Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[kenfloshogun]

I haven't even looked at Friday or Saturday's races yet, K, but if you want I can do the numbers for some of those later on today and see if something stands out.

Thanks Shark! Don't do them just for me but if you do happen to do them I will definitely take a look

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks Shark! Don't do them just for me but if you do happen to do them I will definitely take a look

It's no trouble, K. I'll just be doing the horse matchups there rather than the whole fields, so it won't take long. I don't have a good system that I trust enough for turf races, though.

 

[Sharkey]

@kenfloshogun

Could only do three of the matchups, bud, with two of those being turf races and then another couple where the horses simply haven't had enough races yet to get a good number on.

==========

Chalon - 553.8
Divine Miss Grey - 573.6 (may have the positional advantage in the race as well and could compromise Chalon by pinning that one on the rail)

Limousine Liberal - 552.4
Whitmore - 530.3 (lots of speed in the race on paper so may have the race flow advantage)

Unbridled Mo - 555.2
Pacific Wind - 537.4

==========

 

[Sharkey]

Finally got a bet in with that horse at Delaware Park going off at 5/1. Looked like a winner all the way to the end when it got a little leg weary late and the favourite ended up passing it. Got whiskered out for 2nd as well.

 

[Sharkey]

I thought there was a chance this one might be worth a look earlier today when I did the other races and it's currently sitting at 18/1 with 12 minutes to post;

Race 7 at Evangeline - #9 Our Golden Girl 8/1 (17.5% = 9/2 fair odds)

It's going to come down quite a bit from it's current odds, but should still be a very playable price for me based on the multi-race will pays

 

[Black Paladin]

A longer shot than I had won the turf race I looked at (5th at Belmont).

Lezcano is a turf master. He, Rajiv Maragh, and Julien Leparoux all are. So, I can't say I am completely surprised he brought that high-priced mount in.

 

[Sharkey]

A longer shot than I had won the turf race I looked at (5th at Belmont).

Lezcano is a turf master. He, Rajiv Maragh, and Julien Leparoux all are. So, I can't say I am completely surprised he brought that high-priced mount in.

Your horse ran well too, BP, considering the odds you got on it. Nice pick.

 

[Sharkey]

All three of my horses came up with nothing today with only one of them giving me any kind of hope in the stretch. Down $70 in total on those three. Oh well. Can afford a bad day every now and then.

 

[Sharkey]

A couple of possibilities for me today;

Race 6 at Woodbine - #8 Hansen's Girl 7/2 (26.2% = 3/1 fair odds)

Race 8 at Belmont - #6 Westwood 6/1 (25.7% = 3/1 fair odds)

 

[t6p]

@Sharkey

I'm thinking about going with these for the Belmont (basically what you and @ImNotSurpisedDonks! have already suggested):

Justify, Tenfold / Justify, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg
Justify, Tenfold / Justify, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg / Justify, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg

Based on the numbers it seems like Bravazo would be the only other logical choice to include and your write up put me off him, even though he ran well for us in the Preakness. I'm also considering a W/P/S bet on Tenfold. He's +1025 to win on my book right now, but I'm not sure if he'll be paying even better by race time.

 

[Sharkey]

The Belmont Stakes post positions and morning line odds;

#1 Justify 4/5
#2 Free Drop Billy 30/1
#3 Bravazo 8/1
#4 Hofburg 9/2
#5 Restoring Hope 30/1
#6 Gronkowski 12/1
#7 Tenfold 12/1
#8 Vino Rosso 8/1
#9 Noble Indy 30/1
#10 Blended Citizen 15/1


Have at it @t6p!

My initial feeling was to play the Belmont this way, and nothing has changed since then;

- Tenfold to win for $20
- Tenfold, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso in a $5 exacta box

Justify won't be nearly as overbet in the exotics as he will be in the win pool, but I still want to try to beat him out of the top 2 spots. May be difficult task, though, as he is the most likely winner of the race even if there are questions there.

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey

I'm thinking about going with these for the Belmont (basically what you and @ImNotSurpisedDonks! have already suggested):

Justify, Tenfold / Justify, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg
Justify, Tenfold / Justify, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg / Justify, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg

Based on the numbers it seems like Bravazo would be the only other logical choice to include and your write up put me off him, even though he ran well for us in the Preakness. I'm also considering a W/P/S bet on Tenfold. He's +1025 to win on my book right now, but I'm not sure if he'll be paying even better by race time.

I like it, T. But you know that already. Actually, if I was to make one small recommendation for a change I'd try to get Hofburg some coverage in 1st just to be safe. Maybe play the exacta like this instead?

Tenfold, Hofburg / Justify, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg

Justify over the other three in the exacta isn't really going to pay much as you know, and you might only be playing to get your money back on your total exacta investment depending on your combo. Probably in the 4/1 to 8/1 range on the payout there and you're playing 6 combos. Is an exacta with Justify on top something you really want to hit? If not, then, you know. Any combination in the exacta with Justify out of the top spot is going to pay very well, though. Plus you have plenty of coverage with him in the trifecta if he does run a big race.

 

[Sharkey]

4/1 to 8/1 is probably on the light side, mind you. Maybe closer to the 5/1 to 10/1 range depending. But there's no Good Magic in this race, though, where in the Preakness a ton of people were playing that straight Justify over Good Magic combo (would have paid only 5/2), which inflated the payouts on the other exacta possibilities.

 

[Sharkey]

Based on the numbers it seems like Bravazo would be the only other logical choice to include and your write up put me off him, even though he ran well for us in the Preakness. I'm also considering a W/P/S bet on Tenfold. He's +1025 to win on my book right now, but I'm not sure if he'll be paying even better by race time.

This is just my opinion, T, but I think you already got paid what you could with Bravazo in the Preakness. He was really only the 4th best horse in that race too, who just happened to get a perfect setup/trip in the race. Both Justify and Good Magic ran better than him obviously. As did Tenfold even, who got pinballed by Diamond King to his inside on the first turn and then pinballed again by Bravazo to his inside on the far turn. Tenfold's jock also moved too early on him, I thought, and maybe even cost him the win. Bravazo got a great ride sitting just behind the pace battle up front, and then basically just sucked up for 2nd once the other horses in front of him started tiring. When you factor in that perfect trip he got wasn't quite good enough, his tough race schedule, and then also the possibility that he's the one pressuring Justify early tomorrow (a battle that, while it might soften up Justify, is not one he'll win). He's not without a shot for a good finish if he has everything go his way again, and there's also still something left in his tank. I just think the last time was the time to have money invested in him, though, and tomorrow he won't be much of a factor late.

I'm not sure what kind of price you'll get on Tenfold tomorrow with your book to be honest. Justify will be bet down to 2/5 in the pools I'm thinking. Maybe even 1/5 when factoring in all the souvenir tickets. There's not going to be much room for many other horses to be single digit odds if that's the case with him. Hofburg will be single digits I suspect. Then maybe one or two others if the public is undecided behind Justify. But I'm expecting at least 10/1 on Tenfold myself when I bet him tomorrow.

 

[t6p]

I like it, T. But you know that already. Actually, if I was to make one small recommendation for a change I'd try to get Hofburg some coverage in 1st just to be safe. Maybe play the exacta like this instead?

Tenfold, Hofburg / Justify, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg

Justify over the other three in the exacta isn't really going to pay much as you know, and you might only be playing to get your money back on your total exacta investment depending on your combo. Probably in the 4/1 to 8/1 range on the payout there and you're playing 6 combos. Is an exacta with Justify on top something you really want to hit? If not, then, you know. Any combination in the exacta with Justify out of the top spot is going to pay very well, though. Plus you have plenty of coverage with him in the trifecta if he does run a big race.

Great suggestion Shark, thanks. I'll definitely go in that direction. Unfortunately, it looks like I may not be able to watch the race live, which really sucks.

 

[Sharkey]

Great suggestion Shark, thanks. I'll definitely go in that direction. Unfortunately, it looks like I may not be able to watch the race live, which really sucks.

Just a thought, T. It's your call in the end of course. Gives you a little bit more protection and should ensure at least decent profit for you if a dangerous horse like Hofburg does run a big one tomorrow. Plus you still have Justify covered well in the trifecta. The only danger there is if Justify wins and one of the horses you're not playing finishes 3rd. All that scenario means is that your loss on the race becomes a little more. But we don't play to "lose a little" on here right T?

 

[t6p]

Just a thought, T. It's your call in the end of course. Gives you a little bit more protection and should ensure at least decent profit for you if a dangerous horse like Hofburg does run a big one tomorrow. Plus you still have Justify covered well in the trifecta. The only danger there is if Justify wins and one of the horses you're not playing finishes 3rd. All that scenario means is that your loss on the race becomes a little more. But we don't play to "lose a little" on here right T?

Exactly bud. I guess I wasn't thinking that Justify would go off at that short of a price. Your suggestion is the way to go for sure.

 

[Sharkey]

A couple of possibilities for me today;

Race 6 at Woodbine - #8 Hansen's Girl 7/2 (26.2% = 3/1 fair odds)

Race 8 at Belmont - #6 Westwood 6/1 (25.7% = 3/1 fair odds)

There's a couple of scratches in the 8th race at Belmont, including Limousine Liberal, which now means I've adjusted Westwood to a 37.6% chance and 9/5 fair odds. I really did not want any scratches in this race, though, as the percentage is just based on the numbers. I actually liked him a little more than that when visualizing how the race may play out (love his potential positional advantage in it) and thought about taking a shot by keying him in exactas and tris. I could still do that I suppose (#6 over #4, #8), but the return won't be nearly as much now.

 

[Monster Meat]

No Bets yet but I’m liking bravazo and hofburg a lot. They seem like the most likely
Horses to beat justify. Tenfold is one I will play in exotics but he seemed to tire down the stretch in the Preakness and not sure he is bred for distance. Gronkowski I feel is going to be bet based on name value. I’ll throw in vino Rossi in a few things as well.

 

[Monster Meat]

Here we go let’s try for 3 for 3 exactas on the big races

$4 box bravazo hofberg
$1 tri box Bravazo hofberg justify
$2 exacta box bravazo vino rosso
$2 exacta box hofberg tenfold
$1 exacta box (long shot) gronkowski blended citizen
$1 Super bravazo hofberg justify tenfold
$1 Super hofberg justify bravazo blended citizen
$2 exacta box bravazo blended citizen