UFN 142 Dos Santos vs Tuivasa
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Yeah of course when they are traveling over seas, he was talking about Jacare/Weidman specifically so I was responding to that. Comforts of home can be both a plus and a minus, some fighters have said they need to get away from their family to be more focused, up to the individual. How to determine what differnce between what they eat also seems very individual, also some might bring already cooked meal preps etc
Elevation and timezone changes are huge though
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I think he knocked him down once, 1:50 left in the 1st round. With a counter left.
My biggest reason to decide to warn people betting huge money on JDS to win here, is that we've seen so little of Bam Bam. Young fighters can change a lot from fight to fight. For example - we've seen pretty much all that Blagoy can do. He has a lot of fights and many of them go the distance, so we have good assessment of him as a fighter. You watched Tai's fights and think this is all he's got? Maybe, maybe not. I am not eager to find out with my money.
I don't like to bet a fighter that has to fight his best fight to win. But I've bet some fighters like that, won't lie. Just it's not my favourite. Keep in mind Hunt makes some crazy money. And his contract doesn't include win bonus, as far as I know. He just get paid to show like 700k and for him it does not matter if he'll win or lose. He will fight with his arm cut off if they let him, he does not give a shit if he'll win. He gets paid the same either way.
Good luck, I wish you the best. Maybe I am wrong, it's not that I've bet on the winner every time. I've lost some nasty bets, 1000 bucks to Roy Nelson who lost to Lewis by split... I'm ashamed.
Mark is 1-4 in his last 5. Last 5 years he has only 3 wins - vs the ghost of Antonio Silva, 2 fights away from retirement Frank Mir and his best win is Derrick Lewis. I don't like to be that person who discourage everybody from their bets, but I think Big Pretty is at least a little better than Lewis. A little? It's your money, man. Do what you like.
Regardless of the price? What kind of bs is that....
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Few props I'm going to play when they come out :
Willis DEC
Martin RD2/RD3
JDS RD3/RD4 KO
Hirota KO
Reis SUB
Get outta here boi
Willis DEC
Martin RD2/RD3
JDS RD3/RD4 KO
Hirota KO
Reis SUB
They're props... the odds are going to be better than the ML no matter what - fractionally probably in the Reis SUB prop.
Get outta here boi
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2bet, I forgot something.
If I was you and really want to bet Hunt, I am gonna bet him, but want better price. He is in the +100 range now. Maybe props?
Generally don't like to bet HWs unless we are talking big odds. My reason is not that typical one you hear all the time "one punch can win a fight, they hit that hard". I've seen enough HW fights to make me believe this is bullshit (mostly) In this division the fight IQ is ridiculously low level. I love Oleynik, but tell me one other division (in the UFC) where you can consistently win via weird chokes? And it's not that you are debuting and nobody watched tape on you, you've known for this! Your nickname is "The Boa Constrictor"! And still win a bunch of fights choking people from guard. Come on, people! Hunt giving up his back standing up vs Alexey? What brain fart is that? Derrick Lewis, of all people was able to reach the top of the division and fight for the title, just because he did so little in his fights that could not possibly have opportunity to make something stupid. Just stay safe and wait for the other guy to make something dumb is legit strategy @ HW because they all make dumb things all the time. Say what you want, but he was deserving challenger. What does that say for heavyweights?
I expect even high level HW's to make dumb mistakes. This is normal here.
If I was you and really want to bet Hunt, I am gonna bet him, but want better price. He is in the +100 range now. Maybe props?
Generally don't like to bet HWs unless we are talking big odds. My reason is not that typical one you hear all the time "one punch can win a fight, they hit that hard". I've seen enough HW fights to make me believe this is bullshit (mostly) In this division the fight IQ is ridiculously low level. I love Oleynik, but tell me one other division (in the UFC) where you can consistently win via weird chokes? And it's not that you are debuting and nobody watched tape on you, you've known for this! Your nickname is "The Boa Constrictor"! And still win a bunch of fights choking people from guard. Come on, people! Hunt giving up his back standing up vs Alexey? What brain fart is that? Derrick Lewis, of all people was able to reach the top of the division and fight for the title, just because he did so little in his fights that could not possibly have opportunity to make something stupid. Just stay safe and wait for the other guy to make something dumb is legit strategy @ HW because they all make dumb things all the time. Say what you want, but he was deserving challenger. What does that say for heavyweights?
I expect even high level HW's to make dumb mistakes. This is normal here.
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I rewatched Tuivasas fights and I think his KO power is alot overrated... Cyril Asker eat his shots and was still standing. He coudlnt finish glass chin Arlovski either...
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Asker has a big head.
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Yeah. I dont see anything special in Tai.
And I like the guy. He is funny and all.. but he is not that good.
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Quick question for you betting vets, I'm trying to use 5Dimes for the first time and I'm trying to put in a parlay. It tells me to enter the amount to risk but doesn't tell me how much I'll win. If I enter the amount I want to risk and hit 'continue' it says money needs to be added first. I'd like to know my win price before I place anything tho. Tips would be great, thanks!
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Manually calculate it or use a parlay calculator
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Gotcha thanks brother
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I think Suman could win by KO or Sub. Yusuff got rocked by a punch from Luis Gomez, who was significantly smaller than him. He also got taken down a few times and showed very inexperience grappling skills. His ML is worth a stab, I really doubt he wins a decision but you never know. His ITD is +530, not that much better than his +450 ML. just checked, it's +500 now...
Parlay with Bareclos, Pedro, Damir pays -125.
Just watched Brute's fight on CS, what a great stoppage by Mark Smith, the second Birchler was out of it not intelligently defending himself he stopped it.
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If Willis goes in there and outboxes Hunt over 3 rounds, I'll eat crow.
If Willis goes in there and knocks out Hunt, I'll also eat crow.
If Willis goes in there and submits Hunt, I'll eat even more crow.
And if Willis constantly gets takedowns to ride out a decision, I 'll ... you know it.
If Hunt is healthy (no staph) I highly favor him.
I do not put any value on his Olynik fight (staph, fighting in Russia, Hunt being prone to submissions while Olynik being a submission wizard, and so on).
I love Hunt at dog's odds already, so I won't go for props. I would love to see him get one final walk off ko in the octagon, but he might just get a decision (maybe even a close one, who knows).
Willis is no knockout artist at all, and Hunt only ever got knocked out by the top of the top (Overeem, Miocic, Werdum, dos Santos).
Willis would actually be by far the worst guy that Hunt ever lost to, after McCorkle.
Charles Oliveira is the only other guy I would currently consider to be a submission wizard.
I appreciate your comments Kyle, and I am not saying Hunt is a lock. In the end he might slip out and knock himself out, who knows lol.
What I will say though is that whoever is betting Willis as a favourite in this fight is a madman.
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Dont bet Barcelos, his opponent Has a chance to win The fight + odds sucks too
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what makes you think Gutierrez can win? Very limited footage on him.
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Just put 10u (10% of my bankroll; am I doing this right) at +100 on Hunt.
Hunt is no good anymore but his opponent is a bum who has absolutely nothing for him and is untested against legit competition.
IMO Hunt uppercuts him into a walk away KO.
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Damn, are you guys seeing the same Hunt as me? He looked slower than ever vs Olenik and even got put on his ass by him. When Olenik is putting you on your ass with a punch, I think a huge bet is definitely not something I would be doing.
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Agree
@GrantSorenson what is your take on the main event? I am back and forth. Guys here have legit arguments against Bam Bam. I think I have some poitns in his favour. I don't know... Is it really another slow fight where Cigano outpoints slow but hard to knock out opponent?
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