed contender now, it was a hard loss to recover from. Moicano’s game failed in several levels. First his fight iq failed him. He underestmated Ortega’s striking developement and did not adjust even after it was evident after R1. His chin started to fail him in R3 and he was forced to adjust to fight on back foot. Then his nerves failed him when crowd started booing and finally the sub defence failed after hasty and desperate shoot. I really hope he recovers well, but I can’t bet at it at these odds.
 
Well people caught on and blew up that NOT Khabib Dec line a bit. It's -210 now. Do NOT bet it at that price as FDNGD is at -190 now. Play that instead obviously if you are thinking this ends itd.

Edit: maybe Not Khabib Dec is still a better bet, I was thinking about it wrong. But odds now steeper on both. Still value imo, but it's shrinking.
 
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So I’m on thug rose pretty big here, ml and itd

Also On not jj itd

This fight might last a round or two longer but I see it finishing the same way

Don’t like what i hear out of jj. Excuses, denial

She always has tough cuts. This one may have been the worst and her chin gave out a little quicker but I don’t see a lot changing for this fight except for rose being in jjs head even more

I thought Johanna would absolutely tool rose first time around. Not making that mistake again. Johanna Doesnt have a great chin and she’s going to get caught.

Tapping to strikes not a good look

Rose retains and then I get dog price for andrade
 
So I’m on thug rose pretty big here, ml and itd

Also On not jj itd

This fight might last a round or two longer but I see it finishing the same way

Don’t like what i hear out of jj. Excuses, denial

She always has tough cuts. This one may have been the worst and her chin gave out a little quicker but I don’t see a lot changing for this fight except for rose being in jjs head even more

I thought Johanna would absolutely tool rose first time around. Not making that mistake again. Johanna Doesnt have a great chin and she’s going to get caught.

Tapping to strikes not a good look

Rose retains and then I get dog price for andrade
How can people bet a fighter who tapped to strikes in general...
 
So I’m on thug rose pretty big here, ml and itd

Also On not jj itd

This fight might last a round or two longer but I see it finishing the same way

Don’t like what i hear out of jj. Excuses, denial

She always has tough cuts. This one may have been the worst and her chin gave out a little quicker but I don’t see a lot changing for this fight except for rose being in jjs head even more

I thought Johanna would absolutely tool rose first time around. Not making that mistake again. Johanna Doesnt have a great chin and she’s going to get caught.

Tapping to strikes not a good look

Rose retains and then I get dog price for andrade
Me to already have 5 units on Rose, still waiting for props.

Think this fight is going to be much harder fought though. I can see Joana get the W here, but 2,5 / +150 for Rose who just whooped her last November is just to great of an opportunity to pass up on.

At what odds did you cap Rose ITD if I may ask? I see on Bestfightodds that it's only 3,06 / +206 now.
 
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i still feel nauseous when i think of my rose sub bet not cashing.
 
Me to already have 5 units on Rose, still waiting for props.

Think this fight is going to be much harder fought though. I can see Joana get the W here, but 2,5 / +150 for Rose who just whooped her last November is just to great of an opportunity to pass up on.

At what odds did you cap Rose ITD if I may ask? I see on Bestfightodds that it's only 3,06 / +206 now.
If it goes 5 rounds I’d have to think it favors Johanna.

I think the itd prop at over +200 has value, especially when the ml is sitting around +125

I would be very surprised to see rose outpoint Johanna in a 5 round fight
 
Rose is a nice dog, thats True. I like Felice also, last time I bet her when everyone was here on Cortney :) I will pick her this time also. Felice should win this with her wrestling. Will be a nice fight
 
Who the hell is Renato Carneiro and Calvin Kattar ? why those guys in the main card ?
 
For reals bro? Go watch some tape. Both very exciting fighters who both are top 15 FW
Totally for real... I know that some unknown fighters can bang and deliver for obvious reasons when they come to the big league... Many Performances of the Night awards had been earned in the prelims... But, that doesn't mean that they deserve to be above of other well stablished fighters.

Cool that they're exciting fighter in your opinion, but I would take Borg vs Moreno as a better match up than that one for a much attractive main card anytime.
 
Trying to see a path for JJ to win and I just don't see it. There's no adjustments she can make.
 
Agree, I'm taking some Gruetzemacher +140. He looked good standing against Davi Ramos and Lauzon looked so fucking shot in his last fight against Guida
I was initially interested in Gruetzemacher because of how Lauzon looked against Guida but Gritz didn't look good against Ramos (or Skelly). He ate a ton with his pressure style combined with zero defence in round 1. Round 2 he had some success but was outstruck and Ramos was gassing a bit.
That said Lauzon looked terrible standing against Ray (dominated round 1 on the ground though). So if Gritz can avoid the takedown I think he has it.
 
I can't speak to how good Rose's range management looked against JJ. Almost every time JJ would try to hit her with a leg kick or counter with a jab Rose was just slighty out of the way. Testing her range with punches she would dart in and exit at an angle just before getting countered too. Dipping and feinting with the forward movement of her body to draw out an attack. Angles angles angles. I think Trevor Witttman has done an outstanding job with training this young woman. I'm very interested in how this fight will go this time. I expect it to be vastly more competitive .
IMO I think Rose needs to come in with a more kick heavy gameplan this time around. I believe she needs to catch JJ plodding around and she can make her do that by hurting her calf. Haven't really seen anyone attack her calf yet. Shouldn't be too hard for a black belt in TKD to do right? I played Rose ITD for 2.5u. Rose NSC will be another play as well but thats about it for me here I think.
 
Tempted by Pettis @ 1.80. Seems Pettis will win standing and has never been submitted (if you don't count the Poirier fight). Still think Chiesa's only path to victory is submission.
 
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I know it's unpopular. But I actually think there was something wrong with JJ that fight. I think she's being honest with what happened.
 
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