I admit, I think the Max health concerns are WAY overblown. I am not putting much weight into it when capping this fight. I am assuming both fighters are coming in at peak form. In which case, I price Max at close to a -200. His current value at +100 or higher is therefore absurd. I have listened to many of his interviews this week and hes the same old Max. People pointing to his slurring or using the wrong words or stuttering or whatever they think they glean from this fight week must not know how Max normally handles himself in interviews. On the other hand, I was VERY concerned by his interviews pre UFC 226.
However, I did just watch his prefight workout:
He looked slow, especially with his kicks. This was a little bit worrying, so I went back and watched his open workouts prior to one of his best ever performances at UFC 212 against Aldo:
He looks even slower and less engaged in the 212 pre-workout. Worries gone. I'm not going to read the tea-leaves hoping that a disabled or hindered Holloway shows up to take Ortega as a favorite. If you cap Ortega as a favorite regardless of circumstance because of his chin/power/grappling or whatever you see leading him to victory, good on you and happy bettings. If you are assuming you are betting agaisnt broken merchandise, you are going to be in for a big surprise because his interviews and open workout from this week do not give that theory any evidence.
