UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

Cerrnoe Needs a finish in round one or two, after that i see no hopes. But i think he got this, he wants to make a statement for his future fight with Conor and others.
Why do you see no hopes? Cerrone almost always gets better the later the fight goes and has better cardio than Hernandez. Getting a sub will be more difficult the later it goes as they get sweaty but on the other hand the later it goes the more likely a KO is as he gets Hernandez timing.
 
I can’t speak for anyone else but I have absolutely no intention of paying vig on almost all of the favorites. It’s not a good betting card. It’s just a ridiculously easy card to pick straight up winners on, which obviously the betting lines indicate
Cliiiiiiip return to the discord. CFB might be over, but you don't need to burn your profits playing favourites in the UFC.

Don't mind this. But those low hands of Alex and the 6'0" versus 5'9" and the bumrush start he likes to do, head kick KO could happen early.
True. I just think that a lot of a Hernandez win is either going to happen inside 3 mins, or just be very apparent that he's manhandling Cerrone and there's no value on him. Hernandez will probably win the first round so I should be able to pick up Cerrone @ +3/400 with some luck.
 
Damn.. I love a lot of dogs:
Edwards
Muhammad
Sandhagen
Cerrone
Glover

I think there is value in all of them.

BTW.. I see a little bit of discussion in Gillespie vs Medeiros. Playing devils advocate here... are you guys considering the size difference here? People claim Gregor is a small LW and Yancy has fought at 170 with some level of success.
I dont know if that is enough to close the big gap in skills but I think it should be noted.
 
I like Muhammad as a small underdog x 2.35. Neal looked quite good vs Camacho but Camacho is a very undersized lightweight with a severe reach disadvantage who is extremely hittable, so any decent striker would look great vs him. Neall has not faced any good competition yet and his gastank and his wrestling abilities remain questionmarks, he gassed after 1.5 rounds vs Kevin Holland. I also noticed he doesnt defend low kicks very well.

Muhammed on the other hand has proven to be very good vs rangy strikers, he beat Means, and Jordan Mein in his previous fights, so he seems very well suited to this style matchup. Muhammad is a pretty well rounded fighter who also has decent wrestling abilities. Muhammed should have the cardio and the wrestling edge, and Neall is just a little too unproven for my liking. I don't think Muhammad should be the underdog in this fight to be honest.
 
I think Hernandez is a horrible matchup for Cerrone, which sucks, because he is a huge tool in my opinion.

I also think Ostovich has a chance to box up Paige if the fight stays standing.
 
Gregor Gillespie seems like a fairly safe parlay piece

Medeiros stinks
 
Compared to UFC 231,Lima upset and UFC 232. This card seems way better. Also with Cory Sandbag as the underdog you never know if he might actual come out with a KO again.
lol KO'ing Lineker? have you seen him block Dillashaws elbows with his forehead on purpose? I dont think Sandhagen has the power to KO Lineker, I am not sure I have seen a chin as good as Linekers''. this fight could look a bit like the Lineker Dodson fight, but Dodson is faster and slicker if you ask me, I think a Font-lineker Kind of fight is more of what could be expected.
 
If Geoff Neal can stuff takedowns against Belal, he could piece him up on the feet.

Neal has good hands, amd Belal is very hittable.
 
Why do you see no hopes? Cerrone almost always gets better the later the fight goes and has better cardio than Hernandez. Getting a sub will be more difficult the later it goes as they get sweaty but on the other hand the later it goes the more likely a KO is as he gets Hernandez timing.

Hernandez's cardio held up fine against OAM in a very wrestle-heavy affair.
 
Muhammed on the other hand has proven to be very good vs rangy strikers, he beat Means and Jordan Mein in his previous fights, so he seems very well suited to this style matchup
Means' wheelhouse is the clinch actually. He can strike from distance if he has to, but it's not his thing. Muhammad beat him with simple jab. J.Mein crumbles if you are able to bully him. Plain and simple. It's not a win that I can say "Belal beat Mein, so he can beat a guy who's going to be in his face right from the bell, trying to knock his block off.

I don't see Belal's chances, unless he really sticks to a solid gameplan. I know he is smart man and probably has good gameplan for this contest, but I see him having to work hard for all his wins so far and for the most part they were v sub par competition. The only way I see him winning is if Geoff hits him so many times and doesn't get the KO and get tired. So a Bektic vs Elkins scenario... Belal is very good if he has you on the defence at all times, behind the black lines. If he is on that other side he is not nearly that good. Poor defensive responses, flinching, bad footwork... I see Neal's incredible handspeed, combined with little to no wind up on the punches and fast footwork giving Belal huge, huge problems. Neal is not a counter-puncher, he is not gonna wait, he is in your grill so Belal is going to be the hunted for a change. Since Luque fight, everybody that he fights is shying away from exchanges (except Means). This is not gonna be the case here. Neal is a very hard worker, he balances day job and MMA training, but he is disciplined and he really needs that win, so one more reason to trust him. Fortis MMA is not the best camp, but there are a lot worse places. They are doing relativeley well now.

Last: I've got a question, how many times Belal had to defuse a knock out artist in the UFC?
 
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Hernandez's cardio held up fine against OAM in a very wrestle-heavy affair.
Not saying its bad but it looked like it was taking its toll by the end he just pushed through. I didn't mention it as a big advantage for Cerrone but it is definitely something in his favour and show Hernandez won't be able to simply outwork him.
 
As much as I said how I thought Belal could be a good dog, Neal is a seriously tough fight. If nothing else we've seen Belals chin cracked before and betting on him is relying on him to go wrestling heavy (with success) and ideally cause Neal to slow down. I might do a small bet on Belal's ML but theres a lot of potential for him to get destroyed here and I wouldn't be that confident in Belal, a small bet at +150 seemed smart but not a big bet when he's closer to +120. The decision line will probably be the smart bet.
 
Hey, what is your betmma profile? Curious to see it. Always interresting to see people who take it very seriously. Gugabe is definitely a top notch bettor, he´s had some really good hits in 2018 like Cejudo pick, some other really good parlays and stuff. Would be neat to see another good betmma profile from here.
https://www.betmma.tips/MMAGE

My full results from last year +80u, 18% ROI
Should actually be +85u cause I did bet Yair but forgot to post.
My goal is always too get at least +100u a year and keep my ROI at least 20%, came a little short last year but that won't happen again.

Only bet ML because of unit size
 
I like the chances for Geoff Neal getting a KO win though. By the way whose vinicius castro? the UFC site has no info on that fighter whose going agaisnt menifield.
 
The decision line will probably be the smart bet.

Like C.Anderson last week (if you going to bet more on Anderson, hedge it with Latifi inside 1st), I think anybody willing to bet big on Neal should hedge it with Belal's decision (and I think I'm going to do that). This is, I think, Belal's only way to win. He has to survive rough first round and hope Neal slows down a lot for the 2nd and 3rd IMO.
 
Actually realy like Yancy as a big dog. Really tough guy, good TDD and get up game. His main weakness is being too hittable but I don't see why he won't comfortably outstrike and hurt Gillespie. Worst case I think Gillespie takes a decision, his only decent sub is the arm triangle which will be tough to pull off on Yancy and even if he locks it in Yancys skinny build will make it tough to finish a blackout before you tapout guy like Yancy with it.
Yance will lose, dont bet him. Get a dog with a real chance to win.
 
I like Te Edwards here. While I feel Bermudez is probably being underestimated due to his recent 'losses' going up in weight when he's not a huge featherweight and facing a guy like Edwards doesn't seem smart. Edwards is a bigger stronger guy with a solid wrestling base which will likely cancel out Bermudez own and leave him doing his normal volume striking to a decision tactic. Edwards doesn't have great defence hence Don Madge, a solid, rangey Muay Thai striker and proven finisher did so well but given Bermudez chin has seemed relatively weak in the past anyway and his lack of power striking I wouldn't be surprised if he KO'd Dennis early similar to what Lamas (finished by guillotine but dropped him with a jab hard before) or KZ did after stuffing the initial wrestling threat.

My main concerns would be Bermudez ability to avoid the KO early and drag Edwards into deepwaters as his the last fight was the longest of his career at just over 1 rounds. Equally though we've seen how effective Bermudez decision winning skills are on his recent run so it could be worse although you can argue the incompetence of the judges. Finally, there's the risk Bermudez is significantly different at 155. I'm pretty doubtful as he never seemed like a big featherweight and I really don't think this a smart decision with a frame like his. Regardless a noticeable power increase or ability to take a shot could be very beneficial in a match up like this.

Stylistically it just seems like Edwards is a fighter designed to beat Bermudez efficiently while Bermudez is the opposite of everything Don Madge did to beat Edwards in his debut. I'm normally all for favouring experienced guys but so far I've got a 1U on Edwards as the line should continue to shift in his favour slightly (the delay on UK sites has it's benefits) and I'll possibly add or change that once props come out.
Gotta agree with pretty much everything but I'm not picking Edwards.

I don't like the move to 155 for Bermudez, don't think he has the right frame for 155, too short. Suspect chin, 4 fight losing streak, 16-9 pro record, 32 years old, I think it's fair to say he's past his prime and his prime was never that good.

But I would also argue that Bermudez's last 3 losses were total coin flip fights, besides the Glenn fight which was kind of a robbery. Those losses could have been wins, Bermudez fought close and got unlucky with the judges. Had Bermudez won those fights yet performing the same, the line for this fight would be totally different, get what I'm saying?

Even with everything going against Bermudez, I just can't get over the massive edge in experience he has over Edwards. Edwards is 6-2 and his competition level isn't comparable to Bermudez's at all.

Yes Edwards has a solid wrestling background, KO power he's younger, he's bigger, athletic, 6" reach advantage, trains at the MMA Lab which is a great gym. Edwards seems like a real confident/cocky kind of fighter and he just got dominated in his last fight, I wonder how much did that damage his confidence and how it will affect this performance.

I have to favor Bermudez because besides punching power, Edwards hasn't shown me anything that makes me think he can win this fight. Could totally see Edwards KO'ing Bermudez but have a hard time seeing him win a fight that goes down the stretch. As you said Edwards has never won a fight outside of the 1st round. Also have to think this is do or die for Bermudez, backs against the wall, he needs this win, fighting at home.

You would not believe this but Bermudez has been a betting favorite over his last 15 opponents, the only fighter he wasn't favored over in the UFC was Diego Brandao in his UFC debut. Bermudez is the cheapest he's been in 15 fights and its against Te Edwards, crazy.
 
Vanzant vs Ostovich is dog or pass. Both are only fap fap material, fightwise they are awful.
Vanzant is definietly no parlay material.
 
Vanzant vs Ostovich is dog or pass. Both are only fap fap material, fightwise they are awful.
Vanzant is definietly no parlay material.
PVZ will beat Ostovich, I guarantee it.

Ostovich is a jobber, 500 fighter, trains at a bum gym, lost to low level competition and on top of that she enters this fight with a lot of personal problems.

PVZ is more athletic and skilled everywhere. She outstruck JRC with a broken arm and won the 3rd round. Look at PVZ losses, only to good fighters, not bums like Ostovich. PVZ is still a young improving fighter too, her best his to come.

I think PVZ wins her tune up fight and does so easily.
 
PVZ will beat Ostovich, I guarantee it.

Ostovich is a jobber, 500 fighter, trains at a bum gym, lost to low level competition and on top of that she enters this fight with a lot of personal problems.

PVZ is more athletic and skilled everywhere. She outstruck JRC with a broken arm and won the 3rd round. Look at PVZ losses, only to good fighters, not bums like Ostovich. PVZ is still a young improving fighter too, her best his to come.

I think PVZ wins her tune up fight and does so easily.
Maybe she will but I dont trust her, she trains at a bum gym too either.
Odds to shity to bet her single, and to much risk to parlay her but thats just my opinion.
I will parlay Lipski for sure.
 
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