UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

Jordan3399 said:
He knows about taking it to the ground. He seems to be deliberately avoiding mentioning it in interviews as plenty of people have asked him about going to the ground and he just makes evasive comments and doesn't go into it.
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Exactly. Make no mistake about it, he'll take this to the ground. You can see him wrestling a lot on the countdown show, even with masvidal. Let's go dustin!! Need some $$

Pd: he ain't lying about his improved striking tho. Max is very good but he doesn't have much pop. I expect this to be a dog fight.
 
LEMONZEST said:
What do you think about Gas/Bender fight?
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I liked the NOT Israel itd line until it moved. Most likely outcome is Israel by dec imo but now at +159...no way. Israel now -165, that seems **about** right to me. Kelvin is a more live dog than some people believe imo but still favor Adesanya. IDK man...right now yo me any pre fight bet at current odds seems forced. I'm sure there's been line movement and some people have good action on it but I'd pass everything where it currently stands and just watch lines hoping for movement.
 
Jordan3399 said:
He knows about taking it to the ground. He seems to be deliberately avoiding mentioning it in interviews as plenty of people have asked him about going to the ground and he just makes evasive comments and doesn't go into it.
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The problem Dustin will have is that Max has become really good at angling off and still throwing counters when his opponents close distance. Makes it harder to get ahold of him if taking him down is the goal. I'm not saying Dustin is incapable of doing it, but it's one of those things that's easier said than done. And Dustin is a striker first, grappler second. His instinct when he gets hit is to bite down on his mouthguard and throw power shots in return, not to shoot for a TD.

The good news for Dustin is that he at least **seems** coachable. So if they've been drilling level changes and entries a lot then maybe he'll have more success grappling than I think he will.
 
I don't know how much value you guys out into this but the heavy hands guys, Jack Slack and pretty much every other MMA betting podcast, pick Max and Israel to win.

Heavy Hands actually think less of Kelvin's game than I do. Basically they boil him down to his one two and his sort of leap into them, say that he struggled with every guy that used lateral movement, never mind a guy with Isreal's footwork. They go for Isreal by a discsion, which I would agree.
 
ApplesVild said:
I don't know how much value you guys out into this but the heavy hands guys, Jack Slack and pretty much every other MMA betting podcast, pick Max and Israel to win.

Heavy Hands actually think less of Kelvin's game than I do. Basically they boil him down to his one two and his sort of leap into them, say that he struggled with every guy that used lateral movement, never mind a guy with Isreal's footwork. They go for Isreal by a discsion, which I would agree.
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You can add Brendan Dorman to that list of analysts on Max and Israel too. The guys that are picking Poirier or Gastelum seem to be the betting podcast guys (Half the Battle, Dog or Pass, etc.)

Edit: YouTube analyst TheWeasle also lines Adesanya at -335 and Holloway at -120.
 
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I would add that they did say that if Kelvin can get a take down or cause is scramble is is lightning fast as jumping on rear naked chokes.

A small hedge on Kelvin via sub doesn't seem like a bad call
 
ApplesVild said:
Who's the work horse, the all rounder?
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To me both qualify for being a work horses and all rounders. Max can do it all, he just hasn't made to show all of his cards I think.
ApplesVild said:
I don't know how much value you guys out into this but the heavy hands guys, Jack Slack and pretty much every other MMA betting podcast, pick Max and Israel to win.
Heavy Hands actually think less of Kelvin's game than I do. Basically they boil him down to his one two and his sort of leap into them, say that he struggled with every guy that used lateral movement, never mind a guy with Isreal's footwork. They go for Isreal by a discsion, which I would agree.
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Yeah, It's not shocking for the non-betting, purely technique podcasts to pick the favourite the magority of the time. Just they pick who, in their opinion, has bigger chance to win. Even if it is a slightly bigger chance, they will pick according to what they feel is the right choice, they have to. They work with what they see on tape and they don't put money on fights so... But I agree with both of their picks. Gastelum struggles with people who can circle. His one-two is not meant for cutting off the octagon and the fact that he doesn't kick isn't helping either. And I've stated my opinion on the other fight already. I feel Gastelum has bigger value as an underdog just because of the relative to him MMA inexperience of Adesanya and Gastelum can crack, Adesanya is more of an attrition based striker. So even if the technique edge is on the side of Adesanya I think the power edge is for Kelvin in this fight.
 
After doing full tape on OSP/Krylov I am switching sides to OSP. From memory I thought Krylov had far better hands, but he is extremely kick heavy, which often leads to him on his back. He also thinks he is a far better grappler then he truly is and is very much sub over position, which puts him in dangerous spots. Against an opportunist sub threat like OSP that spells disaster. I still beleive OSP is on a slight decline, but I don't think it is enough to justify him as a dog in this spot.

I was also under the impression that Krylov had fixed some of his issues outside the UFC when in reality he just had soft matchups for his style. The Jan fight proved hes still the same guy. It's possible he comes out and catches OSP with a head kick or big shot early, but it is far more likely they hit the mat and OSP has a substantial advantage there. Had 1u Krylov +130 pretape, going to switch to 1u or so on OSP and see what I can get down on a sub line once other books open props.
 
turbozed said:
Edit: YouTube analyst TheWeasle also lines Adesanya at -335 and Holloway at -120.
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Kinda like some of the Weasle's stuff but his predictions especially involving betting are often way off. Especially lower down on this card he caps Turner at -240, Salmon at -240, Imadaev at -210, says he was surprised Randy Costa was the underdog. Seems like he really doesn't research a huge amount for a lot of the fights he makes predictions for.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Kinda like some of the Weasle's stuff but his predictions especially involving betting are often way off. Especially lower down on this card he caps Turner at -240, Salmon at -240, Imadaev at -210, says he was surprised Randy Costa was the underdog. Seems like he really doesn't research a huge amount for a lot of the fights he makes predictions for.
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Randy Costa isn't hot shit, that's for sure. His opposition level as an amateur was among the worst I have ever seen, KO1's are great and everything but when you're headkicking some guy that's never seriously trained in his life, who cares really? What's going to happen to a fighter matched that soft when they have to actually step it up?
 
Jordan3399 said:
Kinda like some of the Weasle's stuff but his predictions especially involving betting are often way off. Especially lower down on this card he caps Turner at -240, Salmon at -240, Imadaev at -210, says he was surprised Randy Costa was the underdog. Seems like he really doesn't research a huge amount for a lot of the fights he makes predictions for.
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I think he probably spends a lot more time on the main card fights. And probably even more on the main and co-main. If he only spends 5 seconds at the end of each video on the lowest of undercard fights like Davis/Costa, it makes sense that he wouldn't give it more than a cursory glance.
 


Chick is a beast and bring serious heat. Love those bodykicks, throwing them with conviction even into the third... What an absolute shame she's only fought on average like once a year since 2014...
 
LiquidNuke said:


Chick is a beast and bring serious heat. Love those bodykicks, throwing them with conviction even into the third... What an absolute shame she's only fought on average like once a year since 2014...
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Polly Bots hasnt gotten a chance to show us much in the UFC. Gets held against the cage by Pearl, quickly finished Kondo, and gets subbed in half a round yo Cynthia. Mueller is just the solid but not dangerous opponent that will let us see where Botelho is at. Hope it'll be good things but there's some doubt still whether she's legit. At the very least she should be stronger and more physical than Mueller.
 
turbozed said:
I think he probably spends a lot more time on the main card fights. And probably even more on the main and co-main. If he only spends 5 seconds at the end of each video on the lowest of undercard fights like Davis/Costa, it makes sense that he wouldn't give it more than a cursory glance.
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I understand why he does it but at the same time he's basically bullshitting out misleading content as filler which I feel degrades the good aspects of his work. He's added in the betting aspect to his videos but its really clear he has no idea what he's talking about regarding it.
 
turbozed said:
Polly Bots hasnt gotten a chance to show us much in the UFC. Gets held against the cage by Pearl, quickly finished Kondo, and gets subbed in half a round yo Cynthia. Mueller is just the solid but not dangerous opponent that will let us see where Botelho is at. Hope it'll be good things but there's some doubt still whether she's legit. At the very least she should be stronger and more physical than Mueller.
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I really can't fault the Cynthia loss, even though I was on her for that bout. Cynthia is legit, top of the pile. She also has a amateur win over the red hot prospect Aspen Ladd.

I think there's still room for Bot to be a wrecking ball within the UFC. She has great tools, and the other half of it is match making...
 
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