UFN 155 on ESPN+ 13 De Randamie vs Ladd Official Bets

Between DWTNCS, PFL, Bellator, AND Hearthstone this week, it was hard to watch as much tape as I would like for this card. However,

1u on GDR at +145
4.2u on Van Buren at -105
 
Sadistics said:
GDR +156 $400
GDR/Ladd U3.5 -140 $350

Simon -210 $1000

Emmett NSC +105 $205

Roberson -157 $850

Ferreira +155 $200

Moraes NSC -154 $232

Montano +163 $250

Van Buren +129 $1000

Liu -146 $1000

Morales -120 $700

In April I was about 20k from a 100k BR and tried to rush it. Had to relearn you can't rush/force growth in this game, I'm not much closer now than I was in April. I was looking back on the yearly recap/analytics thread and part of my post from 2017 really spoke to me,


Winning streaks have historically caused me to get reckless, when past results really shouldn't effect future plays, other than lessons learned.
Click to expand...
Who ya got on the Dubois vs Gorman fight?
 
And said:
2u De Randamie +147 to win 2.94u
2.67u GDR-Ladd U3.5 -133.5 to win 2u

1u Faber +300 to win 3u

1.5u Emmett +146 to win 2.19u
0.1u Emmett R3 +1600 to win 1.6u

4u Roberson -124 to win 3.23u

0.1u Vettori R3 +1400 to win 1.4u

1u Montaño +168 to win 1.68u

1u Elkins +100 to win 1u
0.1u Elkins R3 +2000 to win 2u

1u Martinez +180 to win 1.8u
0.1u Martinez R3 +2000 to win 2u

4u Van Buren +113 to win 4.52u
0.3u Souza ITD +455 to win 1.365u

1u Lopez +125 to win 1.25u
0.4u Lopez (SC=NA) +155 to win 0.67u
0.2u Lopez ITD +500 to win 1u

EDIT: Added Vettori R3
Click to expand...

2u De Randamie +147 to win 2.94u
2.67u GDR-Ladd U3.5 -133.5 to win 2u

1u Faber +300 to win 3u

1.5u Emmett +146 to win 2.19u
0.1u Emmett R3 +1600 to win 1.6u

4u Roberson -124 to win 3.23u

0.1u Vettori R3 +1400 to win 1.4u

1u Montaño +168 to win 1.68u

1u Elkins +100 to win 1u
0.1u Elkins R3 +2000 to win 2u

1u Martinez +180 to win 1.8u
0.1u Martinez R3 +2000 to win 2u

4u Van Buren +113 to win 4.52u
0.3u Souza ITD +455 to win 1.365u

1u Lopez +125 to win 1.25u
0.4u Lopez (SC=NA) +155 to win 0.67u
0.2u Lopez ITD +500 to win 1u

Result: +20.13u
 
Up a rather nice 21u tonight. Early livebet was great with lines like Lopez +600 after R2. Ended up reducing a lot of action late I should of probably kept but there you go. Congrats all.

Edit: Forgot a 1.33u play on the main events fight FDGTD so just under 22u.
 
Last edited:
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Between DWTNCS, PFL, Bellator, AND Hearthstone this week, it was hard to watch as much tape as I would like for this card. However,

1u on GDR at +145
4.2u on Van Buren at -105
Click to expand...

Perfect sweep, for a nice +5.45u night.

No opportunities to live-bet, between fights stopped in round 1, Dimes malfunctioning, and my girl having a health scare in the middle of Rodriguez-Allen fight that I thought would necessitate a trip to the hospital.

I'm okay with going a little lighter on the main event than most people; who knew Ladd would fight so stupidly, with seemingly zero preparation?

My really, really big regret is that I didn't quite finish watching tape for Martinez vs. Liu. I was really, really liking Martinez at any dog odds (I capped him as a roughly -150 to -200 favorite) and +185 was borderline max bet territory, but I didn't finish watching Liu's last fight, and I couldn't justify any bets without that homework.

Would have been an even better night otherwise.

Oh well. Next week looks incredible for betting. At least 4 fights I want to go heavy on already, in contrast to the past few weeks, and no Hearthstone to research anymore.
 
HeadsUpPoker said:
0 unit on GDR to profit 0,8U
2 units GDR +140 to profit 2,8u
1 unit extra after weigh in GDR +140 to profit 1,40u
1 unit extra after weigh in GDR ITD +275 to profit 2,75U
1U Vince Morales +165 to profit 1,65u
1u Julianna Pena -172 to profit 0,58u
Click to expand...

Looking better and better with the prebetting. I also dont regret the Vince Morales bet, as he was definately worth it at +165 and should have got the nod imo.

Total loss/profit: 7,33u

Was a nice circle jerk this time.
 
Bastaille said:
GDR 250$ to win 350$

Elkins 450$ to win 400

Simon 3k to win 1080$

Van buren 220$ to win 260$

Roberson 200$ to win 114$

Fili 250$ to win 325$

Good luck guys!
Click to expand...

-2310$, so tilted from Simon losing to faber. Need to regroup, went from a 35k roll to 27k in about a month. Unreal. Going down with my unit size, not more than 1k for the next couple of months.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Up a rather nice 21u tonight. Early livebet was great with lines like Lopez +600 after R2. Ended up reducing a lot of action late I should of probably kept but there you go. Congrats all.
Click to expand...

You got live bet on the early prelims? What site offers that?
 
nebulousned said:
$50 on GDR to return $115.
Click to expand...
i went to the pub yesterday cause i wanted to double this to $100 but i got cold feet and put $5 on GDR to ko to return $18 (the only time ive risked more than 50 on a fighter was nunes last week) (commented this on the other thread before the fight started)

so risked $55 got $133 - very happy with that!
 
I did okay tonight, I should have put like $100 on the Emmett, Faber and De Randamie team. I felt like they were money for sure. It is nice to win this much on my birthday though. Below is just a few of my parlays.
upload_2019-7-13_22-27-38-png.616115
 
GDR ML - 0u for 0.95u
GDR ML - 7.5u for 10.2u
GDR Rd 3 - 0.13u for 2.63u
GDR Rd 4 - 0.13u for 4.25u
GDR Rd 5 - 0.13u for 5.13u
Simon ML - 7.5u for 2.76u
Van Buren ML - 4u for 3.73u
Van Buren Round 3 - 0.13u for 2.5u
Emmet NSC - 3u for 2.3u
Pingyuan ML - 3u for 2u
Pingyuan Submission - 0.5u for 3.75u
Fili ML - 2u for 2.4u
Moraes NSC - 3.76u for 2.07u
Elkins ML - 2u for 2u
Roberson ML - 3u for 1.48u
Montano ML - 1.5u for 2.33
Pena Decision - 1.83u for 2.01u

4.29u

Wow, so according to the old spreadsheet I won 15.13u on live betting (and a couple late add-ons) bringing it to an awesome 19.42u for the evening.

Jordan3399 said:
Up a rather nice 21u tonight. Early livebet was great with lines like Lopez +600 after R2. Ended up reducing a lot of action late I should of probably kept but there you go. Congrats all.
Click to expand...
Nah, this just isn't possible. He's lying.
 
Sadistics said:
GDR +156 $400
GDR/Ladd U3.5 -140 $350

Simon -210 $1000

Emmett NSC +105 $205

Roberson -157 $850

Ferreira +155 $200

Moraes NSC -154 $232

Montano +163 $250

Van Buren +129 $1000

Liu -146 $1000

Morales -120 $700

In April I was about 20k from a 100k BR and tried to rush it. Had to relearn you can't rush/force growth in this game, I'm not much closer now than I was in April. I was looking back on the yearly recap/analytics thread and part of my post from 2017 really spoke to me,


Winning streaks have historically caused me to get reckless, when past results really shouldn't effect future plays, other than lessons learned.
Click to expand...

-$2103. Uggh, any loss less than 5u I can swallow no problem, but it's the inconsistency lately. Been bouncing between 20k-23k profit this year since I hit 20k. Didn't help that I chased a bit on Rodriguez -190 after round 2.

While keeping stakes lower with no bet bigger than 2u saved me a devastating loss, it still lead to a loss. I've known for a while being so loose betting the majority of fights isn't the best approach, but think I have to finally take action. Simon, Roberson, and Liu were bad bets and not only in hindsight, I just seem to have a problem with passing after taping for hours. Stylistically Simon and Roberson had bad matchups, and Liu just looked bad on tape, but I stupidly thought his physicality would get it done.

Anyway a few thoughts going forward, go into tape looking to bet the dog, and fucking pass more.
 
Sadistics said:
-$2103. Uggh, any loss less than 5u I can swallow no problem, but it's the inconsistency lately. Been bouncing between 20k-23k profit this year since I hit 20k. Didn't help that I chased a bit on Rodriguez -190 after round 2.

While keeping stakes lower with no bet bigger than 2u saved me a devastating loss, it still lead to a loss. I've known for a while being so loose betting the majority of fights isn't the best approach, but think I have to finally take action. Simon, Roberson, and Liu were bad bets and not only in hindsight, I just seem to have a problem with passing after taping for hours. Stylistically Simon and Roberson had bad matchups, and Liu just looked bad on tape, but I stupidly thought his physicality would get it done.

Anyway a few thoughts going forward, go into tape looking to bet the dog, and fucking pass more.
Click to expand...
That sucks hopefully things turn around next week for you. Really appreciate your Buren call it was spot on!
 
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