The Ponies Thread (part 2)

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

What a whacky Derby. I forgot this thread was still up. Looks like some new enhanced footage showing WoW rank and fouling MS has come to light. When I first saw it on the replay, I knew the horse spooked, but like Saez, I thought it was owing to the energy and possible crowd. Horses don't spook like that w/out reason, so the issue became "what was the reason for the spook". If he did it because of the sound, then he deserves the DQ, but from watching WoW in training all week I knew he was practically uncontrollable and ready to explode.

It will be interesting to see what happens from here. I don't think I recall and issue so divisive in horse racing - the last might be Dancers Image, who was also DQ'd for having the equivalent to horse Tylenol in his system. I just wonder if people's minds are already too made up or they will change with more evidence. If the horse spooked for no reason, it's a DQ, but this new video makes it pretty hard to argue against him not being fouled from the rear and driven to veer. 20 horses on that track is way too small, nm in a mud pit - we saw almost worse with Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon last year - sadly, I partly wonder had that damage from that collision halted Magnum Moon's career or added to an injury that then resulted in him broken down shortly after in training......both of them got creamed, finished last, and they were probably the two best horses outside of Justify.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...rity-jockey-not-fault-lawyers-say/1166166001/

 

[Sharkey]

cool, thanks Sharkey. more questions if you have the time - what do all the numbers in post #1565 refer to and how did you generate them? i'm quite curious how handicappers such as yourself approach this sport and what resources you use to find an edge. (is there an edge? or is this just gambling after the usurious rake?)

You really are a curious one aren't you, Rings?

But yes, there are advantages in this game. Both on the handicapping side of things, and then especially on the wagering side of things if you have the discipline to wait for good opportunities. .

 

[Sharkey]

@RingsAndThings

As far as approach goes;

I love this quote even if it's 30 years old;

"What I like to see are the books and programs by fellows such as Andrew Beyer and William Quirin, the experts. And don't get me wrong, these guys are experts. These people serve a purpose. Whether they're teaching the correct thing, I can't say. But for my purposes, speaking purely for myself, what they teach me is very important. And that is, whatever they say, do the exact opposite. That's a very valuable piece of information as far as I'm concerned. You need that. You cannot develop a pattern of success unless you know who the losers are. Once you know who the losers are, once you discern properly the pattern they are using, if you do everything but what they do, you will be successful. This is basically what I've done in handicapping."

- Buddy Alvarado

 

[RingsAndThings]

You really are a curious one aren't you, Rings?

But yes, there are advantages in this game. Both on the handicapping side of things, and then especially on the wagering side of things if you have the discipline to wait for good opportunities. .

quite curious! is there somewhere i can learn what all the acronyms in your post about pace and counter energy mean? i found some useful information about pace and its relevance to handicapping but google couldn't tell me what counter energy means.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

@RingsAndThings

As far as approach goes;

What'd you think of the DQ? Legit? No?

 

[Sharkey]

quite curious! is there somewhere i can learn what all the acronyms in your post about pace and counter energy mean? i found some useful information about pace and its relevance to handicapping but google couldn't tell me what counter energy means.

If there is somewhere else you could find information on it, Rings, then I messed up big time along the way and let too much out. Haha. But no. It's my own system that was built entirely by myself, so searching elsewhere for answers won't do you any good.

But let me ask you a couple questions. Have you watched much racing? Handicapped many races before by using past performances? Made any bets on the races based on your handicapping?

You know something, Rings. Every year in early May horse racing sees millions and millions of additional new "fans" become interested in the sport. And every year in early June all these new "fans" go back to ignoring the sport until the next May rolls around. The Derby has that affect on people. In racing circles it's called getting a case of "Derby Fever". That's what I'm wondering about you to be honest. Maybe there is an interest in horse racing for you that will go beyond this time of the year, but that's something only time will tell.

If there is an interest in handicapping from you that goes beyond this time of the year hopefully you start with baby steps if you're a novice to this game. And while learning the handicapping process, hopefully you also understand those two principles I already hinted at. Be different enough from the public in what handicapping tools you use as the quote from Buddy Alvarado alludes to (that's to your advantage), and then have the discipline to wait for opportunities to beat the public when making your bets (measuring risk vs reward is obviously also to your advantage, as it it for any gambling/investment game). 98% of people who bet the horses with some regularity also lose money betting the horses, and that fact alone is a very powerful tool just by itself in understanding what not to put an over-reliance on when it comes to handicapping and what not to do when it comes to betting.

 

[Sharkey]

What'd you think of the DQ? Legit? No?

I didn't really care much about it last Saturday, Donk, and because I've had to come across discussions about this over and over again on my twitter feed and especially on a couple of sites I visit, I'm basically sick of seeing it being discussed and/or argued about. Haha. The result didn't affect me either way regardless.

 

[RingsAndThings]

If there is somewhere else you could find information on it, Rings, then I messed up big time along the way and let too much out. Haha. But no. It's my own system that was built entirely by myself, so searching elsewhere for answers won't do you any good.

But let me ask you a couple questions. Have you watched much racing? Handicapped many races before by using past performances? Made any bets on the races based on your handicapping?

my experience with horse races is mostly two trips to the track, one to arlington a few years ago and then to the oaks during the derby. i found the entire experience at the oaks to be extremely enjoyable and am curious in learning a bit more about how to approach horses sharply. as far as handicapping, i tried to use the racing form we bought at the oaks and do a bit of handicapping but whatever slim value i might have gleaned from that went out the window with the types of idiotic bets i made (a lot of trifecta and superfecta boxes with one favorite and two-three mid to long shots i thought had a chance. also paid quite a bit of respect to line movement i.e. when a horse listed at 14:1 was now 11:1). i think understand enough to have a vague sense of how and why those bets were bad now.

You know something, Rings. Every year in early May horse racing sees millions and millions of additional new "fans" become interested in the sport. And every year in early June all these new "fans" go back to ignoring the sport until the next May rolls around. The Derby has that affect on people. In racing circles it's called getting a case of "Derby Fever". That's what I'm wondering about you to be honest. Maybe there is an interest in horse racing for you that will go beyond this time of the year, but that's something only time will tell.

could very well be the case. without this thread i very well might not have spent much more time thinking about horses. but i figured as long as there is a place knowledgeable people are talking about horses and willing to answer a novice's questions i may as well take advantage.

If there is an interest in handicapping from you that goes beyond this time of the year hopefully you start with baby steps if you're a novice to this game. And while learning the handicapping process, hopefully you also understand those two principles I already hinted at. Be different enough from the public in what handicapping tools you use as the quote from Buddy Alvarado alludes to (that's to your advantage), and then have the discipline to wait for opportunities to beat the public when making your bets (measuring risk vs reward is obviously also to your advantage, as it it for any gambling/investment game). 98% of people who bet the horses with some regularity also lose money betting the horses, and that fact alone is a very powerful tool just by itself in understanding what not to put an over-reliance on when it comes to handicapping and what not to do when it comes to betting.

cool, thanks!

 

[timmyclax22]

What do we have for tomorrow boys?

 

[Black Paladin]

What do we have for tomorrow boys?

Baltimore, MD
Saturday • Partly cloudy until evening.

78°
F/ C
Humidity: 68%
Wind: 2 mph NE
Show More

 

[Austisthunder]

Bourbon war/ Improbable for me lads, gud luck

 

[timmyclax22]

@Sharkey @t6p who’d you take today?

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Bourbon war/ Improbable for me lads, gud luck

True story:

Got concrete work done on the pony barn last week and the bloke says: "I got a horse in the Preakness this week". So, me says, "Who?". And he says, "Bourbon War". He told me their best horse before was called "This Hard Land", and they went to Ocala to buy some new colts and saw a Tapit that had some serious problems but they chipped in and gave it a go. So, homie homeboy concrete dude and his bros went all in an bought BW for 400k. True story. Life is weird as fuk.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

I didn't really care much about it last Saturday, Donk, and because I've had to come across discussions about this over and over again on my twitter feed and especially on a couple of sites I visit, I'm basically sick of seeing it being discussed and/or argued about. Haha. The result didn't affect me either way regardless.

DAMN, I miss you bro. Baby girl is coming in 6 weeks. Keep me in the loop, man, will probably be inundated in poopie diapers soon. You are my favorite poster on here. I miss you, mang.

How's the wifey? All good in your neck of the woods?

 

[Austisthunder]

True story:

Got concrete work done on the pony barn last week and the bloke says: "I got a horse in the Preakness this week". So, me says, "Who?". And he says, "Bourbon War". He told me their best horse before was called "This Hard Land", and they went to Ocala to buy some new colts and saw a Tapit that had some serious problems but they chipped in and gave it a go. So, homie homeboy concrete dude and his bros went all in an bought BW for 400k. True story. Life is weird as fuk.

I respect dis, my dream is to waste my life savings on a couple of ponies with semi obscure bloodlines

 

[t6p]

@Sharkey @t6p who’d you take today?

Sorry buddy, no plays for me yesterday. Hope you cashed something though if you bet the race.

 

[Sharkey]

DAMN, I miss you bro. Baby girl is coming in 6 weeks. Keep me in the loop, man, will probably be inundated in poopie diapers soon. You are my favorite poster on here. I miss you, mang.

How's the wifey? All good in your neck of the woods?

Congrats on the baby girl, Donk. And cheers. Yeah, we're all good out here.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Congrats on the baby girl, Donk. And cheers. Yeah, we're all good out here.

Who you got in the Met, broseph? Your AV is running in one of the most stacked races in AGES!

 

[Sharkey]

Who you got in the Met, broseph? Your AV is running in one of the most stacked races in AGES!

It should be an interesting race for sure if all those pointed towards it end up there. The whole card should be good as it tends to be on Belmont day. One of the best days of racing each year.

 

[Sharkey]

May be a decent opportunity coming up later today at Monmouth at least as far as straight betting goes. But possibly in the exotics too with two potential keys (#6 and #8) if the #4 takes the money I suspect it will being a Chad Brown trained horse, and so many defaulting their bets to Chad on the turf.

I don't do place probabilities for turf races. And I'm really only interested in betting those I listed the ML odds for if exotics become an option. This is also assuming a firm turf course.

==========

Race 9 at Monmouth (8.5f Turf);

#6 EP - 79.2, LP - 63.9, SP - 80.2, TT - 52.4, MP - 79.6, EL - 74.8, DP - 80.2, ELD - 78.9, SF - 106.2, BT - 109.4, AC - 192.2, PP - 161.4, NF - 51.0 (31.8% = 2.1/1) *6/1 ML* (NPT, E2, LET)
#8 EP - 79.4, LP - 64.3, SP - 80.5, TT - 51.7, MP - 79.7, EL - 75.2, DP - 80.5, ELD - 78.8, SF - 90.9, BT - 103.4, AC - 186.0, PP - 161.8, NF - 50.5 (19.8% = 4.0/1) *7/2 ML*
#2 EP - 75.7, LP - 63.8, SP - 78.3, TT - 51.5, MP - 77.5, EL - 73.2, DP - 79.1, ELD - 75.7, SF - 90.8, BT - 100.6, AC - 175.1, PP - 158.1, NF - 49.4 (10.7% = 8.3/1) *8/1 ML*
#4 EP - 74.6, LP - 65.8, SP - 79.0, TT - 53.3, MP - 78.7, EL - 73.4, DP - 80.8, ELD - 72.1, SF - 82.7, BT - 94.4, AC - 176.7, PP - 161.1, NF - 52.1 (10.0% = 9.0/1)
#5 EP - 73.4, LP - 69.0, SP - 80.4, TT - 54.2, MP - 80.3, EL - 74.4, DP - 83.5, ELD - 66.8, SF - 80.7, BT - 89.0, AC - 181.0, PP - 165.4, NF - 42.0 (9.1% = 10.0/1) *6/1 ML*
#3 EP - 81.7, LP - 59.5, SP - 78.7, TT - 50.5, MP - 77.5, EL - 73.9, DP - 76.7, ELD - 70.9, SF - 93.9, BT - 97.8, AC - 166.1, PP - 155.7, NF - 47.4 (7.5% = 12.3/1)
#9 EP - 75.9, LP - 62.9, SP - 77.9, TT - 52.4, MP - 77.3, EL - 72.6, DP - 78.4, ELD - 76.9, SF - 82.1, BT - 98.3, AC - 171.9, PP - 157.3, NF - 36.7 (6.4% = 14.7/1)
#1 EP - 75.8, LP - 64.3, SP - 78.7, TT - 51.4, MP - 77.8, EL - 73.6, DP - 79.6, ELD - 75.2, SF - 76.0, BT - 94.5, AC - 170.4, PP - 159.0, NF - 29.0 (4.8% = 19.9/1)

==========