Tapwrit will take some money for sure, T. I don't know how much because not a lot of people I've come across on the interwebs are speaking of him for this race. But he's going to take some money from people just based on the Pletcher/Velasquez combination and the fact that he was a Belmont winner. The morning line odds listed for him seem like a pretty fair prediction to me, but who knows really.
I wouldn't hold Tapwrit's last race here at this distance against him too much, T. You know, you were there. That's the day it pissed down heavy just before the race, which saw a long delay. Horses like Tapwrit, who are big, long and low striding types, are at a disadvantage in the slop usually just because their leg extensions make them more prone to slipping and things like that. It's usually the more athletic short striding horses or horses who are more upright (like turf runners) that are more effective under those sloppy conditions just because they tend to be lighter on their feet. There were also a couple of occasions in the Whitney (around the 1st turn then near the end of the backstretch) when Tapwrit was visibly upset about having the muck kicked in his face by Diversify, and backed away from it both times.
I'm giving him a pass for that last race and will be using him somewhat, although there's most definitely a case against him as well and I like that you're seeing things that make you hesitant to play him. Independent thinking, T. I love it. We have to make certain decisions for or against in any race, but especially in a 14 horse field because we obviously can't play them all.
I like your three horse plenty as well. In fact those are the three I'm counting on for myself because I think I found a way I can play some trifectas without having an overabundance of coverage. I'm thinking I'll win bet Rally Cry because of the value I think he represents, and then use the other two horses as keys in exotics. Seeking the Soul should run a good race and I would say he is the most likely horse in the field to at least finish top 3. Yoshida is also a very strong contender to at least hit the board, and with the positive pace patterns to his credit (which aren't factored into any numbers I did), I'm expecting him to run a strong race as well. I'm thinking I'll be keying both of those horses to finish top 3 in the trifecta, and then mix in a few other horses to round out the other spot that's open. I should be able to limit it to less than 20 combinations that way, and with the potential being there to hit a big trifecta if Rally Cry does run a huge race today. What do you think?