UFC 239 - Jones vs Santos

Jan's best part to his striking is what? His (right, I think?) body kick? Luke's better there.

Jan loves to spend a ton of time grappling. Luke's better there. I kind of think it ends up with Jan trying to grapple, Luke obliging, and then proceeding to destroy him on the ground
 
Jordan3399 said:
Reasonable chance Marshman lands a big right hand and he gets KTFO.
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Phillips/Marshman was dire, and in all honesty in my eyes looked like two of the worst current UFC signed fighters going at it. Since when has Marshman been a one hitter quitter type puncher anyway? I always saw him as a decent puncher, nothing else.
 
What % chance do people give Askren to get a finish? I'm honestly surprised to see his Not ITD line under -500. Masvidal has not been finished since 2009. I know Askren was getting finishes in One, but those opponents were much worse.
 
Oblivian said:
What % chance do people give Askren to get a finish? I'm honestly surprised to see his Not ITD line under -500. Masvidal has not been finished since 2009. I know Askren was getting finishes in One, but those opponents were much worse.
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But seriously? He's not finishing Lawler AND Mas...is he?
 
I definitely feel he has a chance, but I honestly only give it 10% or less.
 
LiquidNuke said:
Phillips/Marshman was dire, and in all honesty in my eyes looked like two of the worst current UFC signed fighters going at it. Since when has Marshman been a one hitter quitter type puncher anyway? I always saw him as a decent puncher, nothing else.
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His actual boxing isn't bad and he has decent power. Wrecked a fairly solid fighter in Cedenblad in his debut and dropped Thiago Santos hard in R1 of their fight (Was actually on a +130 Dog to Santos in that fight). But yeah other than that he sucks skillwise. Purple belt in BJJ too but none of the wrestling needed to ever get anything going with it.
 
ill800 said:
Don’t think David branch would drop him at 205
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Branch never dropped him at 185, he just pressured forward and caught Luke a few times against the fence where Luke is bad technically and has that awful defence. Aside from the Vitor KO (which would of put down anyone), Rockholds other UFC losses, and problems with Branch, were all guys exploiting his defence, not him just having a weak chin.

How is his inability to raise his right hand and tuck his chin when going to dramatically improve by cutting less weight?
 
Foghorn Leghorn said:
Jan's best part to his striking is what? His (right, I think?) body kick? Luke's better there.

Jan loves to spend a ton of time grappling. Luke's better there. I kind of think it ends up with Jan trying to grapple, Luke obliging, and then proceeding to destroy him on the ground
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Left body kick, has a nice jab and some reasonable boxing but the kick finished guys like Latifi. But yeah Luke is way better in kick range and going against a southpaw will make it much harder to use. I expect Jan to be limited to using his boxing and trying to blitz in past kick range or he'll get chewed up.
 
Man, Jan always wants to grapple, too. Always. He's not bad at it, he's not great at it, but he always wants it. That's not going to work out well for him against Rockhold.
 
Oblivian said:
What % chance do people give Askren to get a finish? I'm honestly surprised to see his Not ITD line under -500. Masvidal has not been finished since 2009. I know Askren was getting finishes in One, but those opponents were much worse.
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I will be surprised if Askren gets the finish. Just a guess but Id give him a 10% chance to finish and 70% chance to win.
 
Askren likely won't even try to advance to a position where he can get a finish vs Mas. Let me explain:

He found out vs Robbie very quickly that the guys he's now fighting are much better and more dangerous than anyone he's fought (since Lima wasn't yet the guy he is now when Ben fought him). Which means with Ben's rudimentary striking it's even more imperative for him that he maintain top control once he secures the TD. Because by taking any chances of passing the guard and trying to move to side control, he's giving a seasoned vet and capable guy like Masvidal the opportunity to turn that into a scramble where he can get back to his feet. Ben can't afford that, and he and his camp likely know it.

So while it may not end up as exciting as Ben vs Robbie, odds are Ben will be very content to hold Jorge down (probably in half guard if he can get to that spot) and play it safe. Stay just busy enough not to get stood up but do relatively little damage.

I think @LEMONZEST is probably capping it close to where I would. 60-70% chance Askren wins, 10% he finishes.
 
I think Holly takes this.

She's not going to go in there with an idiotic gameplan like Cyborg.

It'll look a lot like Holly's fight with Miesha, but Nunes wont have the cardio to pull off a late sub like Miesha did.
 
Invictis said:
I think Holly takes this.

She's not going to go in there with an idiotic gameplan like Cyborg.

It'll look a lot like Holly's fight with Miesha, but Nunes wont have the cardio to pull off a late sub like Miesha did.
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Holly‘s gameplan of circling, hish hish left kick, jiggle ass and circle again gameplan will be surprising for Amanda. Cyborg countered her all night. Holm is overrated as fuck while Nunes is still somehow questioned. Nunes will beat her ass standing.

Amanda also does not need to sub her (which she could do). She has dynamite in her hands, amazing calf kicks and takedowns. The cardio thing is also overblown. We saw her in 5 rounds. If Holly wants to put on a super high pace, her face will look like a smashed tomato potentially even getting her flatlined. That chin can’t hold up forever at 37.
 
Holly‘s hish hish style is easy to prepare for as well. Cyborg countered her the whoooole fucking night. Only 19% of her significant strikes landed.

Nunes is not Ronda Rousey or fucking Miesha Tate lmao.

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Just gonna leave this one here. One finished every champion but Valentina, the other one has 2 wins in 2 years against Bethe & Megan Frauderson.

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Rickson said:
Holly‘s hish hish style is easy to prepare for as well. Cyborg countered her the whoooole fucking night. Only 19% of her significant strikes landed.

Nunes is not Ronda Rousey or fucking Miesha Tate lmao.

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No shit.

However I think that Nunes is being overvalued because of Cyborg's awful gameplan to stand and bang with her(I made money on Nunes, don't get me wrong).

Nunes isn't nearly as technical as Holly. The closest fighter to Holly that she has faced was an undersized Valentina, a fight that she barely won.

I don't think the cardio aspect is overblown. If Holly circles around her and makes Amanda cut off the cage and chase her, she WILL slow down.

Not to mention this weight cut is going to be brutal for Amanda. She fought most recently at 145, and after the fight she said herself she went on a bender for a week after.

Holly is disciplined and patient. I don't see her finishing Amanda, but Holly winning by decision is a higher possibility than what the odds reflect.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Branch never dropped him at 185, he just pressured forward and caught Luke a few times against the fence where Luke is bad technically and has that awful defence. Aside from the Vitor KO (which would of put down anyone), Rockholds other UFC losses, and problems with Branch, were all guys exploiting his defence, not him just having a weak chin.

How is his inability to raise his right hand and tuck his chin when going to dramatically improve by cutting less weight?
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Excuse me sir. What do I know anyway

I guess that’s why rockhold moved up to 205 so he could improve his defense.
 
This is just fucking insane. Easily one of the most underrated dominant fighters ever.

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