UFC 239 - Jones vs Santos

[TrueAscension]

Holly has shown 12 round stamina numerous times over the years. In fact, I'd go out of my way as a long time boxing fan to advocate for her stamina, it's always been pretty incredible, consistently so.

You can't imagine Nunes losing a lot of her explosiveness and venom after a few rounds, and the fight flaccidly limping on for a boring decision?

You think I am only talking about stamina. I am talking about getting hit viciously by the GOAT repeatedly. That will eventually wear Holm down.

Yes, I can see a lot of ways the fight pans out but if it gets to decision, I think Holm wins. Personally I'd love to see Holm headkick the shit out of Nunes

 

[TrueAscension]

You guys think Vera is going to finish this late notice guy Hernandez? Vera is one of those guys who you can see evolve on a fight to fight basis. Still over 26 and undoubtedly in his prime or close to it.

I've hit Vera ITD in several bouts now so I might be biased, one of my favorite fighters and one of my biggest "earners". What do you guys think? The number isn't great at something like -140 but I might parlay it with 2 other fights and try and hit that.

Yes

 

[Soccer Steve]

I'm going to one-up the Holm-Nunes GTD people by betting on Nunes by Unan. Decison at +350 as well. Holm gets herself into trouble more often but the Valentina fights are a similar style and we saw what happened there. 4-1 or 3-2 Nunes, or maybe a slight robbery in favour of the belt-holder, is what I'm expecting. Probably fairly bland too.

 

[Austisthunder]

Recency bias is affecting nunes hype imo, should win but Holly is tough, defensely sound, and with respectable counters, it should force Nunes to take this slow and steady, nunes by decision here

 

[LiquidNuke]

What do you retards think about Naurdiev finishing? It currently sits at +115. I like it.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Rockhold wins in round 3 +800

Could we see Rockhold getting to an exhausted Jan in the third? Jan historically has poor stamina and is always visibly blowing and straining in the third.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

The more I think about it, what does Jan really offer that threatens Rockhold?

If you look at Jan's entire career he consistently goes the distance with fighters that have terrible or subpar chins... Sokoudjou, 500 year old Houston Alexender, Jimi Manuwa 2x & Patrick Cummins... All of those guys have wet paper towel chins and they all went the distance with Jan. Hell, half the people on that list actually beat him!

I just don't think Jan has the hands to trouble Luke.

I don't see one area that Jan troubles Rockhold. Unless his defensive issues have gotten worse, and he comes in cockier than humanly possible, I suspect Jan plods around after him, gets beat up, tries to grapple, gets stuffed/reversed and finished.

I dont think anyone in the Top 15 @ LHW could be an easier matchup for Rockhold, off the top of my head

 

[LiquidNuke]

I don't see one area that Jan troubles Rockhold. Unless his defensive issues have gotten worse, and he comes in cockier than humanly possible, I suspect Jan plods around after him, gets beat up, tries to grapple, gets stuffed/reversed and finished.

I dont think anyone in the Top 15 @ LHW could be an easier matchup for Rockhold, off the top of my head

You fairly confident Rockhold gets it done ITD then? I mentioned it earlier, but if Jan is as gassed as he was in round 3 against Cummins he's definitely going to get finished. That was rough thing to watch from a once hyped supposed title challenger sort of guy...

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Recency bias is affecting nunes hype imo, should win but Holly is tough, defensely sound, and with respectable counters, it should force Nunes to take this slow and steady, nunes by decision here

What you mean with recency bias ? She has finished everyone but Valentina. It wasn’t just the Cyborg match.

Holly is also super hittable when she rushes in on good strikers. Just watch the Cyborg, GDR or Valentina fight. She couldn’t get anything going on in the Cyborg fight despite a few clinch exchanges. The leg kicks will slow down her movement as well. Holly is pure shit if she can’t circle and hish hish.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

You fairly confident Rockhold gets it done ITD then? I mentioned it earlier, but if Jan is as gassed as he was in round 3 against Cummins he's definitely going to get finished. That was rough thing to watch from a once hyped supposed title challenger sort of guy...

Look at the track record. He's finished nearly everyone he's beaten since Strikeforce. And there's better fighters than Blach in the list. He's also looking for a title shot, and obviously a decision win isn't going to help his case there.

I'm talking myself into putting more $ onto this fight haha

 

[LiquidNuke]

Going back to Diego for a second, people keep saying he's never been submitted as validation that it's not going to happen...

Thing is, up until a few years ago you could of also said he had also never been knocked out... but now age has really started to erode him he's been knocked out in the 1st round in 3 of his last 6 bouts... At this point, I don't think him getting clubbed and subbed or even just straight submitted by a larger and stronger guy would be a big surprise.. I really have a feeling Chisea is going to finish.

Just rewatched Chisea/Condit and liked what I saw. Chisea overpowers and dominates a legitimate 170 pounder in Carlos Condit. Takes him down three times in the first, starts the second round fresh with another takedown and quickly finishes with a brutal kimura that he finishes with one arm.

 

[Jordan3399]

@LiquidNuke I think the Kianzad line is way too wide. Favour her outright tbh. Really experienced, much cleaner striking and wrestling advantage. Avila is aggressive with some power but her striking technique is mediocre and she's been crushing cans, has some BJJ credentials but still only a purple belt the same as Kianzad and none of the wrestling needed to really get it going. In her last fight she had her opponent (a mediocre striker) badly hurt and still couldn't hit a basic double leg against the cage.

I like Kianzads outside boxing game in her past fights where she uses her lead hand well jabbing and cutting angles off her left hook which should cause a lot of problems for someone that likes to charge forward like Avila. I think she keeps the striking competitive on the outside and mixes in takedowns to get a decision here.

 

[Jordan3399]

Going back to Diego for a second, people keep saying he's never been submitted as validation that it's not going to happen...

Thing is, up until a few years ago you could of also said he had also never been knocked out... but now age has really started to erode him he's been knocked out in the 1st round in 3 of his last 6 bouts... At this point, I don't think him getting clubbed and subbed or even just straight submitted by a larger and stronger guy would be a big surprise.. I really have a feeling Chisea is going to finish.

Just rewatched Chisea/Condit and liked what I saw. Chisea overpowers and dominates a legitimate 170 pounder in Carlos Condit. Takes him down three times in the first, starts the second round fresh with another takedown and quickly finishes with a brutal kimura that he finishes with one arm.

Fair point on the age catching up with Diego but outwrestling Condit really means nothing tbh especially nowadays, he's a legit 170 pounder but he's always lacked any wrestling or physicality and his scrambling BJJ style always left him open to get caught in subs.

 

[Sadistics]

@LiquidNuke I think the Kianzad line is way too wide. Favour her outright tbh. Really experienced, much cleaner striking and wrestling advantage. Avila is aggressive with some power but her striking technique is mediocre and she's been crushing cans, has some BJJ credentials but still only a purple belt the same as Kianzad and none of the wrestling needed to really get it going. In her last fight she had her opponent (a mediocre striker) badly hurt and still couldn't hit a basic double leg against the cage.

I like Kianzads outside boxing game in her past fights where she uses her lead hand well jabbing and cutting angles off her left hook which should cause a lot of problems for someone that likes to charge forward like Avila. I think she keeps the striking competitive on the outside and mixes in takedowns to get a decision here.

Not disagreeing, just want to point out Avila recently got her brown belt.

Pannie has such an educated lead hand you'd think she was left handed fighting orthodox. She rarely strikes with her right, but when she does it's very sharp and accurate.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Why isn't this bout shown on sherdogs records for Julia Avila?

 

[LiquidNuke]

Fair point on the age catching up with Diego but outwrestling Condit really means nothing tbh especially nowadays, he's a legit 170 pounder but he's always lacked any wrestling or physicality and his scrambling BJJ style always left him open to get caught in subs.

Doesn't it tell us that Chisea is probably strong enough to physically dominate Sanchez in a wrestling contest?

 

[TrueAscension]

Recency bias is affecting nunes hype imo, should win but Holly is tough, defensely sound, and with respectable counters, it should force Nunes to take this slow and steady, nunes by decision here

"Recency bias" also would tell you that Ngannou smokes everyone, Gaethje destroys everyone, etc. There's nothing wrong with "recency bias."

I guess we will just see Saturday but BOL on your bet.

 

[Jordan3399]

Doesn't it tell us that Chisea is probably strong enough to physically dominate Sanchez in a wrestling contest?

Hard to tell, Sanchez has fought up to middleweight and Condit really is a relatively weak guy. Sanchez was fine grappling with a 200 pound Ellenberger in his recent grappling match so I think he can at least hold his own with Chiesa, not get ragdolled and keep it reasonably competitive throughout. My overall lean is a Chiesa dec where he clearly wins each round but has to work for it in the scrambles.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Hard to tell, Sanchez has fought up to middleweight and Condit really is a relatively weak guy. Sanchez was fine grappling with a 200 pound Ellenberger in his recent grappling match so I think he can at least hold his own with Chiesa, not get ragdolled and keep it reasonably competitive throughout. My overall lean is a Chiesa dec where he clearly wins each round but has to work for it in the scrambles.

Good stuff, thank you for the insight.

 

[LiquidNuke]

What do you guys think of Chance Rencountre? No sub finishes up until he avenged his loss to Justin Patterson with one, and now it's the only way he wins fights, lol. He's got good height but doesn't really utilize it, fights with his hands down and chin hanging out there... I think he gets finished at some point by zee' Austrian Wonderboy.