Ortega has KO power but I'm really liking the odds on Holloway. I think he'll be too slick on the feet and clearly outstrike Ortega.
I don't think Ortega will have the wrestling chops to take Holloway down so unless Max takes him down or Ortega pulls guard/flying submissions (certainly possible) I think a lot of this fight takes place on the feet and outside of his power, I don't think Brian has much for Hollofway there.
Max will throw at a significantly higher volume and despite Ortegas finishes, he's had trouble on the feet with lesser strikers. Guida was tagging him repeatedly and won the 1st round of their fight and arguably the 2nd. Swanson won the 1st round primarily through his work on the feet. He was losing on the feet to Brandao too and I think 2 rounds down to him.
Realistically, Holloway is levels above in terms of his striking in comparison to Guida and Brandao. Holloways footwork, his angles and his pure output is miles higher than both of those guys. Similarly, Holloway gets better as the fight goes on. His cardio is second to none so he really doesn't have to pace himself, he can come out and throw high volume and as the fight goes on, his output and pace increases.
If you're going to beat Max, realistically it's going to be in the first round or two before he has chance to get into his rhythm and drown you. Outside of the Edgar and De La Torre fights I think I'm correct in saying that Ortega has lost every 1st round in his UFC fights. I may be wrong, but I think in those UFC fights he's been losing or at best drawing until he's got the finish. I don't recall any where he's been a round or two up and then got the finish to cap off a dominant win, it's generally been come from behind.
He's got great killer instinct, specifically in his submission game but other than that I don't really see anywhere else he has a significant edge over Holloway.
If I was going to bet Ortega, I'd only really look at him ITD if the odds are decent. I think there's very little chance that he can win a decision against Holloway. I've not looked into the difference in odds between Ortega (now as a favourite!) and fight DNGTD, but if they're fairly similar I'd feel a lot more comfortable betting DNGTD if I wanted to back Ortega given it's most likely how he wins and it adds the cover of Holloway finishing Ortega which I think is certainly possible.
I could definitely have a bad read of this fight, but if it stays on the feet like I expect it to, Holloway should have a significant advantage in terms of skill and output. Ortega can certainly finish a fight but he gets hit a lot too and I expect Holloway to piece him up and win quite comfortably.
Like I said, could be a bad read but I don't understand the line at all and I'm looking at putting a big (for me) bet on Holloway moneyline as a slight underdog.