UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

JimGunn said:
It's not that clever, as most times one can't pick who will win, when both fighters have a real chance whether it be 80/20, 70/30. 60/40, 50/50 etc and your estimation of those chances of victory combined with the odds is the key to finding the value.
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was being ironic
 
Where do we think the main event line closes?

I want to bet Holloway, and I keep thinking we'll see Poirier money come in, but so far I've been wrong.

Give me -185 Holloway, por favor
 
+800 on Gastelum by decision?

I think that's way wide. I don't see it as outside the realms of possibility that Kelvin out wrestles him for 3/5 to a decision.
 
FourHorsemen said:
+800 on Gastelum by decision?

I think that's way wide. I don't see it as outside the realms of possibility that Kelvin out wrestles him for 3/5 to a decision.
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I can't imagine Kelvin wrestling for more than 2 rounds without getting tired. He'd have to land 100% of his TD attempts. Not impossible but he'd have to show some clever entries that we haven't seen yet. Even he had a Khabib style overhand to takedown, it would still be difficult to complete since he'll have to cover a ton of range and Adesnya angles off well. He'll need to try some sort of striking to TD combination after he's gotten Israel to the fence. Or maybe a kick-catch.
 
Man, I rarely say this but this but imo this card SUCKS when it comes to trying to find value. Every card has fights where you look at the line and are basically deciding "do I force a play pre-fight, or just look to live bet it because I can't find any value here." But looking at this card and the odds, the books actually seem to have the majority of them pegged pretty well (OR...you guys already moved the lines to about where they should be--I haven't been tracking movement obviously so it could be that too). But I don't envy you guys at all that are still looking to make plays because there isn't much value there on a lot of these fights.

My initial lean would have been Pantoja at anything less than -200 but after watching Reis/Nguyen again I changed my mind. Reis isn't as "done" as I thought. He still has some things in his favor in this fight (namely if he gets top position, Pantoja trusts his guard too much and will give rounds away vs a guy as capable with top control as Wilson). I still favor Pantoja (younger, more athletic, has taken less damage, very good grappler himself) but -150 seems about spot on. Just one of a number of fights where I'm like...

<Fedor23>
 
mkess101 said:
Man, I rarely say this but this but imo this card SUCKS when it comes to trying to find value. Every card has fights where you look at the line and are basically deciding "do I force a play pre-fight, or just look to live bet it because I can't find any value here." But looking at this card and the odds, the books actually seem to have the majority of them pegged pretty well (OR...you guys already moved the lines to about where they should be--I haven't been tracking movement obviously so it could be that too). But I don't envy you guys at all that are still looking to make plays because there isn't much value there on a lot of these fights.

My initial lean would have been Pantoja at anything less than -200 but after watching Reis/Nguyen again I changed my mind. Reis isn't as "done" as I thought. He still has some things in his favor in this fight (namely if he gets top position, Pantoja trusts his guard too much and will give rounds away vs a guy as capable with top control as Wilson). I still favor Pantoja (younger, more athletic, has taken less damage, very good grappler himself) but -150 seems about spot on. Just one of a number of fights where I'm like...

<Fedor23>
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On Reis at +165 personally. Hoping he can take a page from Ortiz but worried that Pan could find Reis' chin.
Wiktoruspro said:
Fuck numbers
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Most of the BR I'm playing with now is because of numbers. +4xx for Thug Rose to ko JJ was the best thing to happen to my gambling career.
 
mkess101 said:
Man, I rarely say this but this but imo this card SUCKS when it comes to trying to find value. Every card has fights where you look at the line and are basically deciding "do I force a play pre-fight, or just look to live bet it because I can't find any value here." But looking at this card and the odds, the books actually seem to have the majority of them pegged pretty well (OR...you guys already moved the lines to about where they should be--I haven't been tracking movement obviously so it could be that too). But I don't envy you guys at all that are still looking to make plays because there isn't much value there on a lot of these fights.

My initial lean would have been Pantoja at anything less than -200 but after watching Reis/Nguyen again I changed my mind. Reis isn't as "done" as I thought. He still has some things in his favor in this fight (namely if he gets top position, Pantoja trusts his guard too much and will give rounds away vs a guy as capable with top control as Wilson). I still favor Pantoja (younger, more athletic, has taken less damage, very good grappler himself) but -150 seems about spot on. Just one of a number of fights where I'm like...

<Fedor23>
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What do you think about Gas/Bender fight?
 
Naught2Sixty said:
On Reis at +165 personally. Hoping he can take a page from Ortiz but worried that Pan could find Reis' chin.
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i have no idea if he wins but i'm confident reis is the right side around those odds
 
piglord said:
i have no idea if he wins but i'm confident reis is the right side around those odds
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I agree. Took the nice + odds blind thinking I could buy out after tape. After tape wish I had gone bigger. Tempted to add even at the smaller dog odds. I think Pantoja might be outmatched physically and I'm not sold on Pantoja's striking.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
On Reis at +165 personally. Hoping he can take a page from Ortiz but worried that Pan could find Reis' chin.
Most of the BR I'm playing with now is because of numbers. +4xx for Thug Rose to ko JJ was the best thing to happen to my gambling career.
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She had A real chance to win. I bet her myself that time :)
 
I see some value on Max Griffin. Zelim Imadaev has some serious power and he can for sure end the night early for poor Max but he has also fought mostly absolute bums. He did fight a veteran in his last fight though and knocked him dead, that was the 4th time that guy had been knocked out though.
The russian doesn't seem to be one of those monster wrestlers either so I bet Max can get him down enough to cash in on the scorecards and I wouldn't rank Zelim as good of a striker as Curtis Millender for example.
 

Poirier seems to me too confident in his improved striking skills, from this interview I got that he thinks he is the better striker, for sure the heavier puncher (I'll give him that). But I didn't hear nothing about aiming for the ground and using his BJJ to win this fight. Not a smart idea vs. Holloway. In my mind, if Poirier doesn't take this fight to the ground, he is gonna get knocked out, probably somewhere in the later rounds.
 
Kyle Stephens said:

Poirier seems to me too confident in his improved striking skills, from this interview I got that he thinks he is the better striker, for sure the heavier puncher (I'll give him that). But I didn't hear nothing about aiming for the ground and using his BJJ to win this fight. Not a smart idea vs. Holloway. In my mind, if Poirier doesn't take this fight to the ground, he is gonna get knocked out, probably somewhere in the later rounds.
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He knows about taking it to the ground. He seems to be deliberately avoiding mentioning it in interviews as plenty of people have asked him about going to the ground and he just makes evasive comments and doesn't go into it.
 
Kyle Stephens said:

Poirier seems to me too confident in his improved striking skills, from this interview I got that he thinks he is the better striker, for sure the heavier puncher (I'll give him that). But I didn't hear nothing about aiming for the ground and using his BJJ to win this fight. Not a smart idea vs. Holloway. In my mind, if Poirier doesn't take this fight to the ground, he is gonna get knocked out, probably somewhere in the later rounds.
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Who's the work horse, the all rounder? Going by what we've seen I'd have to say Dustin. He can strike, wrestle, has a good ground game, good in the clinch... We've only really seen Max strike.

Even still I favour Max
 
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