UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Gugabe, I hope you don't lose a ton of money betting against Ortega in his title fight because you talk very confidently... Clearly you don't like the guy's fighting style. I was with you all the way and lost god knows how much on Moicano to take him to school and I ended up crying like a bitch. No more underestimating that fucker. Rewatch that Edgar fight without bias and come to me again. Thanks.

I'm out for an hour and I'll be back then. :)
I'm going to happily continue to fade him, personally. It's like saying you can't bet against Lewis since he fluked out a series of fights. A 6 fight career isn't enough to say that Ortega has completely revolutionized the game. It's possible he's just a fairly lucky retard who's been edging out wins.
 
It's like saying you can't bet against Lewis since he fluked out a series of fights

Yeah, dude, go bet against Lewis, very smart - he is the underdog in so many of these or it's a pick 'em. I understand fading him on a good +odds. How many times his opponent was decent underdog? Once - Hunt. Vs every single other opponent, but Hunt, you got picke 'em or favourite odds to fade Lewis and you'll get fucked in almost all of these becase the only recent fight you could won fading him was v DC and it was not worth it.

Yeah, he fights like he don't know what to do, but he wins. If you don't understand how a fighter's game work, you just don't mess with betting on or against him/her. You don't fade somebody just because you think he gets lucky every time. Fade a fighter vs the right opponent for the right price. Don't just fade them blindly until they eventually lose. They can lose when it's -500 to bet against them. Do you have that much cash to put on a bet? No.

Holloway is barely the favourite, but could get a lot more expensive if he shows good spirits and looks healthy in the media days before the fight. Everybody will forget about his problems and will bet on him. Odds could go down to -200 or even lower. Paying the juice to fade Ortega? OK, it's your money.

Only time it's good to fade a fighter blindly is if he or she is consistently huge favourite and is some hyped fighter with no real skill but very flashy (so is beatable). We are talking if the opponents are in the +400 range every time. It's cheap to put little something and eventually you'll win. Just you gotta hope you'll get good odds every time to fade them. I know guys that were putting money against Ngannou in his every UFC fight until he eventually lost. It's not the best strategy but it's something.
 
For anyone who’s assuming Halloway isn’t healthy what gives you that idea? He’s had more than enough time off and in his most recent interviews he seems fine and more than ready to go. From what I read his issues seemed to not have any relation with his weight cut. I just wonder if people are betting Ortega just bc they think max isn’t 100 percent.
 
For anyone who’s assuming Halloway isn’t healthy what gives you that idea? He’s had more than enough time off and in his most recent interviews he seems fine and more than ready to go. From what I read his issues seemed to not have any relation with his weight cut. I just wonder if people are betting Ortega just bc they think max isn’t 100 percent.
I was planning on betting Max in their first fight. Yeah he's seemed good in every interview I heard with him, but it's still a slight worry to me. I'm gonna go with Ortega now, not only because of Max issues, but Ortega has had much more time to improve while Max probably been out of training a lot this year. Broken foot so out for that, that horrible cut against Khabib, depression, he wasn't training for at least a month after UFC 226. Will come in with ring rust, he's never had a year off before, and he's a slow starter as it is.
I also think Ortega has more room to improve overall, feels like he's less of a finished product than Max is.
 
OK, lets do this!

My initial thoughts WITHOUT freshly watched tape of both fighters of each bouts. I'm going to share my gold (sarcasm) with you, lovely lads.

Holloway v Orgeta screams PASS to me. Just from a betting perspective I would like to bet Ortega (IF he was bigger dog), dude is insanely durable and he is in the fight until the final horn. You bet against him you pray every God you can think of and cross your fingers every god damn second is passed he won't do something absolutely unexpected and amazing to finish the fight and take your money away, because you didn't saw the same exact thing happening time after time before and still was dumb enough to bet against him.

Valentina is gonna make light work out of Jedrzejczyk yet again. Reasons:
Too big, too fast, too strong. Shevchenko is going to throw her around like a kid in the clinch. Her core strength is insane, man. To have that control of opponents in the clinch and even @135, you gotta be VERY strong. Core strength is directly connected to punching power and to the ability to punch and kick a lot without tiring yourself out too easily.
Valentina backers worring she might lose close decision?
-> She is not losing a close decision, no way. She is absolutely gonna win with a wide decision at the minimum. She was much more active in her first fight @ 125 vs that brasilian bum. She is much more athletic than Joanna. I love Jedrzejczyk, but she is outgunned here big time. I know Val was in close decisions more than once @ 135, but she was not cutting hardly any weight there, walking around 137? Especially in her first 2-3 fights in UFC she was very small, I noticed her putting some good size when she fought Pena and Nunes in the rematch but still was smaller.

She won't let the judges rob her of another win, I'm telling you. She is gonna be active and she will score a lot. Not with her striking but mainly in the clinch. Joanna have no hopes in the clinch with her, just too underpowered. The only thing I can think of Joanna possibly doing to better her chances is to change her style enterely. She has to use a lot, a lot of kicks and frustrating in and out movements and long weapons like the jab, a ton of feints too. She need to be way out of clinch range and never come close. 25 mins to never let Val grab her in a collar tie is so unlikely that it's insane. This whole thing about the style change is in the realm of dreams. It's never going to happen. Even if it happens, she still has negligible chances of actually winning like that. Jerdzejczyk is too slow to go in and out, her thing is cardio, she is not dynamic type of fighter - too slow footed.

Gunnar Nelson is going to submit Cowboycerroliveira :D They are small chances brasilian cowboy finds his chin, but would not bet on that. Nelson is more dynamic Cerrone with even more potent grappling and better wrestling. And did you saw how he looks now? God damn.

I have mixed feelings about Jimi Manuwa. I like him as an underdog a lot. The odds on that fight were out for long time and I was mildly shocked he is the underdog. But I don't know about him... Just too lackadaisical sometimes. But he is bigger and equal if not better athlete than Santos. He has serviceable wrestling, can take Santos at will I think. I don't know about that fight, have to watch tape to refresh my memories. But picking Jimi for sure, I don't know about betting him, tho.

Eryk Anders v Elias Theodorou. I don't know how anybody can pick Anders here. Let alone bet him! But have to say - I am not good at picking his fights... As usual when newcommer debuting I didn't watch much on his local scene or didn't put any weight in his wins there. So I picked and bet on Natal. Well, bad for me. But didn't learn my lesson, bet on him next 2 times v Maluko (nice) and lost fuck ton of money v Machida. When he lost to Machida I had finally pretty good idea what he is capable of and what type of opponent he can beat. Was shocked he was so big favourite vs that scary faced guy and the fight was pretty much what I expected. Was absolutely no surprised he lost to Santos and was not surprised in the method that this happen.
Pretty boy Theodorou made Tavares work for his win. He is a winner, I can't say it better, he just finds a way to win. Boring, ugly ass fighting style but he is a winner. His hands are trash, but Eryk is not Mayweather either. Eryk just can't strike, his posture is weird, don't have good footwork, he gets tired if he is forced to do more than he likes. And he usually do very little. 3 rounds of kicks and some wrestling from Theodorou is going to be suffcient enough to win. He has wins over people a lot better than Eryk.
Sorry, Elias haters.

Devin Clark is going to get absolutely smashed by Rakic. I like all of Rakic's game he is my boy @LHW, him with Dom Reyes are the best young prospects of this division IMO.

If you think schevchenko is going to bully Joanna around in the clinch you should go back and watch her fights with Andrade and Karolina.

If you think Joanna isn’t going to be able to deal with schevs strength watch the Andrade fight

You sound like you cap schev at -500 or better. I guess you are laying serious coin on her at -300
 
Never saw Ortega close to getting Tkoed/submitted....seems like Holloway's only path to victory is decision. And in 5 rounds, how can we not reasonably say Ortega will have his opportunities to either hurt Holloway (power advantage) or submit Holloway. We have evidence that Ortega has knocked out and submitted his opponents and all it took was ONE slip-up (Moicano, Edgar, Swanson). Holloway, despite his crazy win streak and striking advantages, has been shown to GIVE his opponents those opportunities, due to his recklessness or his general style of using volume to overwhelm opponents. None of them however were able to capitalize. I feel like Ortega will be that guy who capitalizes....because as I mentioned previously, he has SHOWN us this trait MULTIPLE times.
 
I see many more paths to victory for Ortega than Holloway. I also think Ortega has a higher achievement ceiling, he's just a better physical athlete & has shown tons of growth. Ortega has rapidly improved his stand-up game, & he already has an absolutely stellar next-level ground-game. I think it's insane to bet against Ortega & people on here will regret it.
 
I see many more paths to victory for Ortega than Holloway. I also think Ortega has a higher achievement ceiling, he's just a better physical athlete & has shown tons of growth. Ortega has rapidly improved his stand-up game, & he already has an absolutely stellar next-level ground-game. I think it's insane to bet against Ortega & people on here will regret it.

This is the first time Im actually flabbergasted at the amount of people discrediting Ortega and his chances. Legit 50/50 fight imo
 
I can't believe people think Ortega is on Max's level. Max is going to land like 10x as many strikes, not get taken down, and has an iron chin. Maybe Ortega pulls another finish out of his ass but it's clearly <<< 50% proposition.
 
On Manuwa at +140 and Max Blessed Holloway at -130.

Obviously i'm worried about the headkicks of Santos but I think Jimi is the superior boxer and he hits hard as fuuuuck. I'm still haunted by the look on OSPs face when he got slept.

I couldn't be happier with the price on Max. I dont care if hes brain damaged, I think his footwork, volume, cardio, and pressure plus his tdd and hand fighting are miles ahead of Ortegas enough to win him a 50-45 decision.
 
I'm going be on Max and JJ. No idea on the rest so far.
 
That’s how I see it, I can’t see a path for JJ. Valentina fought a near draw against Nunes and Nunes starches everyone not named Cyborg.
Think Nunes might even be a good play against cyborg. Cyborg hasn't been impressive lately. But yeah I know it was awhile ago and know/mt≠mma, but I just don't see where jj skill set in a kb/mt fight is much different in a UFC fight. The extra dimension in mma is negligeble for jj,where I think if val could put her on the mat and own her if she isn't winning stand up. I watched some of the old footage of their matches and val was putting her down a lot in the clinch. With that being said it did look like it was more of a highlight video for shev so would like to find the full match.
 
If you think schevchenko is going to bully Joanna around in the clinch you should go back and watch her fights with Andrade and Karolina.

If you think Joanna isn’t going to be able to deal with schevs strength watch the Andrade fight

You sound like you cap schev at -500 or better. I guess you are laying serious coin on her at -300
The question I have is how much did the losses to Rose take out of JJ? Yes she beat Tecia but that doesn't mean that the old JJ is back and she will go on another huge winning streak. I might make a small play on her but JJ is the underdog here and rightly so.
 
I think Holloway is a vulnerable champion right now, he's coming back from these concussion issues and he's fighting an undefeated guy that finishes everyone. Ortega arguably has the most dangerous sub game in MMA and 25 minutes is plenty of time for him to catch you.

Ortega, for what ever reason is constantly underestimated, he's been the underdog in his last 4 fights. I have good reasons to doubt Holloway, I have no reasons to doubt Ortega. Every time Ortega has stepped in there he's come out the winner

Ortega has more ways to win this fight, he looks better every time you see him, he's dangerous everywhere
 
The question I have is how much did the losses to Rose take out of JJ? Yes she beat Tecia but that doesn't mean that the old JJ is back and she will go on another huge winning streak. I might make a small play on her but JJ is the underdog here and rightly so.
They made her better. She had much better weight cuts for her last two fights.

The old jj doesn’t need to come back and she doesn’t need to go on a big streak. She just needs to beat schevchenko and cash my +275 tickets.
 
Think Nunes might even be a good play against cyborg. Cyborg hasn't been impressive lately. But yeah I know it was awhile ago and know/mt≠mma, but I just don't see where jj skill set in a kb/mt fight is much different in a UFC fight. The extra dimension in mma is negligeble for jj,where I think if val could put her on the mat and own her if she isn't winning stand up. I watched some of the old footage of their matches and val was putting her down a lot in the clinch. With that being said it did look like it was more of a highlight video for shev so would like to find the full match.
What is a 10plus year old muai Thai fight going to tell you?

Joanna said she had been training for 2 years when they fought. Schevchenko has apparently been doing it most of her life

I don’t know how anyone can place much stock on 3 Thai fights from over a decade ago

And now schevchenko is apparently a grappling specialist and can just dominate Joanna in the clinch and on the ground

Apparently She has superhuman strength as well. Much stronger than Andrade

Crazy
 
What is a 10plus year old muai Thai fight going to tell you?

Joanna said she had been training for 2 years when they fought. Schevchenko has apparently been doing it most of her life

I don’t know how anyone can place much stock on 3 Thai fights from over a decade ago

And now schevchenko is apparently a grappling specialist and can just dominate Joanna in the clinch and on the ground

Apparently She has superhuman strength as well. Much stronger than Andrade

Crazy
Just because they were old doesn't make them meaningless. Sure maybe some people are putting more meaning behind them than deserved, but you don't think shev improved in that time either? Has jj improved that much more than her? I just don't see it. And I'm not at all saying that shev is a grappling wizard, just that I have seen her at least add that dimension in when necessary. Jj hasn't
 
I'd give Lamas a decent chance at beating Ortega since he'd be able to tee freely off on him with his power and Ortega'd absorb a ton of legkicks. Holloway's not hugely powerful, but he's a level of striking technique that's just tiers above anything Ortega's shown. Edgar was landing pretty easily on Ortega, clean for most of it. Not like Ortega was landing until the elbow.

I honestly believe Ortega isn't even top 10 by 2020. He's a stylistic abomination who's been barely scraping out wins and who'll likely go on a deep loss streak as soon as the magic stops coming.
Whole heartedly agree with all of this. Already have 3u on Max and will add unless he starts slurring his words while doing press next week.
 
Holloway is barely the favourite, but could get a lot more expensive if he shows good spirits and looks healthy in the media days before the fight. Everybody will forget about his problems and will bet on him. Odds could go down to -200 or even lower. Paying the juice to fade Ortega? OK, it's your money.
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I’d bet Max at -200 as long as he wasn’t showing signs of CTE.
 
No one is going to talk about the odds? been out for like an hour now
 
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