UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

[Captain Crunch28]

Where is max the underdog? In Vegas where I bet yesterday Max was -115 and Ortega was -105. After the weigh ins he might be a dog.

As far as talking about WMMA, the guys in this forum put their money where they think they will profit, regardless of who is in the main event.

Max is -105 and Ortega -125 on BM

 

[ViolenceFight]

You're such an amateur better it's just funny. You're analysis sucks, you just got beginners luck same as most and you let it go straight to your head. You'll disappear as soon as you go on your first loss streak and that'll be that. Betting isn't about saying this will happen or that will happen with 100% certainty its the probability of each outcome happening. If you are as confident as you claim to be in Ortega your whole bank roll would be on him cause if it WILL happen then what are you risking?

I bet for the fun of it & because I love watching MMA, that's it. I couldn't care less about what you think of me as a gambler or how i manage my bankroll. I'll be back after Sat & we'll see who was right.

 

[Captain Crunch28]

I also like some underdogs on this card including Anders and Burns maybe Lopez too.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Chook lost those fights cause her strikes were insignificant af.

And her opponents landed significant strikes, by contrast? Also, Chookagian didn't "lose" those fights, she won them.

Your own individual hatred of her and self-justifying scoring system doesn't change that. Sure, if there were 3 clones of Jordan3399 judging Chookagian-Eye this Saturday, then Eye should be a -500 favorite.

However, that's not the case.

You'd realise most media gave the Bethe fight to Eye and said Chook lost fights like her one with Aldana.

What's funny is that you cite the media for Chookagian versus Aldana (7 of whom had it for Chookagian, 10 for Aldana), yet conveniently ignore that same media when it comes to Chookagian versus Borella (10 for Chookagian, 1 draw, 3 for Borella).

Look, if you want to justify your own picks, fine. But at that point this ceases to be any kind of analysis. It just becomes blind, biased homerism and you may as well spend that time doing something else.

The fact Tate landed a big right hand early vs a much smaller fighter (pretty much the MMA wrestler standard) rather than using wrestling means little.

What?!

It means everything in this context, since it shows how poor Eye's defense and stand-up technique is to be badly hurt and dominated there by Tate of all fighters.

Also, "much smaller"?! In what universe? Eye and Tate are the same height, with roughly similar thickness and degree of muscle. Perhaps Tate was a little bit bigger, but no more.

There really isn't much point in going back and forth since you don't even address the actual skills and technique involved, and your interpretation of these fights is completely at odds with what actually occurred in them.

 

[Gugabe]

I bet for the fun of it & because I love watching MMA, that's it. I couldn't care less about what you think of me as a gambler or how i manage my bankroll. I'll be back after Sat & we'll see who was right.

In a week or two you'll be bitching about losing whatever winning streak you've got since some low-percentage, fluke outcome happens to a massive EV pick.

 

[ViolenceFight]

In a week or two you'll be bitching about losing whatever winning streak you've got since some low-percentage, fluke outcome happens to a massive EV pick.

In 2 days you’re gonna eat crow when Holloway gets beat. I’ll be back to rub it in.

 

[Jordan3399]

And her opponents landed significant strikes, by contrast? Also, Chookagian didn't "lose" those fights, she won them.

Your own individual hatred of her and self-justifying scoring system doesn't change that. Sure, if there were 3 clones of Jordan3399 judging Chookagian-Eye this Saturday, then Eye should be a -500 favorite.

However, that's not the case.



What's funny is that you cite the media for Chookagian versus Aldana (7 of whom had it for Chookagian, 10 for Aldana), yet conveniently ignore that same media when it comes to Chookagian versus Borella (10 for Chookagian, 1 draw, 3 for Borella).

Look, if you want to justify your own picks, fine. But at that point this ceases to be any kind of analysis. It just becomes blind, biased homerism and you may as well spend that time doing something else.



What?!

It means everything in this context, since it shows how poor Eye's defense and stand-up technique is to be badly hurt and dominated there by Tate of all fighters.

Also, "much smaller"?! In what universe? Eye and Tate are the same height, with roughly similar thickness and degree of muscle. Perhaps Tate was a little bit bigger, but no more.

There really isn't much point in going back and forth since you don't even address the actual skills and technique involved, and your interpretation of these fights is completely at odds with what actually occurred in them.

Ok then, so skillwise where is Chook that much better than Eye? Eye has the wrestling and likely the BJJ especially given if it goes to the ground she'll have top position. Then on the feet Chook will just do her usual act of constant feinting, movement, volume etc. But she can't land for shit. She just beats up air and judges give her rounds for it (See Round 1 vs Borella).

Borella just plodded forward and still was outstriking her Eye at least has footwork and decent enough boxing to close distance better. I'm not saying she's a great boxer but Chooks hands are so weak and inaccurate its not like she's the kinda fighter (like Tate is) to make her pay for her defensive errors.

I won't be surprised at all if Chook gets another boring decision like normal but given Eye's own skillset and Chooks blatant issues I don't see why anyone would favour Chook significantly at all. If the line flipped I might bet Chook Dec line but thats it, I'm making a value bet off the fact Eye is underrated based on her record and given that Chookagian is just plain bad and one dimensional.

 

[WetBlanket]

they hitting the scale when?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Talk is cheap. Write your bets down. Not much time left.

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-231-holloway-vs-ortega-bets.3874491/

 

[Broe.]

they hitting the scale when?

in half an hour

 

[Oblivian]

After Sunday when max loses, I’m gonna come back & ask you what happened. We’ll see who gets the F for their analysis. Good luck, your boy Holloway is now the underdog because people are starting to realize Ortega will probably take this.

Yes, the public is genius such as when they bet Glenn down to a favorite over Aguilar last weekend...

 

[ViolenceFight]

Yes, the public is genius such as when they bet Glenn down to a favorite over Aguilar last weekend...

Good luck tomorrow night, you & everyone else betting on the ghost of Max Holloway are gonna need it.

 

[raketmannen]

Good luck tomorrow night, you & everyone else betting on the ghost of Max Holloway are gonna need it.

Damn you're getting annoying, do you have to be aggressive against anyone who don't agree with you and act like an even fight as best is 100% certain in one direction? You don't have a crystal ball

 

[ViolenceFight]

Damn you're getting annoying, do you have to be aggressive against anyone who don't agree with you and act like an even fight as best is 100% certain in one direction? You don't have a crystal ball

I'm replying to people who are coming at me for picking Ortega. If it's annoying you, then maybe ignore it or go somewhere else?

 

[Omni1]

Am I really going to have to play Jéssica eye here? People going to bet chook up to -200? Really?

Going to ruin her decision prop before it even drops

I will play Jess for a unit if she approaches +175-200range. Probably be good value in her decision prop

Low level wmma. I’ll usually take the sizeable dog who is capable of tds.

Excellent rule of thumb. I do the same when it comes to womens MMA. However, I do have one exception. That one exception is Jessica Eye. Horrible fight IQ. Looks good for only seconds at a time. She is simply not capable of making good decisions in the moment. Chook is going to win a decision. I know it seems too easy but sometimes the obvious answer is the best answer.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm replying to people who are coming at me for picking Ortega. If it's annoying you, then maybe ignore it or go somewhere else?

Do you realize that he is actually an Ortega backer? When you are getting annoying to Ortega backers, it shows that your logic and reasoning is just obnoxious.

I don't give a shit if you are betting Ortega. We have people on opposite sides all of the time. I don't think anyone that is betting Ortega is an idiot or anything like that. I think your die hard attitude and speaking in absolutes makes you look like a fool.

 

[raketmannen]

I think your die hard attitude and speaking in absolutes makes you look like a fool.

This. People who act like only 1 outcome is possible are fools, especially when it comes to MMA. Can't take anything they say serious after statements that are so wrong.
Then comments like "the ghost of Holloway" "You're gonna need the luck", for fuck sake we can't know that yet. I'm very skeptical about his health but that dosen't mean he can't show up like he did in the Aldo fight, stop talking in absolutes.

Lets all pray that the weigh ins goes smoothly now, can't take any more heartbreak

 

[raketmannen]

I'm replying to people who are coming at me for picking Ortega. If it's annoying you, then maybe ignore it or go somewhere else?

No one is coming at you for picking Ortega, they are doing it because you act like that's the only viable outcome. You on the other hand are antagonizing people in the Official bet threads with comments like this "Damn, when Holloway loses all those are fucked."
Maybe some self reflection would be advisable for you

 

[Shoulder]

I added a unit on Holloway. He is good.

 

[Jordan3399]

I'm replying to people who are coming at me for picking Ortega. If it's annoying you, then maybe ignore it or go somewhere else?

You have 14U riding on Ortega thats some of the worst bank roll management I have seen on this forum in a long time. Easily the worst from someone as cocky as you.