Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

[mkess101]

GL man. I made 30 prop bets this season and my overall record was 13-15-2. Out of those 17 that didn't cash, 8 of them were due to the player not meeting his season MPG (5 min below season MPG was my criteria) in playing time (foul trouble, game being a blow out, injury, etc etc). Point im trying to make is: I've lost my fair share of prop bets because of situations like this and I'd actually pass on a bet because of a high spread like this and the variance that comes with it. I also think the "under" in prop bets have inherent value because of this, along with the line maybe being a little shaded because the books know CP3 is out. Obv doesn't mean you're gonna lose or anything, just my two cents.

I looked at the 2 blowout GS wins and Paul was playing so Gordon had the ball a lot less but still played 31+ minutes. But he didn't come close to going over this #. Again, Paul playing so not a great comparison but I think you are right I went a bit too big. Like moved a bit in my favor so I hedged out 1u at a small loss. Still have 2u on it.

 

[iGnP]

I looked at the 2 blowout GS wins and Paul was playing so Gordon had the ball a lot less but still played 31+ minutes. But he didn't come close to going over this #. Again, Paul playing so not a great comparison but I think you are right I went a bit too big. Like moved a bit in my favor so I hedged out 1u at a small loss. Still have 2u on it.

Am I crazy for wanting to bet on houston spread tonight? I probably won’t but GS has been shit ATS as home favs over ten points

 

[mkess101]

Am I crazy for wanting to bet on houston spread tonight? I probably won’t but GS has been shit ATS as home favs over ten points

I have been thinking about this spread and to me it REEKS of a back door Houston cover where they literally are never a threat to make the game close but cut a 16 point lead to 10 in the last minute or 2. Probably a pass for me though.

 

[iGnP]

KD trying his best to ruin the Warriors dynasty w this first quarter LMAO

 

[mkess101]

Like I was saying, Rockets first quarter -16.5 is a lock LOL.

So I go to see about W's at some okay odds and they are -130. Nope. I get that they can (and very well might) make up this 17 point deficit quickly or easily, but I'm not paying juice for that.

 

[iGnP]

So square but I maxed -195 on Warriors

 

[mkess101]

Took o221.5 live. Refs calling this game REALLY tight for the most part.

 

[Monster Meat]

what the hell are the warriors doing this team looks like absolute shit lately

 

[mkess101]

what the hell are the warriors doing this team looks like absolute shit lately

It doesn't explain their offensive woes, but they REALLY miss Iggy on the defensive end.

 

[iGnP]

what the hell are the warriors doing this team looks like absolute shit lately

Imo they’re trying to find a good middle with their motion offense and giving KD the isolation sets he wants. You can almost instantly tell when the play is going to KD when the ball is being brought up the court. The four other players seem so disinterested Bc they know they won’t be touching it. In this series, KD looks a lot like Westbrook in OKC. That’s how I see it at least

 

[iGnP]

Lol at -195 probably having value w a team being down 17 points. So square but I think I dodged a bullet here

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Is it me or is Houston mentally checked out going into the 4th?

 

[Monster Meat]

Lol at -195 probably having value w a team being down 17 points. So square but I think I dodged a bullet here

yea that dominating 3rd quarter and it has carried over in the 4th. Klay and curry got hot and Harden got tired and tried to put the team on his back.

 

[iGnP]

yea that dominating 3rd quarter and it has carried over in the 4th. Klay and curry got hot and Harden got tired and tried to put the team on his back.

It was just a matter of time. Most unsafe 17 point lead in NBA history lol

 

[Monster Meat]

my warriors futures are alive but man they havent looked so good the past few games other than these last two quarters. Hopefully they can play well enough in houston.

 

[Monster Meat]

It was just a matter of time. Most unsafe 17 point lead in NBA history lol

oh yea i agree what the lead when you got -195?

 

[mkess101]

my warriors futures are alive but man they havent looked so good the past few games other than these last two quarters. Hopefully they can play well enough in houston.

With their talent and the style they play, they can play poorly for 30 minutes and still win by 20 against good teams. Because the 18 minutes they play like they are capable they absolutely decimate the other team like no team in basketball history.

I remember watching Jordan when the Bulls were at their peak. And the Warriors now remind me, in a purely psychological way, of Jordan himself back then (not the Bulls teams, but Jordan as a player). What I mean is that they absolutely take the soul of their opponent and it's so visually evident a lot of the time. They go on these crazy 15-0 runs and it's like they are drowning the other team. Jordan used to do that, where a team would make a run and cut a lead down to 4 or something and he'd hit 3 fallaway jumpers in a row to push it back to 10 and just look at the other team like "You know you have zero chance here, just stop trying so we can all get out of here and catch our planes."

 

[iGnP]

oh yea i agree what the lead when you got -195?

I think i got it right when GS was down 14 and they fouled Harden on a 3 point attempt. Hard to say, I have a site that gives me dynamic odds during the game. I don’t have to wait for a timeout or end of quarter. But I have to pay -120 and I have limits. Still worth it, though

Edit I mean I have to pay -120 for any spread odds, obv not ML odds

 

[iGnP]

With their talent and the style they play, they can play poorly for 30 minutes and still win by 20 against good teams. Because the 18 minutes they play like they are capable they absolutely decimate the other team like no team in basketball history.

I remember watching Jordan when the Bulls were at their peak. And the Warriors now remind me, in a purely psychological way, of Jordan himself back then (not the Bulls teams, but Jordan as a player). What I mean is that they absolutely take the soul of their opponent and it's so visually evident a lot of the time. They go on these crazy 15-0 runs and it's like they are drowning the other team. Jordan used to do that, where a team would make a run and cut a lead down to 4 or something and he'd hit 3 fallaway jumpers in a row to push it back to 10 and just look at the other team like "You know you have zero chance here, just stop trying so we can all get out of here and catch our planes."

Your prop bet looked so good early! Ugh sorry it ended that way man

 

[Monster Meat]

I think i got it right when GS was down 14 and they fouled Harden on a 3 point attempt. Hard to say, I have a site that gives me dynamic odds during the game. I don’t have to wait for a timeout or end of quarter. But I have to pay -120 and I have limits. Still worth it, though

Edit I mean I have to pay -120 for any spread odds, obv not ML odds

Nice ballsy but yea we all knew they would win this. They have been money in the third quarters glad to see they didn’t suck In the 4th this time.