UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

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My main concern with Felder was always his inactivity. But it seems like he's completely fixed that over his last few fights.

Not sure I follow you here. The Do Bronx fight took place almost exclusively on the ground and likewise the Ray fight in the clinch/on the ground. I'm not taking much from the Ricci fight as he's barely UFC level if at all IMO.
 
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Not sure I follow you here. The Do Bronx fight took place almost exclusively on the ground and likewise the Ray fight in the clinch/on the ground. I'm not taking much from the Ricci fight as he's barley UFC level if at all IMO.

The Olives fight yeah. But when he was standing with Ray esp he wasn't just stalking looking to counter but never letting his hands go (like he used to do). He was throwing. It wasn't a lot of time, but I liked what I saw.

And yeah Ricci sucks but Felder was active there too iirc.
 
The Olives fight yeah. But when he was standing with Ray esp he wasn't just stalking looking to counter but never letting his hands go (like he used to do). He was throwing. It wasn't a lot of time, but I liked what I saw.

And yeah Ricci sucks but Felder was active there too iirc.

Not much at all happened in the Ray fight before they clinched up about a minute in. I think Felder needs to hurt Al multiple times to win a decision here, which is possible I suppose. If I'm playing Felder here I'd be on his NSC line at +105 or his KO line at +365.
 
Yeah I feel ya man it's smart and I like your style
But... seems to me you've covered the variable of picking the winner, and I don't wanna jinx your bet but I can totally see Khabib winning a decision my initial notes I made on this fight were
Khabib wins first 3 heavy
Tony wins last two
Khabib decision
Based on Tony's toughness and Khabibs 'weight cut'

Like I say I like your style but sometimes just go with the easy money?
"Easy money" is an illusion brah, it's all about finding bad lines. You talk about Khabib winning as if it were a certainty-- does that mean you'd bet him at -300? -400? -600?
If you would say no to any one of those, then you and mkess are on the same page but just disagree on the specifics probabilities at play. For my 2cents? Somebody's getting finished here. Khabib TKO is my forecasted outcome, not Khabib DEC.
 
Personally think the most likely outcomes are Khabib decision or Ferguson winning the fight in the later rounds. I'm only betting Ferg 3, 4, and 5
 
Not much at all happened in the Ray fight before they clinched up about a minute in. I think Felder needs to hurt Al multiple times to win a decision here, which is possible I suppose. If I'm playing Felder here I'd be on his NSC line at +105 or his KO line at +365.

I need to rewatch that fight maybe. I remember Ray backing up and Felder throwing combos at him a bit early on.
 
Personally think the most likely outcomes are Khabib decision or Ferguson winning the fight in the later rounds. I'm only betting Ferg 3, 4, and 5
Didn't Khabib say he could have gotten Barboza out of there in round 1 but just wanted to stay in the Octagon for experience's sake? I think he'll gun for a finish.
 
Didn't Khabib say he could have gotten Barboza out of there in round 1 but just wanted to stay in the Octagon for experience's sake? I think he'll gun for a finish.
I dont see that being a likely outcome, honestly. Firstly, I just cant see Khabib finishing Tony later in the fight. It could obviously happen but I think that's pretty unlikely. I'd really give Khabib like 2.5-3 round window of finishing him. Then when you consider how these guys match up, Ferg has the tools to at least attempt to nullify Khabib's game. He has great reach, pretty solid take down defense, threat of a submission, and he's pretty tough on top of it. It's not gonna look like the MJ or Edson fights. And as much as others ITT wanna say Ferg is a 'live by the sword, die by the sword' kinda guy, I think he's a smart guy who probably realizes his cardio is an x-factor. I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to drag Khabib into deep waters rather than go balls to the wall early if he were to be taken down. I can see him returning fire but I don't think he tries the same sort of wild techniques that'll put himself in a bad spot where he could be finished
 
No idea why everyone thinks Khalabeeb vs Tony ends itd. Khabib showed much improved cardio last fight + never gets hurt. Incredibly doubtful Tony subs him. Is Tony really gonna get finished by a dude who was struggling to finish Flake Johnson? I just don't see it, especially at minus odds.

Last fight was 3 rounds. Khabib looked...okay in round 3 but still not as active as early in the fight. And he was literally the hammer the ENTIRE fight.

This is 5 rounds and Khabib has never been past 3. And if Tony has ANY time early in the fight where he's actually getting the better of it, that taxes Khabib's gas tank more.
 
I dont see that being a likely outcome, honestly. Firstly, I just cant see Khabib finishing Tony later in the fight. It could obviously happen but I think that's pretty unlikely. I'd really give Khabib like 2.5-3 round window of finishing him. Then when you consider how these guys match up, Ferg has the tools to at least attempt to nullify Khabib's game. He has great reach, pretty solid take down defense, threat of a submission, and he's pretty tough on top of it. It's not gonna look like the MJ or Edson fights. And as much as others ITT wanna say Ferg is a 'live by the sword, die by the sword' kinda guy, I think he's a smart guy who probably realizes his cardio is an x-factor. I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to drag Khabib into deep waters rather than go balls to the wall early if he were to be taken down. I can see him returning fire but I don't think he tries the same sort of wild techniques that'll put himself in a bad spot where he could be finished

If Tony just tries to tie Khabib up in his rubber guard and stall out for long stretches I will be proven very wrong, and probably pay the price when Khabib wins by dec.

I just don't see that happening. Maybe for short stretches here and there but Tony is ALWAYS looking for some angle to attack. It will go completely against character and what he's done for a long time if he stays on his back for long stretches.

I can see him giving away round 1. But if round 2 is him getting taken down right away, borderline-reckless Tony shows up is my prediction.
 
Dudes in here would have bet their life savings on JJ at this price the first fight. Now there are dudes in here saying they see no way JJ can win

It's not like Rose dominated her for 2 or 3 rounds. She got her FIRST TKO quickly against an opponent never stopped by strikes

i rarely play favorites but love jj in this spot. i think the chance of a free roll here in live betting is very very high
 
Thats how this works though. No one is always gonna be right or have an accurate read. Rose fought a great fight, looked like she was distinctly faster with her feet and hands, and JJ finally got finished after getting rocked by both KK and Claudia. Why would anyone pretend the first fight never happened?

If anything, seems smart to admit fault, recognize Rose is possibly a very bad match up, and take advantage of those plus odds in a rematch 5 months later of a fight where the favorite got smoked.

As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. I agree, it's foolish to just dismiss the first fight and what we saw happen. That's just trying to invent new realities.

But...

You also need to examine WHY it happened, why JJ was such a big favorite to begin with, etc.

Personally (just my view), I don't think JJ respected Rose's striking AT ALL. I think she figured the ONLY threat Rose posed is if she could get it to the mat. I think she was cocky, thought she'd just walk through Rose while they were standing, and could shrug off any TD attempts. I also think Rose HAS improved her striking significantly and looked unquestionably faster and crisper than ever before.

So the question I guess is, can we expect JJ to be sharper and more on point in now knowing that Rose obviously has the skills and ability to hurt and finish her standing? And can we expect the adjustments made by JJ to be enough to get her the win this time?

I honestly still don't know the answer. I'm not sure how I'll bet this fight.
 
Lauzon nsc -168

Ill take that. Gruetzemacher aint finishing shit. Not much power and mainly a grinder.

I've been a Creepy Joe fan forever, but dude's chin might be SHOT. I know Gruetz isn't maybe the guy to capitalize, but Joe might be entering that phase where a stiff breeze KO's him. I hope not, I really do, but he's been through WARS over the years, and has started looking slow and was KO'd by Guida of all people.
 
Shes a big favorite cause minus that weak chin having its moments she was on a great string of title defenses, and Rose has had her losses in close fights with KK and Tecia, much different fighters than what JJ brings to the table. But what SBJJ is leaving out, sure there were those very confident, but there was also people who weren't blinded (gamblers and media alike, considering i'm pretty sure Heavy Hands talked about this) and were well aware this was a much different fight than what both are used to whether JJ wins or not. The odds didn't tell that story, but ultimately the fight did, and Rose looked way too quick and JJ has a horrid chin.

I'd disagree with your assessment, especially when its an easy to debate hypothetical considering Rose dodged a lot of shots early which should've acted as JJ's cue that she can't be cocky. But a smart gambler should realize its fair enough to believe that, but its more belief than anything that can be stated as fact, so still not worth risking on JJ at the better price than first time.

Even without having an idea how the fight will go, which is fair, I think there is a very clear bet for all. And thats Rose NSC. Shame those itd prices corrected themselves or Rose NSC would've opened at + odds, but honestly at anything better than like -250 I think its great. JJ needs to corner you and reign volume for a finish, not gonna happen vs Rose with that footwork. And JJ chin is terrible. I love this line so much.

Well, that's another thing to look at then (your point about JJ realizing Rose's standup had improved drastically from the tape of her previous fights). Maybe JJ doesn't make good in-fight adjustments at all (which would be a knock against her).

I may get on board the Rose NSC boat. I can see the sound rationale behind it. Need to do a bit more research.
 
Fair that his chin could be deteriorating but at the prices i'm willing to take that shot with 1u, maybe 2 if lines get back in that area after getting moved. If his chin and wars weren't a question, this would be capped around -300 at least, and I still think its up in the air with Joe even if all signs point to that being the case any fight now. Guida is kinda still a stud and dropped Kawajiri too. Gritz is bottom of the barrel in the division with seemingly very little power.

Clay can still fight, but he has like 5 KO wins in 50 fights, and I think like 2 are from him landing strikes while standing. The last one was a decade ago. He has no power really. Which is why I was so big on Joe NSC against Clay.

I agree that Gruetz has little power too. And he's a way worse overall fighter than Clay. But man, IDK, Joe might be DONE.
 
10th Planet JJ was developed to counter control based grapplers, plus new rules dictate damage over control. Anyone who says Ferg is fucked in this fight probably is biased and/or has minimal knowledge on MMA.

Tony will be dangerous every minute of the fight because of the bottom game, superior standup and his insane cardio. He'll most likely lose the first round because he takes a it to get warmed up but once engines are go in the second and third round, the fight will get interesting.
 
Shes a big favorite cause minus that weak chin having its moments she was on a great string of title defenses, and Rose has had her losses in close fights with KK and Tecia, much different fighters than what JJ brings to the table. But what SBJJ is leaving out, sure there were those very confident, but there was also people who weren't blinded (gamblers and media alike, considering i'm pretty sure Heavy Hands talked about this) and were well aware this was a much different fight than what both are used to whether JJ wins or not. The odds didn't tell that story, but ultimately the fight did

I'd disagree with your assessment, especially when its an easy to debate hypothetical considering Rose dodged a lot of shots early which should've acted as JJ's cue that she can't be cocky. But a smart gambler should realize its fair enough to believe that, but its more belief than anything that can be stated as fact, so still not worth risking on JJ at the better price than first time.

Even without having an idea how the fight will go, which is fair, I think there is a very clear bet for all. And thats Rose NSC. Shame those itd prices corrected themselves or Rose NSC would've opened at + odds, but honestly at anything better than like -250 I think its great. JJ needs to corner you and reign volume for a finish, not gonna happen vs Rose with that footwork. And JJ chin is terrible. I love this line so much.

I actually bet Rose the first fight. Won close to 5k on the fight

But that short fight did not tell a complete story IMO.
 
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