Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Hell yea! Nice hit Shark.

Thanks T.

The greed in me wishes the #8 horse would have gotten one more position and finished 3rd instead of the 4th he got, though. That guy was 15/1 when leaving the gates, and if he got 3rd that trifecta would have paid at least 1000/1. Maybe 1200/1. The greed in me also wishes I didn't do so much damage to my account the past week and could afford to risk a little bit more. But hey, I made out more than okay on that race even betting it small. Hit the exacta straight as really nothing more than a throw in wager to make it an even $20 risked in total as well. Haha.

Win or learn, right T? Without the losing I did I wouldn't have found a couple of new pace pattern angles to use, so not all was lost. But even with this nice win today and the one from last night, my account still looks like shit compared to what it was a couple of weeks ago. I have my work cut out to change that for sure, but I'll be trying.

 

[Sharkey]

Hell yea! Nice hit Shark.

By the way, T. Congrats on crushing the shit out of the UFC event last night. Great job.

 

[t6p]

By the way, T. Congrats on crushing the shit out of the UFC event last night. Great job.

Thanks my friend. I’m hoping for a strong last quarter of the year. I’m up a decent amount for 2018 but I’m still behind last year’s pace by quite a bit. Very happy with last night’s result of course.

 

[Sharkey]

I think I'm going to a simplified version of my formula for a while and just use the particulars in it that measure form, class, and speed (early & final). I've added so much junk to it over the last six months or so that I think I'm way overvaluing secondary stuff that doesn't matter nearly as much as the three main components of capping. The aspects of form, class, and speed are taking up about 70% to 75% of the final number I get now depending on the horse, but in reality it should be closer to 85% or 90% of the final number based on the way I think. But until I can get a better way to measure secondary stuff and not overvalue it like I have been doing I think I'll stick to form, class, and speed for a while with the secondary stuff only being noted, but not factored into the equation.

e.g. This #9 horse that won race 10 for me today at Woodbine scored a 476.8 overall, but only scored a 347.8 if just measuring those 3 aspects that should be way more important. That's 27% of the number on secondary shit that shouldn't matter nearly that much. Maybe half of that.

 

[Sharkey]

Have a couple of options today on potentially good prices on horses with positive pace patterns;


Race 2 at Louisiana Downs (1:45) - #3 Little Red Kid 15/1 (15.6% = 6/1 fair odds)(HLS, E2)

Race 9 at Finger Lakes (1:46) - #4 Spectacularsociano 6/1 (25.4% = 3/1 fair odds)(NPT, E2)


I'm thinking I might need a little better than the 3/1 fair odds I have listed for this Finger Lakes horse just because it's last race may have been it's peak effort of it's current form cycle. I would have passed on this horse completely if it wasn't for the fact that the other main contenders in the race have the exact same concern.

 

[Sharkey]

So uh, it looks like this pace pattern stuff can work on turf as well. I didn't bet as I was in observing mode, but the #7 Cloontia just won the 5th at Saratoga at 6/1 while being a HLS, E2 and OS horse. I noticed this on Saturday as well on the turf, including the horse that won the G1 Sword Dancer (Glorious Empire, who entered as a LET and E2 type) at 16/1.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 2 at Louisiana Downs (1:45) - #3 Little Red Kid 15/1 (15.6% = 6/1 fair odds)(HLS, E2)

35/1 on this guy with just over 10 mins to post. Doubles say he'll easily be the longest shot on the board so I'll go across with him for $2/$4/$4.

Yeah, he may run like a 35/1 shot. But I have to try him if I think he's 5 times the odds more than he should be.

 

[Sharkey]

...And just like that he's dropped down to 14/1. I only put $10 in total on him, I swear.

 

[Sharkey]

Oh, come on. 9/1 now.

 

[Sharkey]

Meh. 4th at 15/1. He ran well for most of the race, but got run down late.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 9 at Finger Lakes (1:46) - #4 Spectacularsociano 6/1 (25.4% = 3/1 fair odds)(NPT, E2)

And here I was worried that this guy would get bet down too much. 20/1 with a couple of mins to post, and I have him as the top horse in the race. He should get some last minute money, though.

 

[Sharkey]

Another meh 4th and with a 16/1 horse this time.

 

[Sharkey]

Just two options for me again later on today;

==========

Race 8 at Finger Lakes (1:19) - #6 Grassarla 6/1 (22.3% = 7/2 fair odds), (ranks 2nd of 8), (HLS, OS)

Race 8 at Thistledown (2:10) - #7 Nicamore 5/1 (17.6% = 5/1 fair odds), (ranks 3rd of 10), (NPT, E2, HLS, OS)

==========

 

[Sharkey]

Just two options for me again later on today;

==========

Race 8 at Finger Lakes (1:19) - #6 Grassarla 6/1 (22.3% = 7/2 fair odds), (ranks 2nd of 8), (HLS, OS)

Race 8 at Thistledown (2:10) - #7 Nicamore 5/1 (17.6% = 5/1 fair odds), (ranks 3rd of 10), (NPT, E2, HLS, OS)

==========

The 1st horse here scratched from the race at Finger Lakes. The 2nd horse had the lead early, but faded badly late and could only manage 5th at 14/1.

 

[Sharkey]

Well this stinks. There's not a single horse I can find tomorrow with both positive pace patterns and the potential to go off at a good price.

"My name is Bobby and I am an addict... You know, you folks aren't here because you're gamblers. You are here because you are terrible gamblers. These folks don't need to stop doing what they're doing, they just need to get better at it. Who's dealing? Who's in?"

 

[Sharkey]

Couple of options for me tomorrow;

==========

Race 3 at Saratoga (turf)(11:06) - #5 Radiant Beauty 9/2 (18.5% = 9/2 fair odds)(ranks 2nd of 7)(NPT, HLS, OS)

Race 2 at Gulfstream (11:29) - #6 Fafa 15/1 (21.3% = 4/1 fair odds)(ranks tied 2nd of 6)(NPT, HLS, OS)

==========

 

[Sharkey]

The G1 Woodward is a really interesting race on Saturday at Saratoga even though it's lacking in a lot of G1 depth. I did the numbers for it using the stripped down version of the formula and then calculated win probability after that, which, unless I messed up, should add up to 100% give or take a decimal point. I don't have the morning line odds yet, although I suspect Gunnevera will be favourite.

==========

#4 Tapwrit 6/1 - 378.7 (16.1%)
#1 Yoshida 5/1 - 373.7 (13.9%)(NPT, E2, HLS)
#10 Seeking the Soul 9/2 - 371.9 (13.1%)
#14 Rally Cry 20/1 - 365.7 (10.3%)
#13 Zanotti 20/1 - 364.1 (9.5%)
#9 Gunnevera 4/1 - 361.2 (8.7%)
#12 Sunny Ridge 8/1 - 359.4 (7.4%)
#8 Discreet Lover 8/1 - 356.7 (6.1%)
#11 Leofric 20/1 - 356.3 (6.0%)
#2 Imperative 30/1 - 350.5 (3.3%)
#5 Hence 20/1 - 348.8 (2.6%)
#7 Kurilov 10/1 - 346.0 (1.3%)
#6 Term of Art 30/1 - 343.3 (1.0%)
#3 Patch 20/1 - 341.3 (0.7%)

==========

 

[t6p]

The G1 Woodward is a really interesting race on Saturday at Saratoga even though it's lacking in a lot of G1 depth. I did the numbers for it using the stripped down version of the formula and then calculated win probability after that, which, unless I messed up, should add up to 100% give or take a decimal point. I don't have the morning line odds yet, although I suspect Gunnevera will be favourite.

==========

#4 Tapwrit - 378.7 (16.1%)
#1 Yoshida - 373.7 (13.9%)(NPT, E2, HLS)
#10 Seeking the Soul - 371.9 (13.1%)
#14 Rally Cry - 365.7 (10.3%)
#13 Zanotti - 364.1 (9.5%)
#9 Gunnevera - 361.2 (8.7%)
#12 Sunny Ridge - 359.4 (7.4%)
#8 Discreet Lover - 356.7 (6.1%)
#11 Leofric - 356.3 (6.0%)
#2 Imperative - 350.5 (3.3%)
#5 Hence - 348.8 (2.6%)
#7 Kurilov - 346.0 (1.3%)
#6 Term of Art - 343.3 (1.0%)
#3 Patch - 341.3 (0.7%)

==========

Thanks for running the numbers Shark. I'm hoping to be at the track watching live on Saturday. Looks like this will be a good betting race if Gunnevera is indeed the favorite.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks for running the numbers Shark. I'm hoping to be at the track watching live on Saturday. Looks like this will be a good betting race if Gunnevera is indeed the favorite.

Cheers T. This was just the raw numbers based on form, class, and speed, though. I didn't really look at anything else in the race (stuff that I would have accounted for previously...or overly accounted for) besides compiling those. Tapwrit scored a little better than I thought he would. Gunnevera scored a little worse than I would have thought. If I was asked to pick a horse beforehand without looking at PP's it most definitely would have been Yoshida, though, so it's nice to see him both score well and have some nice pace patterns going in. I've been high on that horse's talents for a while now. Ever since he dominated a turf race on the Preakness undercard last year. He has to answer the turf to dirt question, but I'm thinking I'll probably be keying around him in exotics in this race, and then playing him straight if at the right odds. My early plans anyways. But we'll look at the race more in the next couple of days since, like you said, it could be a great betting race with it being a big field with a potentially vulnerable favourite and then a horse like Patch in it.

The PP's if you want to take a gander for yourself;

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

 

[Sharkey]

Race 3 at Saratoga (turf)(11:06) - #5 Radiant Beauty 9/2 (18.5% = 9/2 fair odds)(ranks 2nd of 7)(NPT, HLS, OS)

This race has been taken off the turf according to Andy Serling, so it's very likely I'm going to pass completely on it unless in the unlikely scenario that I get a price that's just too good to pass on.