UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

ApplesVild said:
Curtis could easily land a bomb or clip Belal at any point, put a small play on Curtis KO maybe. I think Belal gets it done, he has the tools and if the game plan is correct he should be able to use them well and grind out (maybe finish on the ground) Curtis.
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Only action I have on the fight is a shot at the draw. Will probably play Belal if he becomes an underdog after the weigh in when the size difference is highlighted
 
I'm on Millender as well, same as I was against Zaleski. I've been a fan of the guy and have always thought he had a bright future in the UFC...
 
Any of you gentlemen brave enough to roll with Soukhamthath? At +400 and up that line seems to be a little out of control...
 
mkess101 said:
I see some value in Belal -140 after watching how much he has used his wrestling vs inferior grapplers. You guys maybe covered this already, but with the gaping holes in Millender's TDD and overall grappling, I don't see Muhammad really wasting much time even trying to strike. It's not like he can't and will get instantly blasted standing, but there's just no risk for him to go with a wrestling heavy gameplan. After dropping his last fight, he's not gonna want to lose 2 in a row.

I cap Belal closer to -200. For a card that seems really light on value, this is one I'd be playing for sure.
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I am with ya on this, have 3.33u -130. In hindsight I would have sized a little smaller, probably in the 2-2.5u range, but I do think Belal can make this look rather easy. I also don't agree that he has to win a decision, he has shown a decent back take, and Millender's RNC defense has been garbage since his bellator days. He got subbed my a brawler in Brennan Ward and undersized journeyman Fernando Gonzalez. Obviously both a long time ago, but does it really seem like hes improved his tdd and grappling deficiencies? I would say definitely not much.

Belal stuggles more with stout, athletic strikers with big power in their hands and tight boxing (Luque/Neal) way more than tall rangy strikers (Mein, Means, Brown). I would say Millender falls more towards the latter and has the worst tdd and getups of them all. He doesn't have big power in his hands and as a sharp friend pointed out to me, Belal does a good job of shooting to the outside, given it is a mirrored stance matchup (orthodox vs orthodox), this should take away Millender's knee up the middle, which was my big concern.
 
Soccer Steve said:
We're in exactly the same place. And we're both keeping it cool in here too so we don't look too foolish if Belal just warthogs him for 3 rounds.
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Millender NSC -120?

I think Belal wins but IF there's a finish I think it's more likely it's Curtis by KO than anything.
 
LiquidNuke said:
Any of you gentlemen brave enough to roll with Soukhamthath? At +400 and up that line seems to be a little out of control...
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I'm not putting money on him but the line is still ridicolous imo. That line is expected for a Jon Jones vs Anthony Smith or a Cyborg vs Lina Lansberg type of fight.

Also, put money on Millender via TKO/KO @ 4.75. Betting on Belals chin finally giving up in this one lol. He got almost killed by Jouban and Neal fight but managed to survive the decision. Millender's BJJ is diggedy-dogshit though.
 
Stunna77 said:
I am with ya on this, have 3.33u -130. In hindsight I would have sized a little smaller, probably in the 2-2.5u range, but I do think Belal can make this look rather easy. I also don't agree that he has to win a decision, he has shown a decent back take, and Millender's RNC defense has been garbage since his bellator days. He got subbed my a brawler in Brennan Ward and undersized journeyman Fernando Gonzalez. Obviously both a long time ago, but does it really seem like hes improved his tdd and grappling deficiencies? I would say definitely not much.

Belal stuggles more with stout, athletic strikers with big power in their hands and tight boxing (Luque/Neal) way more than tall rangy strikers (Mein, Means, Brown). I would say Millender falls more towards the latter and has the worst tdd and getups of them all. He doesn't have big power in his hands and as a sharp friend pointed out to me, Belal does a good job of shooting to the outside, given it is a mirrored stance matchup (orthodox vs orthodox), this should take away Millender's knee up the middle, which was my big concern.
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I agree with a lot of this but despite Millender's grappling flaws (which are huge) I don't see Belal looking for a sub. If it's gifted sure but I think it's more likely he tries to just stack Millender against the cage and work gnp and at worst win rounds that way.

I favor Muhammad for sure but if it ends itd I think most likely it's Curtis landing something big.
 
usernamee said:
I'm not putting money on him but the line is still ridicolous imo. That line is expected for a Jon Jones vs Anthony Smith or a Cyborg vs Lina Lansberg type of fight.

Also, put money on Millender via TKO/KO @ 4.75. Betting on Belals chin finally giving up in this one lol. He got almost killed by Jouban and Neal fight but managed to survive the decision. Millender's BJJ is diggedy-dogshit though.
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The Neal beating was bad... fights like that can sometimes compromise a fighters ability to take a shot. Sometimes they take something out of a fighter
 
mkess101 said:
I agree with a lot of this but despite Millender's grappling flaws (which are huge) I don't see Belal looking for a sub. If it's gifted sure but I think it's more likely he tries to just stack Millender against the cage and work gnp and at worst win rounds that way.

I favor Muhammad for sure but if it ends itd I think most likely it's Curtis landing something big.
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Oh yeah if there is a finish it is certainly more likely to be Millender landing a KO shot, I am just wary of using Millender NSC as a big hedge cause his sub defense is severely lacking.

BTW our Brewers need to get back on track tonight!
 
With all this podcast talk im becoming increasingly convinced of a complete groupthink mentality on quite a few fights because the herd is getting most of their opinions from 5 or less sources

Barzola from last week comes to mind specifically...
 
Austisthunder said:
With all this podcast talk im becoming increasingly convinced of a complete groupthink mentality on quite a few fights because the herd is getting most of their opinions from 5 or less sources

Barzola from last week comes to mind specifically...
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I listen to literally zero of those podcasts.

So if I lost, it's on my own damn choices/merits, lol. :mad:
 
Austisthunder said:
With all this podcast talk im becoming increasingly convinced of a complete groupthink mentality on quite a few fights because the herd is getting most of their opinions from 5 or less sources

Barzola from last week comes to mind specifically...
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I think the key with the podcasts is listen to the analysis, which is usually very good, but ignore the picks they make. A key example is heavy hands before the Usman/Woodly fight, they made all these great points about Usman, everything he brings to the table all of his advantages and so on, but then they both picked Woodly to win. The fight played out just how they imagined it would, all the advantages and path to victory they had for Usman happened.

Saying that there are guys out there who do break downs and fight picks and they they have a winning record, there's a guy on YouTube who breaks down all the fights, picks his winners for each but then on his laid section he gives out his actual bets. He's on a nine event profit streak, and if you played his bets at £100 a unit you'd be up £5000 so far this year... So, it's tough to say.
 
Austisthunder said:
With all this podcast talk im becoming increasingly convinced of a complete groupthink mentality on quite a few fights because the herd is getting most of their opinions from 5 or less sources

Barzola from last week comes to mind specifically...
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Poirier this week
 
Holloway all the way up to -170 on BOL if anyone has been waiting for better price.
 
Austisthunder said:
With all this podcast talk im becoming increasingly convinced of a complete groupthink mentality on quite a few fights because the herd is getting most of their opinions from 5 or less sources

Barzola from last week comes to mind specifically...
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Watching tape, forming your own opinion, bouncing it off a few other sharp guys >>>>>>>watching people who suck at betting do podcasts
 
raketmannen said:
Phil said he bet him as a "sadness hedge", he thought Muhammad should win and that he'd be sad if he lost, but at least he would get his pick right as consolidation... don't see how that can inspire much confidence
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At the risk of sounding stupid, I was driving while listening and zoned out long enough to hear Phil saying he was picking Millender. I didn't hear this lead-up, haha shit. In any case, I don't care who they eventually pick, I just like to hear them chat about it. @ApplesVild touched on it but their Usman-Woodley breakdown was great, and I actually added to Usman because of it. Then they both pick Woodley.
 
Tbf all I do at work is listen to podcasts for entertainment cause running cnc machines is incredibly monotonous and boring just happen to hit a few mma ones along the way. I'm perfectly capable of watching tape and losing money with my opinion on my own lol.
 
raketmannen said:
Only action I have on the fight is a shot at the draw. Will probably play Belal if he becomes an underdog after the weigh in when the size difference is highlighted
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What do people think about draw probability now that we have a new scoring system? It seems like draws are almost more rare? Thoughts?
 
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