UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

[ill800]

Max has never been the most articulate guy. Seems fine now. Obviously wasn't the case before their first fight. We are legit getting + odds on the GOAT FW because he isn't well spoken LOL

I won’t be mad at you for taking his -5.5 at +160 either.

If it goes five rds do you really think it’s going to be that close?

 

[Soccer Steve]

I’m heavy on Ortega & feeling really confident about it.

You don't say.........

 

[Soccer Steve]

@zeckdo You favour (bet) Cowboy, eh? Sorry if you explained earlier but 42 pages. What's your thinking?

edit: shit, @raketmannen too, didn't notice that earlier.

edit 2: ignore this. fuck my crisis of confidence. Ride or die.

 

[thewiggo]

I'm not only believing it because Bisping said it. I believe it because how Max looked that week, everyone reported he withdrew because of concussion like symptoms, their refusal to say what really happened, that he was affected by it for over a month, and them making bullshit hints that he might have got poisoned when he got to Vegas etc.
Max himself said he got very depressed AFTER 226, so why the quotation marks?
Stop simplifying what I'm saying and only focus on the least important things. And I said he has a legendary chin and has never got knocked out or even rocked in a fight. But no one has a legendary chin forever, especially when his fighting style is based on being able to take take his opponents best shots and walk through them. He's 26 years old but got a lot of fucking wear and tear on him.
Why don't you tell me what you think was the cause instead of rudely dismissing everything and ignoring the more significant "evidence" that it might be true?

edit. and oh didn't even read your full post. So you're another one who denies the fact that the Moicano fight was 19-19? The scorecards have been posted multiple times, maybe do some research before reapeating shit that has been proven wrong

Hey man listen I'm not trying to simplify your points. I'm just giving my opinion on this one - we're in the same boat trying to make a bit of money analysing something we love.
The truth is theres always going to be uncertainties as to why fighters behave the way they do, all sorts of extraneous variables come into play that can either be overlooked by ourselves and the media, or blown up to be more relevant than they actually are.
Max having a "legendary chin" has nothing to do with this matchup brotha. Apart from Ortega catching a fantastic snipe, he's not on the same tier as Max's striking proficiency.
Have you not seen the strike differentials between the pair?

Listen, scorecards are never 100% spot on - thats a God given certainty.
Personally I thought Moicano was winning the fight.

Ortega boutta be boxed up by Maxy baby. Hop on the Holloway train my boi.

 

[raketmannen]

He sure sniped the hell out of Edgar. And you didn't respond to a single thing I said, besides saying we can't be certain why fighters behave the way they do. Like faking a concussion or just acting like they have one? Whatever

 

[thewiggo]

I'm not only believing it because Bisping said it. I believe it because how Max looked that week, everyone reported he withdrew because of concussion like symptoms and we all saw them. Their refusal to say what really happened, that he was affected by it for over a month, and them making bullshit hints that he might have got poisoned when he got to Vegas etc. All of this points to that he got a concussion before, and how do you get concussed?
Max himself said he got very depressed AFTER 226, so why the quotation marks?
Stop simplifying what I'm saying and only focus on the least important things. And I said he has a legendary chin and has never got knocked out or even rocked in a fight. But no one has a legendary chin forever, especially when his fighting style is based on being able to take take his opponents best shots and walk through them. He's 26 years old but got a lot of fucking wear and tear on him.
Why don't you tell me what you think was the cause instead of rudely dismissing everything and ignoring the more significant "evidence" that it might be true?

edit. and oh didn't even read your full post. So you're another one who denies the fact that the Moicano fight was 19-19? The scorecards have been posted multiple times, maybe do some research before reapeating shit that has been proven wrong

I have no idea what was up with Max man.
All i know is Max isnt dumb, he isnt going to take a fight of this magnitude if he thinks whatever is wrong with him will squash his chance of winning.

 

[thesharktank]

He looks better than before, but definitely doesn’t look fine to me. If he’s just a little sluggish or slower because of his mystery illness, then most likely Ortega is taking the belt. Good luck if you’re gonna roll the dice on it. I’m heavy on Ortega & feeling really confident about it.

"Good luck if you're gonna roll the dice with it" ... proceeds to roll the dice hoping they come up the other way

 

[thewiggo]

He sure sniped the hell out of Edgar. And you didn't respond to a single thing I said, besides saying we can't be certain why fighters behave the way they do. Like faking a concussion or just acting like they have one? Whatever

Will see tomorrow anyways buddy.

 

[raketmannen]

All i know is Max isnt dumb, he isnt going to take a fight of this magnitude if he thinks whatever is wrong with him will squash his chance of winning.

Dude. His team had to trick him to get him to the ER telling him he had more media obligations because he refused to see a doctor before 226 because he was afraid of getting pulled from the fight. For sure he will take a fight just to get back in the cage regardless of his mental/health state, we know that for a fact. So you're completely wrong there.

Yeah, we will see tomorrow. I've expressed earlier that I think Max should be closer to -200 than -100, that I think he can finish Ortega if he's 100% (which he might be even if he was seriously concussed earlier) and able to outstrike him. I'm not hating or Max, I'm just against everyone ignoring the obvious red flags that's out there and making light of something that was a serious issue 4 months ago and even had people saying that he might never fight again (Dana, but he talks shit all the time so not taking that to seriously, but it was a crucial health issue during that week)

 

[Stunna77]

He looks better than before, but definitely doesn’t look fine to me. If he’s just a little sluggish or slower because of his mystery illness, then most likely Ortega is taking the belt. Good luck if you’re gonna roll the dice on it. I’m heavy on Ortega & feeling really confident about it.

Yikes, would feel much more confident "rolling the dice" on things I can see, like their actual fights, then trying to read into something we have very limited information on.

 

[kevinramsdell]

Holloway officially an underdog now on 5dimes. +105 Oretga at -125

 

[Stunna77]

I won’t be mad at you for taking his -5.5 at +160 either.

If it goes five rds do you really think it’s going to be that close?

I think that is a good bet, but I'm not getting greedy, ML is so good on its own.

 

[zeckdo]

@zeckdo You favour (bet) Cowboy, eh? Sorry if you explained earlier but 42 pages. What's your thinking?

edit: shit, @raketmannen too, didn't notice that earlier.

Cowboy goes balls to the wall from bell to bell. I think he will blitz Gunnar and test his chin within the first 90 seconds. Didn't like the way Nelson got clipped in the Ponz fight. Originally thought the eyepoke had a bigger effect, but Ponz just caught him clean. Gunnar's inactivity is a bit worrisome too, 2-2 in the past 3 years, compared to Cowboy who is 7-2 in same time period. Only thing I'm worried about Cowboy is how LaFlare controlled him on the ground. but Laflare is much better at position, while Nelson is better at submissions. reflecting back, stupid bet on Cowboy at -120, but +money is value. I think Cowboy finishes him in the 2nd after losing the first round.

 

[thewiggo]

Anyone else on Anders?

Theodorou does not have Machidas experience or strength of tehnique.

For Theodorou to win he needs to push back against Anders aggression otherwise he's going to be bullied for 3 rounds.

 

[ill800]

I think that is a good bet, but I'm not getting greedy, ML is so good on its own.

It is indeed greedy at only 50 points better

Most of my action is ml

 

[TrueAscension]

who da fuck are you? kyle has been a strong contributor despite his diarrhea of words lol. plz dawg, know your place peasant.

Howdy, I'm just a rando that had to read through a ton of pointless nonsense and got annoyed by it. How are you?

-Peasant

 

[Stunna77]

Anyone else on Anders?

Theodorou does not have Machidas experience or strength of tehnique.

For Theodorou to win he needs to push back against Anders aggression otherwise he's going to be bullied for 3 rounds.

Elias game doesn't work well against good athletes or guys with substantial power (see Thiago fight). I get playing Elias dec at good odds, but personally am on Anders NSC pretty heavy around -130 and smaller on his ML.

 

[Oblivian]

Anyone else on Anders?

Theodorou does not have Machidas experience or strength of tehnique.

For Theodorou to win he needs to push back against Anders aggression otherwise he's going to be bullied for 3 rounds.

I think Theo will be pretty active throughout. Either kicking or diving on the leg for takedowns. He chains between the fence and takedowns good to keep it active without separation. IMO, it's one of the tougher fights to bet. I do think it's highly likely to go to decision though.

 

[thewiggo]

Dude. His team had to trick him to get him to the ER telling him he had more media obligations because he refused to see a doctor before 226 because he was afraid of getting pulled from the fight. For sure he will take a figth just to get back in the cage regardless of his mental/health state, we know that for a fact. So you're completely wrong on that point
Yeah, we will see tomorrow. I've expressed earlier that I think Max should be closer to -200 than -100, that I think he can finish Ortega if he's 100% (which he might be even if he was seriously concussed earlier) and able to outstrike him. I'm not hating or Max, I'm just against everyone ignoring the obvious red flags that's out there

Fair enough, there are red flags, but I dont think theyre enough to encourage a bet on Ortega.
Just a final word, I think the technical gap in striking is going to be evident throughout the fight, and Max finishes him in a Aldo-esque way.

 

[TrueAscension]

I have no idea what was up with Max man.
All i know is Max isnt dumb, he isnt going to take a fight of this magnitude if he thinks whatever is wrong with him will squash his chance of winning.

Unless, you know, he got threatened to be stripped