Warning:
I can understand your enthusiasm to play Aldo @+money, but this is a trap fight IMO. Aldo is losing his legs
fast. He is just
not nearly as mobile as he was before, it's obvious.
And he tires from 2-3 bursts of energy. He just doesn't have it anymore. Jeremy Stephens was dangerously close to knock him out. If he survived the round who knows if Aldo would've have the power in the next to do anything dangerous, or even to defend himself. Moicano is young and determined to prove himself at 145 as the next big thing. I saw him totally different v Ortega than he was v Stephens, he thought to himself that he will show this bjj kid how to strike and totally underestimated him IMO. There is no other explanation. I bet a ton of money on him to beat Ortega and the first 10 seconds I was shitting bricks -
he wasn't fighting anything like he did v Stephens, and I was counting on that safety first approach,
Ortega is hitting too hard and is too big of an opportunist to get in a firefight with him, no matter how better your technique you think you got. I think his next fights proved he learned his lesson and I expect him to show his best cards in this fight.
As far as a bet -
it's straight up pass to me. Moicano is likely gonna retire Aldo, but bookies have him as the favourite, I don't bet on favourites unless I am 110% sure they gonna win. Aldo has the experience edge, the faster hands and better boxing, he can still win it. Thus I won't have action on this fight. End.
UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs Moraes 2
February 2
I like Assuncao in a 5-rounder. He is the better fighter and more rounds should help him win more convincingly and not sweat over the decision. They both are virtually the same as the first fight, nobody made big improvements. Moraes is good with the placement of his big shots. If he can trick you and hit you with one of those it's either a knockout, or you can lose the whole round that you won up until that shot, because it looked that impressive. But other than his nasty kicks and knees, his game is not very tailored on round winning, so I favour Raphael.
Aldo and Moicano we talked about it.
UFC 234: Whittaker vs Gastelum
February 10
We all know Whittaker is gonna remain champ. I like Gastelum, but he is not athletic enough to challenge the champ. He is kinda fat (likes to take long vacations, famous for not training hard and sucks at dieting) and he tires if he has to put extra work.
And this is 5 rounds vs the best middleweight, you're gonna have to work extra hard to beat him. There is no other way, you can't knock him out, he is too tough - you are not a knock out artist, and your 1-2 with quick in and out movements is not gonna surprise him.
You have to have the full vocabulary of strikes and smart use of range and deception to do make something happen.
Whittaker is that good. What he is not good is defending the low kick, tho. Still remember Natal of all people making Whittaker limp. The Reaper leans heavy on his front foot, that is why Romero was able to damage his knee in their 1st fight.
Adesanya is gonna school Anderson. I don't know about a knockout. Anderson have bag of tricks to limit the damage he is taking, he is a vet in the game, and he is not that shopworn. And Adesanya is not exactly a heavy hitter. He is precise, tho. Adesanya backers, keep in mind Anderson knows a win here gives him titleshot, so he is going to try to win. Which on other side makes me think he opens himself to being knocked out if he do this... But something tells me Anderson is too old and experienced to go all out to win, he'll try to win, but if he sees that he can't he won't risk to be knocked out and will ride out a decision loss.
I like Montana De La Rosa a lot v Nadia Kassem. I have vague memories of Kassem, but from what I remember she is barely a UFC level fighter. Montana is bigger and more technical then her in all aspects of the fight IMO. Still I think I have to refresh my Kassem memories, though.
UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs Velasques
February 17
The money that will pour down Velasques' line will be insane. I think. Yeah, Ngannou dispatched the promising prospect Blaydes in their rematch, but public still remembers Stipe whooping that ass with ease. I think Velasques will go down here like in the first Fox event v JDS. The styles of these fighters match in such ways that favoures Francis. Velasques is workman type fighter, he is in yo face from the oppening bell.
This is exactly what Francis wants.
His whole style is counter puching. Velasqes didn't faced many counter-punchers. The only comparison to Francis is Kongo. Kongo retreated but was active off his back foot with heavy counters which stunned Cain on more than one occasion.
The difference is that Ngannou probably will look to separate with Cain after his stuns him, Congo's instincts to wresle were too strong to overcome and he went back to wrestling mode after every time he had any success with his counters which of course gave the Cain exactly the fight that he wanted.
Vick is better grappler and a striker. His wrestling not so much. My biggest fear is Felder choosing to wrestle Vick, like he went to this option when Cruickshank was beating his ass and managed to get a sub. But even that is a long shot I think because Vick is a lot more dangerous on the ground than Cruickshank, bigger with longer limbs and nasty submission game... On the feet Felder is not throwing in combination and doesn't have quick footwork to reach and hurt Vick. Single punches and angry faces won't do it. If he try to chase Vick and overextend himself he can be meet with a hard counter like Duffy.
Vick is bigger even than Chiesa, he is true welterweight making 155 limit on pure magic. He is tough, tough fight for everyone that can't take him out fast. And Felder's core style tells me he won't be able to.
UFC 235: Woodley vs Usman
March 5
I have a sneaking suspicion Tyron is going to be underdog as a champion again.
The public loves to lose money on his fights.
I have no doubts in my mind Woodley is going to beat Usman. I researched that potential fight in advance, being ready if Usman get to the titlefight. I watched a lot of tape, considered many angles and the only conclusion I came up with is Woodley is gonna beat him, and is pretty likely to be by submission. In UFC he (Tyron) fought guys he either knocked out fast, or who are far better grapplers than him or because of some other thing he could not use his finishing abilities on the ground. I watched Usman's fights from the moment he stepped into the octagon, he has some deficiencies on the ground,
he is good wrestler but not so good of a grappler. I can see club and sub situation like with Till. Worst case scenario for Woodley backers will be if this goes the distance.
Woodley typically is shaky on the scorecards, too much backing up and doing shit. He won 10 fights by decision and ONLY 3 were non controversial. He had many split decisions, also majority wins and draws.
You have to be very inexpirienced or be utter shit in one area of the fight for T.Wood to take a clean decision from you. That's why I am sure a lot of people will argue Usman bet, because they be sure he is not getting finished and if it goes to scorecards Woodley's inactivity is gonna cost him.
I don't think this goes to the scorecards at all.
Woodley turned a corner in his gameplaning, he knows himself well enough and he researches and even I think he spies on his opponents to gain an advantage (I'm kidding but I'm not). Whatever it takes, baby! Club and sub just like Till, first or second round submission for T.Wood.
Mickey Gall is better everywhere, except his wrestling, but he is more than fine fighting off his back. He won't use his BJJ to hunt for subs that he won't get, tho, he is a lot smarter than that bum White and will use his BJJ to stand up and just finish Sanchez on the feet. Easy work.
Holly Holm has a taylor made opponent for her style for the first time since Ronda Rousey. Aspen Ladd is better than Rousey in the striking department, but she is still very sloppy and relies on toughness and aggression. She doesn't have good technical wrestling game, but she is big and strong for the weightclass and she is aggressive which in women divisions can cover a lot of holes in your game. I don't think Holly is gonna win effortlessly or in an elegant fashion - she had one clean fight (maybe two - with the Marion fight?) and that was her most glorious win vs Ronda.
Even Bethe made her look bad, and if Holly didn't land that kick, she really could've lose that abomination of a fight, the rounds were close and uneventful.
PS
I won't be surprised if Holly founds out early that her "world class boxing" isn't cutting it even vs so low quality of striker like Ladd and opting to wrestle yet again, it's gonna be funny it that really happens