UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

[Stunna77]

Herrig is mainly a grinder in all of the bouts after PVZ, so...

You clearly didn't watch her last two fights lol. She boxed Casey and KK in large spurts. KK actually is the one who needed to clinch to win as Herrig was getting the better of the exchanges..

 

[mkess101]

Anyone like OSP here?

Before seeing Reyes get Cannonier out of there so quickly I'd have said yes. But man Reyes just has that fluid, sneaky power. And OSP is just too hittable.

Don't get me wrong no way would I knock a play on OSP at these odds. I just am not gonna doubt Reyes finishing ability until he gives me a reason to.

 

[Gugabe]

Sergio Pettis tko/ko +1050, dude's hands are looking better every fight, put Joe B on his ass twice in the first round IIRC? Formiga's striking isn't any good, and if Sergio stuffs his shots, he could get tired/reckless and get caught.

Joe looked old in that one, and Pettis' reluctance to open up on a tired, hurt JoeB kind of makes me reluctant. He should have been able to keep the pressure on and take him out down the stretch, but instead he just kind of stopped doing anything and edged a split that could have been a dominant dec or KO due to his own hesitation.

 

[Orion]

Good read here from the opponents of Conor/Khabib: http://www.espn.com/mma/story/_/id/24870300/ufc-229-fight-conor-mcgregor-khabib-nurmagomedov


Eddie touched on the factors (mainly speed) that I think will lead to Khabib getting lit up

He likes to punch on punches. Whenever you punch as a fighter, you're not bracing to absorb a punch. A lot of really good knockouts, not just in MMA but in boxing as well, come when a fighter punches on his opponent's punch. When I'm attacking, it means I'm thinking about hurting a guy. I'm not bracing for a shot. He punches on punches well.

And he has a unique, relaxed speed. It takes you a round or two to feel that. Khabib has the exact style to beat him, but when I think about the fight, he's not going to be able to take too many shots at a takedown because he's going to realize the speed of what's going on. I don't think Khabib is that fast. I think that's going to be a big factor in this fight: the speed difference. Comparably, Conor is much, much faster.

 

[mkess101]

Good read here from the opponents of Conor/Khabib: http://www.espn.com/mma/story/_/id/24870300/ufc-229-fight-conor-mcgregor-khabib-nurmagomedov


Eddie touched on the factors (mainly speed) that I think will lead to Khabib getting lit up

The first part of that is irrelevant for Khabib though. Any strikes he throws are gonna be for nothing more than a distraction to close distance. Eddie himself I'm sure throws punches to hurt guys and thus maybe wasn't expecting to get hurt so badly on the counters. Khabib is just going to be crowding Conor to drag him to the mat.

Speed could be a factor though, that much is true. More than that will be timing imo. Conor has brilliant timing, but it's going to have to almost be perfect because Khabib isn't going to stay at the range Conor needs for very long at all.

 

[Monster Meat]

for me in this mcgregor khabib fight i look at three things. 1 while dominant who has khabib really beaten? 2 he has gotten tagged in a few fights against much lesser strikers than conor and finally i really think this mental warfare that conor employs really gets into these guys heads. Usually khabib is calm and collected but during the press conferences he couldnt help but go back at connor when he was poked.

 

[mkess101]

for me in this mcgregor khabib fight i look at three things. 1 while dominant who has khabib really beaten? 2 he has gotten tagged in a few fights against much lesser strikers than conor and finally i really think this mental warfare that conor employs really gets into these guys heads. Usually khabib is calm and collected but during the press conferences he couldnt help but go back at connor when he was poked.

The closest comparison for a Khabib opponent to Conor is Barboza. I am not saying he's as good as Conor at all. But he is a damn good striker that has shown the ability to manage distance and do damage.

There is a reality in essentially any type of fighting, at any level and that is this: the clinch just isn't that difficult a position to get into if you want to. Now, obviously what happens from there can vary greatly, but it's a very real and simple matter of margin of error when you look at it. Throwing a strike that lands cleanly and does the requisite amount of damage to dissuade the other guy from getting close enough to clinch is EXTREMELY difficult. Just think about how many fights, from regional scrubs to the highest level guys, end up (at least for a short time) with them clinching on the cage. And the energy and focus it takes to avoid that spot at all costs then also takes away from that fighter's ability to mount effective offense. Generally getting stuck in the clinch for a short time isn't a big deal, even for a guy like Conor who wants space and distance to be able to operate. But vs Khabib is a TOTALLY different scenario. Because...

If he gets you pressed against the cage he is getting you to the mat. His ability to go from single leg to waist lock to whatever spot gives him the needed leverage is pretty much unstoppable, at least until he tires out some. If Khabib can get to the clinch against the cage, he WILL take Conor down. And once on the mat the hell begins. Conor just isn't good enough off his back to avoid damage or get back to his feet. At least early on when Khabib has energy. I will say this though: people only remember the beating Barboza took from Khabib. They forget that Khabib got VERY tired in rd 3 of that fight. To the point where even a completely beaten down and exhausted Barboza was able to get back to his feet and spend the last minute of rd 3 standing and throwing desperation strikes trying to get the late KO. So IF Conor can survive the first 10-15 minutes of hell on the mat, there could be an opportunity for him late in the fight. Khabib's style breaks his opponents yes, but it also takes a TON of energy from him.

This was long enough so I'll stop, but hopefully some things to consider.

 

[matthew55]

I don't think Conor fights Nate till towards the end of his career, at least a couple more fights since it'll always be there and ppl will watch no matter what

Unibet has conor ML +175 in "my offers", also some interesting specials:

is the most takedowns and most ss bet mean those 2 added together? I'm guessing it can't be considering Conor could knock him out before Khabib is able to get his hands on him..??

 

[lifeisgood12345]

The closest comparison for a Khabib opponent to Conor is Barboza. I am not saying he's as good as Conor at all. But he is a damn good striker that has shown the ability to manage distance and do damage.

There is a reality in essentially any type of fighting, at any level and that is this: the clinch just isn't that difficult a position to get into if you want to. Now, obviously what happens from there can vary greatly, but it's a very real and simple matter of margin of error when you look at it. Throwing a strike that lands cleanly and does the requisite amount of damage to dissuade the other guy from getting close enough to clinch is EXTREMELY difficult. Just think about how many fights, from regional scrubs to the highest level guys, end up (at least for a short time) with them clinching on the cage. And the energy and focus it takes to avoid that spot at all costs then also takes away from that fighter's ability to mount effective offense. Generally getting stuck in the clinch for a short time isn't a big deal, even for a guy like Conor who wants space and distance to be able to operate. But vs Khabib is a TOTALLY different scenario. Because...

If he gets you pressed against the cage he is getting you to the mat. His ability to go from single leg to waist lock to whatever spot gives him the needed leverage is pretty much unstoppable, at least until he tires out some. If Khabib can get to the clinch against the cage, he WILL take Conor down. And once on the mat the hell begins. Conor just isn't good enough off his back to avoid damage or get back to his feet. At least early on when Khabib has energy. I will say this though: people only remember the beating Barboza took from Khabib. They forget that Khabib got VERY tired in rd 3 of that fight. To the point where even a completely beaten down and exhausted Barboza was able to get back to his feet and spend the last minute of rd 3 standing and throwing desperation strikes trying to get the late KO. So IF Conor can survive the first 10-15 minutes of hell on the mat, there could be an opportunity for him late in the fight. Khabib's style breaks his opponents yes, but it also takes a TON of energy from him.

This was long enough so I'll stop, but hopefully some things to consider.

One thing about Barboza is that he doesnt have boxing power so Khabib was able to relentlessly pressure without fear of counter striking since Barboza can’t kick while backpeddling.

This is a strategy he didnt employ vs Iaquinta or MJ, and I do not expect him to use it vs Conor. If he pressures like that it’s too risky that he will get slept

 

[Mcgregorian]

Anyone on Waterston, imo she keeps it on the feet, Herring won't take/hold her down enough to get home the w
Leaning towards Patrick and Laflare
Thoughts guys?

Herrig Vs Casey was possibly the worst fight ever in WMMA. Waterson is weak but will outstrike and i agree with others, she will be favoured by the judges. Waterson DEC for me...

 

[mkess101]

One thing about Barboza is that he doesnt have boxing power so Khabib was able to relentlessly pressure without fear of counter striking since Barboza can’t kick while backpeddling.

This is a strategy he didnt employ vs Iaquinta or MJ, and I do not expect him to use it vs Conor. If he pressures like that it’s too risky that he will get slept

Very true. He'll need to be more careful in how he chooses to close distance. But getting to the clinch in MMA still is just not that difficult, even against guys like Conor who have great footwork. I'd be stunned if Khabib isn't able to get it there.

 

[Roads55]

Mayweather never got to -200, but there was a huge pre-fight line movement. On a couple of Euro books (William Hill, Ladbrokes), Mayweather went from -450 to -350 right before the fight. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw a 20% move here too. There's been last minute McGregor action on every fight of his except for notably the Aldo fight.

A 100 pt movemnet is not likely at all. But 30 pts or so I can see. I also can see some last minute Khabib action since there are some bettors expecting a small bump for McGregor and looking for a small discount.

yep, I think on the exchange mayweather might actually of gotten to 1.5 for a small amount of time, or at least very close. but the circumstances were just so different to here and conor's other fights. conor being much bigger, mayweather being 40, combined with conor's giant hype, completely different sport, possibility of fuckery etc etc. as a whole that fight was a lot more speculative than this one with many more variables. a lot of people were put of from betting mayweather i think because most casuals simply don't understand there is value in lines where 1 guy is a big fav. the promotion played a big part in conor getting bet i think. I don't see why ppl are using this fight as a main example when there is a much bigger sample size of history to compare from the same sport.

the late money on conors fights hasn't always made the line move in his favor also. i think many ppl just assume it did every time. atm just from looking at how the line has behaved so far, I think it's more likely khabib shortens more before the fight than conor shortening. could be wrong ofc but as far as people saying khabib will be the dog for no other reason than "irish money" is simply idiotic at this point.

Yeah, Aldo, Diaz,Alvarez, Mayweather fights were much more hyped.Conor impression got overused

100% and that is 100% going to affect the amount of casuals who might bet conor. and on the other hand you have a much higher % of casuals wanting to bet khabib. the effect will be greatly nullified.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Yeah but at his price a rd 2 or even rd 3 KO makes him worth having in there. Gotta remember Conor is the dog so only (I think) $7800. If he scores around 90 pts at that salary you are good with it for sure. And if Conor wins, I'd say it's easily over 50% chance that it's in rd 1 right?

down to 12 fights already. if everyone treats the main event as 100% owned we down to basically 11 fights. double the number of entrys and the potential for ties is huge here. hard to imagine conor being under owned with extra casuls so no edge in being overweight conor certainly. fading the fight small is an angle im thinking of as the chance of him making enough pts may be overestimated. increase the chance of a scoop.

win in r3 currently 7% chance and i dont think he 12x here. certanly not 13x. sure he could if spends a rd knocking khabib around the cage but he could also knock him out cold, 1 punch and score 60. 2kd would still need him landing 60 strikes. catching him clean at the start of r2 he potentialy comes up short too. al iaquinta had only landed 10 sig strikes by the end of r3.

its a 10% chance i think is worth targeting and hopfully will be ignored. if i was all in would prob do 20% (his r1 odds) conor and 80% khabib. wasnt playing draftkings much back when conor fought last so im kinda just assuming he is going to be over owned but dont really know. much rather be overweight khabib


7800. 12x is 93.6 pts. 13x is 101.4

 

[Orion]

The closest comparison for a Khabib opponent to Conor is Barboza. I am not saying he's as good as Conor at all. But he is a damn good striker that has shown the ability to manage distance and do damage.

Unpopular opinion here but I actually think he's pretty mediocre. He's excellent with his legs but his footwork and boxing leaves a lot to be desired. Dariush piecing him up was all I needed to see to solidify that opinion. Also see his straight-back-baby-deer-on-ice footwork when being pressured.

I don't think we can compare any striker to Conor because none of Khabib's opponents have the hand speed and skills that Conor has along with his footwork. It's one thing to crowd Barboza when you're just trying to avoid large windups from kicks, but another to avoid straight shots down the pipe from a boxer that has excellent distance management, range, and timing.

One thing I agree on though is how difficult it is to avoid clinching. Every Conor fight outside of Aldo has ended up in the clinch at some point -- even Eddie got there.

edit: lifeisgood12345 basically said the same..didnt see his post until after

 

[Orion]

down to 12 fights already. if everyone treats the main event as 100% owned we down to basically 11 fights. double the number of entrys and the potential for ties is huge here. hard to imagine conor being under owned with extra casuls so no edge in being overweight conor certainly. fading the fight small is an angle im thinking of as the chance of him making enough pts may be overestimated. increase the chance of a scoop.

win in r3 currently 7% chance and i dont think he 12x here. certanly not 13x. sure he could if spends a rd knocking khabib around the cage but he could also knock him out cold, 1 punch and score 60. 2kd would still need him landing 60 strikes. catching him clean at the start of r2 he potentialy comes up short too. al iaquinta had only landed 10 sig strikes by the end of r3.

its a 10% chance i think is worth targeting and hopfully will be ignored. if i was all in would prob do 20% (his r1 odds) conor and 80% khabib. wasnt playing draftkings much back when conor fought last so im kinda just assuming he is going to be over owned but dont really know. much rather be overweight khabib


7800. 12x is 93.6 pts. 13x is 101.4

Do you guys discuss DK anywhere else? Tough to find some good discussion on theory and plays leading up to these events and I love me some DK

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I feel like Laflare DEC -104 is one of those lines that'll seem like a gift in retrospect.

 

[Sadistics]

I feel like Laflare DEC -104 is one of those lines that'll seem like a gift in retrospect.

Not much difference between that and his -135 ML

 

[P4p Islam]

It might be unpopular opinion, but i feel like conors striking skills are greatly overexaggerated. For many reasons too. One of the big reasons is that he has fought so many stationary strikers throughout his career. People point to the aldo fight as adding to the legend of conor.



Aldo came in chin high and got clipped clean with a power punch and got tkod. We get it. Conor has power. Nothing was learned from that fight.

 

[burge13]

It might be unpopular opinion, but i feel like conors striking skills are greatly overexaggerated. For many reasons too. One of the big reasons is that he has fought so many stationary strikers throughout his career. People point to the aldo fight as adding to the legend of conor.



Aldo came in chin high and got clipped clean with a power punch and got tkod. We get it. Conor has power. Nothing was learned from that fight.

I'm picking Khabib and with relative confidence BUT Khabib is prone to leaving his chin in the air also...

I genuinely can't believe how long the discussion has gone on this fight. Both very well known entities, we know it's Conor early or Khabib via wrestling. Why is it still being discussed like anyone is adding any new value to the topic anymore?

I think Volkov/Lewis (along with almost every other fight tbh) is more interesting than the main. People fixated on the most obvious stylistic fight of the last 12 months

 

[NorthernLights]

It might be unpopular opinion, but i feel like conors striking skills are greatly overexaggerated. For many reasons too.

Could you elaborate on this a little?