UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

[GrantSorenson]

Today I tortured myself by watching the last 4 fights of Paige VanZant and the last 3 fights of Rachael Ostovich, two fighters I had blissfully never seen before.

My conclusion? They're both awful and have no business being in the UFC, let alone as the co-main of this card. Does that mean there isn't no opportunity to make money? Of course there is!

In the stand-up, which I anticipate there being long stretches of, which most (sane) people will use to grab a beer, Ostovich actually has the technical edge, as she can throw a competent jab (!!!) and her leg kicks are thrown more accurately than VanZant's attempts. Unfortunately, she has the reach of a midget, throws a strike at a time, and doesn't come forward, meaning VanZant's longer limbs, higher rate of activity, and genuinely good circling away from the power will be enough to win on the judge's cards.

Let's also not forget that Ostovich has a horrendous chin and is badly bothered by even the mildest contact, whereas VanZant, if nothing else, is tough and has plenty of heart, taking a beating against Rose Namajunas.

Now lets look at the grappling. Despite her much ballyhooed judo and wrestling background, Ostovich sucks at both, and her takedowns are laughable. On the flipside, VanZant has horrendous takedown defense. And yet, I doubt VanZant gets taken down so easily. Why?

Well, when she stopped going for the idiotic head-and-arm throws in the clinch against Jessica Rose-Clark, she suddenly wasn't THAT trivial to take down, with Rose-Clark ending up once on her own back. Jessy Jess sucks, but she is bigger, stronger, and a better grappler than Ostovich, so that's an encouraging sign.

But let's say the fight does go to the ground. VanZant is easy to GnP, but considering Ostovich has none, it's a non-issue. Ostovich is even easier to GnP, but considering VanZant has none, it's a non-issue, too!

However, VanZant does have some sweeps, reversals, and is pretty good at kicking off the cage. Ostovich looked astonishingly awful off her back against de la Rosa, like someone on their first day of BJJ.

Essentially, Ostovich's grappling consists of a sloppy armbar and little else. Luckily, for those who have seen the Rose Namajunas fight, we know Paige VanZant has hyper-flexible arms, managing to roll out of two tight Namajunas armbars that would have fucked up many other fighter's arms in that spot. Needless to say, Namajunas' armbar is far more technical, with more extension, and more physical strength applied than the lousy crap we've seen from Ostovich.

It's also worth mentioning that Ostovich, in addition to having a weak chin, tends to fade in fights and give up. VanZant fights hard until the bitter end. In a match between two shit combatants, that can often be the difference.

There is some risk here, as VanZant can fight like an idiot, get put repeatedly on her back and lose rounds, or give up her neck when Ostovich takes her back (which she is decent at, even if she is easy to shrug off from there). However, I think we're assuming a level of competence from Ostovich she has never shown, including not folding to adversity, and an especially bad VanZant. (Who is improving from bout to bout, if far more slowly than she should be)

I bet 2u on Paige VanZant, a lighter bet than I would like, but again, there is some danger.

Today I tortured myself by watching the last 4 fights of Paige VanZant and the last 3 fights of Rachael Ostovich, two fighters I had blissfully never seen before.

My conclusion? They're both awful and have no business being in the UFC, let alone as the co-main of this card. Does that mean there isn't no opportunity to make money? Of course there is!

In the stand-up, which I anticipate there being long stretches of, which most (sane) people will use to grab a beer, Ostovich actually has the technical edge, as she can throw a competent jab (!!!) and her leg kicks are thrown more accurately than VanZant's attempts. Unfortunately, she has the reach of a midget, throws a strike at a time, and doesn't come forward, meaning VanZant's longer limbs, higher rate of activity, and genuinely good circling away from the power will be enough to win on the judge's cards.

Let's also not forget that Ostovich has a horrendous chin and is badly bothered by even the mildest contact, whereas VanZant, if nothing else, is tough and has plenty of heart, taking a beating against Rose Namajunas.

Now lets look at the grappling. Despite her much ballyhooed judo and wrestling background, Ostovich sucks at both, and her takedowns are laughable. On the flipside, VanZant has horrendous takedown defense. And yet, I doubt VanZant gets taken down so easily. Why?

Well, when she stopped going for the idiotic head-and-arm throws in the clinch against Jessica Rose-Clark, she suddenly wasn't THAT trivial to take down, with Rose-Clark ending up once on her own back. Jessy Jess sucks, but she is bigger, stronger, and a better grappler than Ostovich, so that's an encouraging sign.

But let's say the fight does go to the ground. VanZant is easy to GnP, but considering Ostovich has none, it's a non-issue. Ostovich is even easier to GnP, but considering VanZant has none, it's a non-issue, too!

However, VanZant does have some sweeps, reversals, and is pretty good at kicking off the cage. Ostovich looked astonishingly awful off her back against de la Rosa, like someone on their first day of BJJ.

Essentially, Ostovich's grappling consists of a sloppy armbar and little else. Luckily, for those who have seen the Rose Namajunas fight, we know Paige VanZant has hyper-flexible arms, managing to roll out of two tight Namajunas armbars that would have fucked up many other fighter's arms in that spot. Needless to say, Namajunas' armbar is far more technical, with more extension, and more physical strength applied than the lousy crap we've seen from Ostovich.

It's also worth mentioning that Ostovich, in addition to having a weak chin, tends to fade in fights and give up. VanZant fights hard until the bitter end. In a match between two shit combatants, that can often be the difference.

There is some risk here, as VanZant can fight like an idiot, get put repeatedly on her back and lose rounds, or give up her neck when Ostovich takes her back (which she is decent at, even if she is easy to shrug off from there). However, I think we're assuming a level of competence from Ostovich she has never shown, including not folding to adversity, and an especially bad VanZant. (Who is improving from bout to bout, if far more slowly than she should be)

I bet 2u on Paige VanZant, a lighter bet than I would like, but again, there is some danger.

Good post.

I agree by and large. But I'll tell you whats stopping me from backing PVZ.

I agree that Ostovich holds the slight advantage in striking and also in defense. There isn't too much between them in terms of size btw. PVZ has shown zero head movement in any fight and gets hit clean in every fight. Good thing most wmma combatants have pillow power.

So you gotta expect PVZ to take clean shots here every now and then. Her lack of head movement means her head bobbles a bit when she gets hit and its a clear point scoring thing for her opponent.

The other thing is that PVZ employs a lot of movement and kicking the air Theodorou style. Ostovich will be the one coming forward I expect, again this isn't a good look for judges. If PVZ comes forward shes not that difficult to take down.

The last thing I noticed is that Ostovich actually goes for takedowns quite a bit and gets them. This is negated by them both being sloppy as hell on the ground but still, it's not a good look getting taken down. When they are both on the ground I give the edge to PVZ even off her back but it's still a risky situation.

I've seen posts making out like this is a mismatch for PVZ. I don't see that. Shes got advantages here but Ostovich has some things that are naturally in her favour if they fight the way they always fight. You can't expect much of a change due to the absence of fight IQ from both fighters.

Now saying all that, I still might actually back PVZ here and for the same reasons you mentioned. The intangibles like heart/chin/toughness/athleticism and also recent mental health over the past few months are all on PVZ's side you'd think. Given two fairly similarly matched fighters, those things are pretty big things to take into account.

Overall I'd say that I can definitely understand people hitting PVZ at her current price and I may do so also but mainly due to the intangibles she has over Ostovich. From a pure MMA style perspective, I wouldn't pay juice on PVZ here.

 

[Austisthunder]

Y’all memed me into not wanting to bet on PVZ and now I’m having an extraterrestrial crisis

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

After typing up my thoughts on the worst fight of the card, PVZ vs. Ostovich, I spent some time watching tape on the dumbest fight of the card, Hardy vs. Crowder. Both call to mind the most ridiculous freakshow matches PRIDE (Never Die) put on back in the day.

A good way to think of Hardy is a far inferior version of N'Gannou with way more question marks and infamy. He started MMA much later than the African did, and never boxed before then. He is at least 10-15 pounds heavier, and given his lack of wrestling, this will only make him slower, with worse cardio. He only has power in one hand (the right) instead of both. He presently throws one power punch reasonably well (overhand right) instead of multiple ones. It's doubtful if he can defend takedowns or explode off the ground the way N'Gannou can, either.

Most interestingly, Hardy hasn't corrected very basic, simple flaws from one pro fight to another. You would imagine someone in his camp would have said "Hey Greg, stop sticking your neck so far forward like a goddamn turtle!", but either they didn't, or Hardy didn't give a shit. And yes, that's absolutely something a brand-new pro can fix in a month or less, let alone three and a half.

Of course, heavyweights freaking suck, and a big, strong, very athletic guy with a fast right hand that has legitimate knockout power can go surprisingly far.

At the same time, WME got way too greedy here. Allen Crowder sucks and is the perfect opponent for Hardy to look good against, but he is also an enormous step up in competition. At this point in his career, Crowder would have smashed Hardy's three pro opponents almost as easily and quickly as Hardy did.

If they had given Hardy just 6 more months and 3 increasingly better opponents since he beat Ray Jones, Crowder would probably be a cinch.

But right now, there is enough chance that Crowder stalls and clinches his way to victory, gets a takedown and opens him up with elbows (which he throws surprisingly well), catches Hardy with a punch when he runs in with his hands down, or has a better gas tank after round 1 that I would avoid Hardy at anything worse than about -350, nevermind his current prices. On the flip side, Crowder isn't quite appealing enough to bet, either. Mostly because he is an idiot and hasn't even tried to improve his defense between his appearance on Contenders and his loss to Willis.

I don't like any of the props except for one. FDNGTD was a steal at its opener of -400, which several people mentioned, and I don't even hate it at its current price of -800, as it's so difficult to imagine scenarios where the fight reaches decision.

 

[Broe.]

I bet glover for 1.87, i havent put too much research into it. But i think the size advantage and a lack of a groundgame will be the downfall for Roberson.

 

[Gugabe]

Well this is not a surprise Te Edwards is now a slight favorite.
I will betting Edwards for a KO 1st rd.

Big surprise to me since it feels like Te should be KO1 or bust as a bet. Bermudez has shown way-deeper competency at every area of MMA aside from power punching.

After typing up my thoughts on the worst fight of the card, PVZ vs. Ostovich, I spent some time watching tape on the dumbest fight of the card, Hardy vs. Crowder. Both call to mind the most ridiculous freakshow matches PRIDE (Never Die) put on back in the day.

A good way to think of Hardy is a far inferior version of N'Gannou with way more question marks and infamy. He started MMA much later than the African did, and never boxed before then. He is at least 10-15 pounds heavier, and given his lack of wrestling, this will only make him slower, with worse cardio. He only has power in one hand (the right) instead of both. He presently throws one power punch reasonably well (overhand right) instead of multiple ones. It's doubtful if he can defend takedowns or explode off the ground the way N'Gannou can, either.

Most interestingly, Hardy hasn't corrected very basic, simple flaws from one pro fight to another. You would imagine someone in his camp would have said "Hey Greg, stop sticking your neck so far forward like a goddamn turtle!", but either they didn't, or Hardy didn't give a shit. And yes, that's absolutely something a brand-new pro can fix in a month or less, let alone three and a half.

Of course, heavyweights freaking suck, and a big, strong, very athletic guy with a fast right hand that has legitimate knockout power can go surprisingly far.

At the same time, WME got way too greedy here. Allen Crowder sucks and is the perfect opponent for Hardy to look good against, but he is also an enormous step up in competition. At this point in his career, Crowder would have smashed Hardy's three pro opponents almost as easily and quickly as Hardy did.

If they had given Hardy just 6 more months and 3 increasingly better opponents since he beat Ray Jones, Crowder would probably be a cinch.

But right now, there is enough chance that Crowder stalls and clinches his way to victory, gets a takedown and opens him up with elbows (which he throws surprisingly well), catches Hardy with a punch when he runs in with his hands down, or has a better gas tank after round 1 that I would avoid Hardy at anything worse than about -350, nevermind his current prices. On the flip side, Crowder isn't quite appealing enough to bet, either. Mostly because he is an idiot and hasn't even tried to improve his defense between his appearance on Contenders and his loss to Willis.

I don't like any of the props except for one. FDNGTD was a steal at its opener of -400, which several people mentioned, and I don't even hate it at its current price of -800, as it's so difficult to imagine scenarios where the fight reaches decision.

I'm happy since my book opened fight to end by KO1 @ -149. Just about the only way I think the fight is playable.

 

[edole]

1.3 u on Hernandez. If his price improves, I'll add more

 

[DevilsPt2]

Anyone else interested in Bautista? Sandhagens TDD is in question, Bautista looks sticky with hunting the takedown and good on the ground. Sandhagen is probably going to have to overwhelm him to get a tko but prob wont be able to put up consistent offense without Bautista breaking his rhythm fighting for a takedown. Sandhagen was also training for a completely different type of fight. Maybe +325 is just looking mighty tasty.

 

[Jordan3399]

Anyone else interested in Bautista? Sandhagens TDD is in question, Bautista looks sticky with hunting the takedown and good on the ground. Sandhagen is probably going to have to overwhelm him to get a tko but prob wont be able to put up consistent offense without Bautista breaking his rhythm fighting for a takedown. Sandhagen was also training for a completely different type of fight. Maybe +325 is just looking mighty tasty.

Looks tempting stylistically, wouldn't bet too early though given how much Sandhangens line swung vs Lineker and potentially to see how Bautista looks at the weigh in with only a weeks notice.

 

[Jordan3399]

Love the price on Glover now, liked him as a dog but I'll happily take him over a mediocre striker going up a weight class on a weeks notice with a weak ground game.

Glover can pretty much use the same gameplan but up against a significantly weaker opponent.

 

[Dianabol]

Think Roberson might surprise you guys

 

[Austisthunder]

Would someone be a homie and tell me where I can find tape of Bautistas last fight or two?

Sandhagan getting td doesn’t bother me so much but i should probably stop blind betting....

 

[longway]

Anyone else interested in Bautista? Sandhagens TDD is in question, Bautista looks sticky with hunting the takedown and good on the ground. Sandhagen is probably going to have to overwhelm him to get a tko but prob wont be able to put up consistent offense without Bautista breaking his rhythm fighting for a takedown. Sandhagen was also training for a completely different type of fight. Maybe +325 is just looking mighty tasty.

From the little tape I have seen, it's tempting. But there just isn't enough tape out Bautista on the net, and his opponents have largely been scrubs. How the hell can you get to see old LFA fights? There must be a way. Please, can anyone give away this secret?

Given that Bautista is a pressure fighter and loves to put people against the cage, and for all his talents, one of Sandhagen's flaws is backing away in a straight line when under pressure, there is a POV. But does Bautista have the skill required to make that happen consistently, or will he just get pieced up?

 

[Jordan3399]

Think Roberson might surprise you guys

He could for sure, he had an impressive last fight and there's definitely factors in his favour but given the circumstances and odds so close, Teixeira seems like an obvious bet. If it wasn't for his age I'd expect him to be a far bigger fav.

I don't see why Glover can't do exactly what Cezar Ferreira did to him and it's not like Glovers lost to anything other than top 10 ranked LHW's, all of which had a wrestling advantage and he's going up against a short notice, unranked MW failed kickboxer. Roberson should have a striking edge but it's not like he's a dominant KO artist or even anything that great even at 185, aside from his KO on DWTNC series he's had no significant finishes. Even if he was a heavy hitter it took Gustafsson 5 rounds and multiple big uppercuts to finish and Cirkunov too landed many clean shots without troubling Glover although his defence was awful.

 

[longway]

I've just noticed that Bermudez is now the underdog!

 

[Dianabol]

Yeah if Glover can Roberson on the mat, especially early when they're dry, I'd be very worried for Roberson. I don't think Glover is the submission artist Cezar is but he's still a legit BJJ BB. He pounded out Cirkunov quickly but also lay and prayed against Cannonier which was unimpressive. Cirkunov is just a wimp and a front runner though.

Glover on a serious decline though, taken massive damage, looks slow af and who can blame him, been in the game for nearly 20 years, bout to turn 40 years old.

Roberson may be the smaller guy but he's also much faster than Glover and holds a significant edge in the striking. Roberson seems like a bit of a gym rat too, so I expect him to be in decent shape despite short notice. Roberson's main training partner in Corey Anderson too, expect him to only get better at stopping takedowns. Obviously Roberson is already a great athlete and striker, just needs the rest of his game to catch up.

I could see Glover dominating this on the mat but I could also see Roberson getting a KO or making Glover is punching bag for 3 rounds.

How much does Glover have left?
How much has Roberson improved his grappling and TDD?
These are the questions

 

[burge13]

Short notice, size and grappling, I'll probably play Glover but he looked slower than my 86 year old grandpa last time out. Awful

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Edward's shouldn't be favored. Thinking about switching sides to Berm at + money.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Think Roberson might surprise you guys

I would agree with this. He has proven quite well in the last few fights.

 

[turbozed]

Maybe. I was just going off the bout order. Regardless, this is a putrid match that should be held in Invicta, not the 2nd or 3rd last fight of a significant UFC event.



Good analysis, and I largely agree; VanZant-Ostovich looks like a mismatch on paper, but once I watched their respective fights, I realized it was actually relatively close. I had to seriously think about whether to bet the line at all, and ended up going much lighter than I would like. From a handicapping perspective, I think the initial line of -200 for PVZ was quite accurate.

I'm not sure about Ostovich coming forward, though; she has a tendency to passively sit on the outside and doesn't have the tools to effectively get inside, something her father/cornerman yelled at her for. There is no reason she should have been bleeding rounds to de la Rosa either, and yet, her opponent was up 2-0 going into the 3rd.

On the bright side, the betting stake gives us a reason to be interested in this otherwise dreadful fight. Just don't go betting the house on this one!

I bet Ostovich at +160 and like the price a lot. As was mentioned before, PVZ's advantages in this fight are all intangibles--heart and grit and the occasional jump kick that lands out of 50 attempts. But PVZ against any decent 125 lber with any sort of grappling is a bad matchup for her. She looked absolutely tiny in there with JRC, and didn't look like she bulked up at all for the higher division. She hasn't submitted anyone off her back that I know and her physicality disadvantage up a weightclass should make it even harder for her to lock something up.

Ostovich doesn't really have to work too hard to get inside. PVZ is no Joanna and her outside movement is non-functional wasted movement. She'll take a bunch of steps back and forth but when she's ready to strike, she literally stands upright in place for a couple of seconds giving any girl looking for a TD ample time to get one off. JRC looked like she could've taken PVZ down whenever she wanted but was too happy to make use of her boxing advantage. Ostovich can take it to the ground whenever she's not liking the standup or just to seal a close round. I rewatched the DLR fight and thought both 2 rounds were 50/50, scoring them for Ostovich (were scorecards released?).

I really didn't think PVZ would fight again at 125, and now she's a favorite and it's hard for me to pass up this opportunity despite the weirdness of the situation. Whatever emotional issues Ostovich is having, PVZ has had her own issues not training for 9 out of the 12 months since her last fight, getting married, multiple surgeries, getting tits, etc. PVZ won 1 round in her past 4 fights and would probably be 0-4 if Rawlings didn't fall for that silly jump kick (and that 3rd round in JRC fight was very close and JRC was cruising anyway).

 

[turbozed]

Seems like there's been enough Neal/Belal talk but I'll share my breakdown notes anyway:

Belal looks to be a very good striking style matchup for Neal. While Belal is a solid, well-rounded fighter, he's going to be at a disadvantage when it comes every category of physical attributes. Neal appears to be more explosive, powerful, and dangerous fighter with faster and more accurate hands. Add to that a 4" reach advantage and a slight height advantage and it doesn't appear that Belal will have anything to offer Neal when it comes to the striking.

Worse yet, Belal doesn't respond that well to pressure, lacking any real counterstriking game and having to reset before getting his own offense off. His defense is decent, avoiding the big punches. But his slow reactions, lack of head movement, and his tendency to linger in the pocket means he eats quite a few quick jabs and straight punches without even a head turn or getting a hand up. This is going to be a big problem against Neal who throws tight and compact straight punches quickly and with power. Neal also throws them in bunches which means that if the first punch is defended, the second or third are likely to land.

Belal's striking works at times in the context of his overall game. His takedowns aren't overpowering, but they are enough of at threat and he mixes them in often enough where opponents are wary to just dive into the pocket with offense. This worked against someone like Tim Means who was landing well when on the offensive, but would often allow Belal to reset and answer back with more volume. I don't expect Neal to be as tentative, and his power and ability to close distance and throw accurate straight punches means Belal will be moving back even more and have less of an opportunity to reset.

Belal does have serviceable mma wrestling, although it doesn't appear to be high level. He will often shoot for the hips at distance without much of a setup. The little we have seen from Neal's counterwrestling looks pretty solid. When his opponent in his contender series fight wisely went to clinch up with Neal, Neal found the underhooks quickly and shrugged him off. If there's any concern it may be that Neal's wrestling, like his striking, may rely a lot on explosive movements.

This leads us to the only advantage I can confidently say Belal has in the fight and that's cardio and grit. Belal will fight for all 15 minutes and has a few late finishes (3rd and 4th rounds). He knows how to pace himself and makes the right tactical decisions mid-fight (e.g., grappling with Brown when Brown was just establishing his striking). Neal, on the other hand, puts a lot into every technique, and it's questionable how he'll look in the 3rd round if Belal has been making him grapple and expend energy. Neal has been finished in the 3rd round twice, and this might indicate a cardio drop-off. If this fight makes it to the 3rd round, there's reason to be concerned if you're backing Neal here.

To win, Belal will have to avoid range striking, avoid exchanging in the pocket, and look for opportunities to clinch or for a TD. He'll need to be successful chain his TD attempts and stick to Neal like glue, and let Neal wear himself out, basically trying to his sap energy and make it to the later half of match. Belal will need to control Neal for at least 2 very ugly rounds or look for a late finish.

Neal just needs to do what he usually does. Get right into punching range, throw his powerful straight punches, and stay low and balanced to defend a TD. If he has Belal shooting unsuccessfully from distance, he can just repeat process and the odds of Belal mounting a late round rally decline sharply.

Neal -145 ML seems to have been a solid bet though I think there's value in the current -170, especially if live bet is available and you can hedge after a successful first or second round for Neal. Belal round 3 prop at +1900 seems like a solid hedge as well.

The counterwrestling ability of Neal seems to be the huge x-factor in this matchup so if any of you have anything to add on that front, please share.

 

[Dianabol]

I bet Ostovich at +160 and like the price a lot. As was mentioned before, PVZ's advantages in this fight are all intangibles--heart and grit and the occasional jump kick that lands out of 50 attempts. But PVZ against any decent 125 lber with any sort of grappling is a bad matchup for her. She looked absolutely tiny in there with JRC, and didn't look like she bulked up at all for the higher division. She hasn't submitted anyone off her back that I know and her physicality disadvantage up a weightclass should make it even harder for her to lock something up.

Ostovich doesn't really have to work too hard to get inside. PVZ is no Joanna and her outside movement is non-functional wasted movement. She'll take a bunch of steps back and forth but when she's ready to strike, she literally stands upright in place for a couple of seconds giving any girl looking for a TD ample time to get one off. JRC looked like she could've taken PVZ down whenever she wanted but was too happy to make use of her boxing advantage. Ostovich can take it to the ground whenever she's not liking the standup or just to seal a close round. I rewatched the DLR fight and thought both 2 rounds were 50/50, scoring them for Ostovich (were scorecards released?).

I really didn't think PVZ would fight again at 125, and now she's a favorite and it's hard for me to pass up this opportunity despite the weirdness of the situation. Whatever emotional issues Ostovich is having, PVZ has had her own issues not training for 9 out of the 12 months since her last fight, getting married, multiple surgeries, getting tits, etc. PVZ won 1 round in her past 4 fights and would probably be 0-4 if Rawlings didn't fall for that silly jump kick (and that 3rd round in JRC fight was very close and JRC was cruising anyway).

Hater confirmed

 

[turbozed]

Hater confirmed

Turbozed Absolutely HATES PVZ and You Won't Believe What He Posted!

Turbozed DESTROYS PVZ with LOGIC and REASON!

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I bet Ostovich at +160 and like the price a lot. As was mentioned before, PVZ's advantages in this fight are all intangibles--heart and grit and the occasional jump kick that lands out of 50 attempts. But PVZ against any decent 125 lber with any sort of grappling is a bad matchup for her. She looked absolutely tiny in there with JRC, and didn't look like she bulked up at all for the higher division. She hasn't submitted anyone off her back that I know and her physicality disadvantage up a weightclass should make it even harder for her to lock something up.

Ostovich doesn't really have to work too hard to get inside. PVZ is no Joanna and her outside movement is non-functional wasted movement. She'll take a bunch of steps back and forth but when she's ready to strike, she literally stands upright in place for a couple of seconds giving any girl looking for a TD ample time to get one off. JRC looked like she could've taken PVZ down whenever she wanted but was too happy to make use of her boxing advantage. Ostovich can take it to the ground whenever she's not liking the standup or just to seal a close round. I rewatched the DLR fight and thought both 2 rounds were 50/50, scoring them for Ostovich (were scorecards released?).

I really didn't think PVZ would fight again at 125, and now she's a favorite and it's hard for me to pass up this opportunity despite the weirdness of the situation. Whatever emotional issues Ostovich is having, PVZ has had her own issues not training for 9 out of the 12 months since her last fight, getting married, multiple surgeries, getting tits, etc. PVZ won 1 round in her past 4 fights and would probably be 0-4 if Rawlings didn't fall for that silly jump kick (and that 3rd round in JRC fight was very close and JRC was cruising anyway).

Your analysis was very thoughtful and good (as usual), but with one fatal flaw. You implied that Ostovich has any kind of grappling, size, or strength, when she sucks at all three. You nailed all of PVZ's defects, but you have to keep in mind that Ostovich has many of the same problems, if not worse.

I understand the desire to bet against a garbage, habitually overrated (betting-wise) fighter like VanZant, but Ostovich is like her slightly lousier Hawaiin doppelganger with far less toughness and shorter limbs, whether it's success at being an Instagram thot, choice of fighter husband, or abilities.