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I think I'm going to probably end up on the ITD line. Oliviera makes me a bit nervous sometimes on his takedowns, and Miller can hit a guillotine.
UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II
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I think I'm going to probably end up on the ITD line. Oliviera makes me a bit nervous sometimes on his takedowns, and Miller can hit a guillotine.
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You were never close to winning lmfao one judge was just completely incompetent almost all media had it 30-27 for Dawodu plus 2 judges.
I'm all for fading a guy like Dawodu but not with a guy who clearly can't reliably exploit those holes in his game. Not a terrible finisher and all around unskilled fighter like Bochniak who should of been cut long ago.
Your numbers are off. -310 implies over 75%. Plus, you have to factor in the juice on the other side so if you contemplating a dog play, you have to take the actual odds on the dog instead of just substracting the implied probability of the favorite winning from 100%.
So in this case where Lee is -310 and Iaquinta is +255, the actual percentages you are looking at when considering a play are 75.61% and 28.17%.
should have*
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thanks for the tips!
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Just saw some tapes of Jim Miller and Oliveira. This is easily Oliveira's win. I see Oliveira finishing Miller in so many different ways. Oliveira is taller than Miller so I feel that Miller may get KOed or lose on decision.
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I Think like 90% Of olive oils wins are by sub
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I'd be shocked if this goes to decision.
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75% chance for Lee to win? I agree he should be the favorite but that seems a bit much....
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Yeah I think that's right. 45% lee by sub, 10% lee by dec, 40% al by tko, 5% al by dec
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yup but that's what the -310 implies. While the numbers seem pretty far fetched, at the same time, empirically, fighters with -300~-400 have overperformed 3% from their theoretical percentage. So Lee is actually closer to 78% of winning.
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Its going to be amazing when you ignore everyone. Maybe then you can get a thread all to yourself where you post novella after novella and respond to yourself about your horrible betting styles and absurd parlays. We can call it "HOW TO MAKE MONEY FADING KYLE" and just let you go on a rampage
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Miller kneebared Do Bronx 8 years ago, almost to the exact date. How is he the overwhelming underdog? Does't make any sense to me.
This card reminds me of UFC 209, where I was very confident that Teymur is going to beat Lando and was thinking that Kelly is super overlooked by the bookies v old Rashad. Two HUGE underdogs with very very real chances. Didn't bet something big on them because the odds were more than enough.
This card gives me same vibes. I know every card, or every other card there is one or two underdogs (the type of underdogs that should not been underdogs at all, not some miracle come from behind wins), but It's extremely hard to me to spot them.
Here I see 3 underdogs that realistically should be at the minimum at even odds, if not the favourites: Jim Miller, Joaquim Silva, Al Iaquinta. Maybe there is more, but I see just these 3. Jim Miller is better standing up, has the wrestling to keep it there, and could defend from submissions if this goes to the ground. He just have to not be tired, if he is fresh I think he is OK no matter where the fight goes. Joakim Silva hits very hard and with volume, has excellent get ups, plenty cardio. Al Iaquinta has better striking, very good at defending TDs, can survive on the ground, if it goes past the 3rd he would have the edge in the cardio department. I have two worries for Al - first he is good boxer, but his pressure style leaves him with somewhat porouse defence, second, he likes to dive for leg locks and just gives away top position.
This card gives me same vibes. I know every card, or every other card there is one or two underdogs (the type of underdogs that should not been underdogs at all, not some miracle come from behind wins), but It's extremely hard to me to spot them.
Here I see 3 underdogs that realistically should be at the minimum at even odds, if not the favourites: Jim Miller, Joaquim Silva, Al Iaquinta. Maybe there is more, but I see just these 3. Jim Miller is better standing up, has the wrestling to keep it there, and could defend from submissions if this goes to the ground. He just have to not be tired, if he is fresh I think he is OK no matter where the fight goes. Joakim Silva hits very hard and with volume, has excellent get ups, plenty cardio. Al Iaquinta has better striking, very good at defending TDs, can survive on the ground, if it goes past the 3rd he would have the edge in the cardio department. I have two worries for Al - first he is good boxer, but his pressure style leaves him with somewhat porouse defence, second, he likes to dive for leg locks and just gives away top position.
Al likes to dive for leg locks? What fight did he do that in? I must refresh my memory because I can't recall it.Miller kneebared Do Bronx 8 years ago, almost to the exact date. How is he the overwhelming underdog? Does't make any sense to me.
This card reminds me of UFC 209, where I was very confident that Teymur is going to beat Lando and was thinking that Kelly is super overlooked by the bookies v old Rashad. Two HUGE underdogs with very very real chances. Didn't bet something big on them because the odds were more than enough.
This card gives me same vibes. I know every card, or every other card there is one or two underdogs (the type of underdogs that should not been underdogs at all, not some miracle come from behind wins), but It's extremely hard to me to spot them.
Here I see 3 underdogs that realistically should be at the minimum at even odds, if not the favourites: Jim Miller, Joaquim Silva, Al Iaquinta. Maybe there is more, but I see just these 3. Jim Miller is better standing up, has the wrestling to keep it there, and could defend from submissions if this goes to the ground. He just have to not be tired, if he is fresh I think he is OK no matter where the fight goes. Joakim Silva hits very hard and with volume, has excellent get ups, plenty cardio. Al Iaquinta has better striking, very good at defending TDs, can survive on the ground, if it goes past the 3rd he would have the edge in the cardio department. I have two worries for Al - first he is good boxer, but his pressure style leaves him with somewhat porouse defence, second, he likes to dive for leg locks and just gives away top position.
Agreed, and if anything, Font is more likely to mix in takedowns than Sergio.
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It's going to be even more amazing if you ignore me. But you would not, don't you. You just want to see what I write and comment on it, rather than do something actually useful.
My little friend, individuals like you or Oblivian or the other guy, are not all what this thread is. There is much more good apples than bad. So I am fine if I have to ignore 20-30% of the thread. I don't care. Even If I have to ignore 99% it does not matter to me one bit. I have my rules and I follow them. Why not ignore shittalker? So when he writes bad for me I have to restrain myself to write back and write stupid shit like this in the thread instead opinions on the fights.
You are in the ignore list now. Suggest you put me in your list, too. So you don't have to read my long messages filled with nonsence.
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no thanks you are literally an atm machine by fading.
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Life on the ignore Kyle train is great. Join me brothers.
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