International Brexit Discussion v9: The Last Extension

Fair enough. Either way, that is the only 'simple solution' to the Irish part of the Brexit problem, but it isn't going to happen not because of the EU intransigence, but because of the UK.

Yeap, the subtext of not signing up to a legal commitment would seem to be that the plan is to screw over Ireland. But then that makes no sense as no EU/US trade deals so Brexit is a failure before it starts.

Unless the plan is there is no plan and we'll sort it out later unicorns. Equally scary way to run a country.
 
Britain's Boris Johnson Appeals To EU To Drop 'Irish Backstop' Demand
August 20, 2019



British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has appealed to the European Union to scrap a deal forged by his predecessor that's aimed at preventing the reestablishment of a hard border between Britain's Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state, as a precondition for any Brexit deal.

In a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk, Johnson asks for the removal of a "backstop" agreement negotiated by former Prime Minister Theresa May, who stepped down last month.

Tusk quickly dismissed the idea, saying via Twitter, "The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found."

And in a pointed reference to Johnson himself, Tusk suggested that the new prime minister made his request about the backstop because he's in favor of cutting off the free flow of trade and goods across the border.

"Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support reestablishing a border," Tusk said. "Even if they do not admit it."

Tusks' response is "a reaction that we share," European Commission spokesperson Natasha Bertaud said at a midday news conference.

Shortly afterward, Johnson issued a tweet of his own, aiming at critics of his Brexit plans.

"The referendum result must be respected," Johnson said, reiterating a position he has long embraced. "We will leave the EU on 31st October."

The backstop is part of a draft divorce deal with the EU that has already been rejected three times by Parliament, but Brussels has insisted that the provision be part of any new deal.

Under the plan, Britain would enter a transition period once Brexit occurs, which is currently set for Oct. 31. After that date — and potentially until the end of 2022 — Britain would remain in the EU's single market and customs union if no deal for an open Irish border can be forged.

With the backstop, Northern Ireland would continue to operate under the EU's rules — meaning that goods arriving there from elsewhere in the U.K. would have to be checked to see if they meet European standards. Without the backstop, there would be a "hard border" between the two parts of Ireland, with Northern Ireland operating under the U.K.'s rules and the Republic of Ireland retaining separate EU customs and trading rules. That could seriously hamper a thriving trade between the two. It could also disrupt the island's ongoing peace process.

In Britain, the backstop is anathema to hard-line Brexiteers. And if it remains as a precondition for a deal with the EU, the likelihood of such a withdrawal agreement being approved by the deadline is slim, at best.

Johnson and his allies insist that the border issues can be sorted out without the backstop. In the letter, he calls for "flexible and creative solutions" and "alternative arrangements" that rely on technology to overcome the border obstacles.

Johnson called the backstop "anti-democratic and inconsistent with the sovereignty of the U.K. as a state" but also pledged to work in good faith toward a deal absent the backstop.

"You have my personal commitment that this government will work with energy and determination to achieve an agreement. That is our highest priority," Johnson wrote.

Discussing Johnson's request, Bertaud said, "the letter does not provide a legal operational solution to prevent the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland, it does not set out what any alternative arrangements could be. And in fact it recognizes that there is no guarantee that such arrangements will be in place by the end of the transitional period."

The prime minister's letter came a day after details of a U.K. government study were published by The Sunday Times that paints a disturbing picture of the consequences of a no-deal Brexit.

The study warns of fuel, food and medicine shortages, and a "three-month meltdown at [British] ports," the newspaper reports.

Code-named Operation Yellowhammer, the report was reportedly compiled by the Cabinet Office this month.

However, Michael Gove, the minister tasked with planning for a no-deal Brexit, insists that the information in the report is old. He also says that planning for a crash exit from the EU has been stepped up in the weeks since Johnson became prime minister.

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/20/7526...n-appeals-to-eu-to-drop-irish-backstop-demand
 
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Pretty obvious what is happening. BJ is preparing the scapegoat narrative (or the Dolchstoßlegende / stab-in-the-back myth).

If shit goes downhill, and it will, he wants the EU to be the guilty party in UK public opinion. The UK public is the actual audience for his letter to the EU.
 
Brexit: UK to end EU freedom of movement immediately in no-deal scenario
By Rebecca Staudenmaier | August 20, 2019



The British government on Monday said it will end European Union freedom of movement rules immediately in the event of a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

The move is a departure from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, who had said the government would end free movement "as soon as possible" if the UK left the EU without a withdrawal deal, suggesting the rules could be phased out.

The Home Office said in a statement on Monday: "We are leaving the EU on 31 October come what may. This will mean that freedom of movement as it currently stands will end on 31 October when the UK leaves the EU."

What does this mean for EU citizens living in the UK?

For the more than 3 million EU residents in the UK, an immediate end to freedom of movement raises serious concerns. The British government has said that EU citizens are welcome to stay, but is encouraging them to register for a program called the EU Settlement Scheme.

The government says the program grants EU residents a status that will ensure they can remain in the UK and can continue to work or study. It also says it will ensure access to health care and public benefits.

To apply, residents must prove their identity, show that they are currently living in the UK and declare any criminal convictions.

Although freedom of movement is set to end on October 31, EU citizens still have until December 31, 2020, to apply for the program — as long as they were UK residents by this year's departure date.

Despite the government's assurances that the program does not leave EU residents in "legal limbo" and grants them time to apply, citizens' rights activists have raised doubts about the execution of the program.

In a phone call with the EU Settlement Scheme office helpline, activist and former Change UK candidate Nora Mulready said she was told that EU citizens would have difficulty reentering the UK if they hadn't applied by the Brexit departure date.

Those who hadn't applied "would no longer be entitled to [freedom of movement] rights to live and work and be in Britain," she said the office told her.

What about people traveling to work or study?

EU citizens will still be allowed to visit the UK for vacation or for short trips, the Home Office statement said. The previous government put a cap on short visits at three months.

The immediate end to freedom of movement, however, would mean changes in the arrangements for people coming to the UK for work, to study or to stay for longer periods of time.

The British government has not elaborated on what those changes would be, saying that details of changes to the immigration system are still being developed and will be announced "shortly."

https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-uk-to-...nt-immediately-in-no-deal-scenario/a-50090564
 
Brits lose all rights to mock americans for electing george bush jr or trump from now on. This idiot tries to project an image of loveable buffon but is really an old money wayyy far right tory .....brexit combined with this idiot is a perfect storm to fuck the uk up

he wasn't elected into power by the general public. He's Theresa May's successor and Unfortunately voted in by other members of the party.
 
Pretty obvious what is happening. BJ is preparing the scapegoat narrative (or the Dolchstoßlegende / stab-in-the-back myth).

If shit goes downhill, and it will, he wants the EU to be the guilty party in UK public opinion. The UK public is the actual audience for his letter to the EU.

Uh-huh. And if shit goes downhill you want the UK to be the scape goat. You have been on that agenda for months.

And?
 
LOL...

Boris is threatening the scorched earth scenario if he doesn't get his way...

I need to refill my popcorn! :)
 
he wasn't elected into power by the general public. He's Theresa May's successor and Unfortunately voted in by other members of the party.
True but he got there....which is a glaring insight into how broken the uks democractic system has become
 
Uh-huh. And if shit goes downhill you want the UK to be the scape goat. You have been on that agenda for months.

And?

wha? UK are the bumbling idiots who can't get their shit together and you think it's the EU who's at fault? lol
 
LOL...

Boris is threatening the scorched earth scenario if he doesn't get his way...

I need to refill my popcorn! :)

Who knows, sometimes people needs a dose of reality that there are plenty of misery to go around to get them to sit down again.

It's going to be amusing if Boris' ultimatum would ends up extracting more concessions out of the E.U than Theresa May ever did, as they slowly came to realize that the spectre of No Deal is ineffective against this guy with funny hair, and despite the detractors keep saying that the EU "hold all the cards", some members of the EU now suddenly came to the realization that they might actually suffer a hell lot more than the Brits when it comes down to No Deal.

I don't think popcorn is enough for this theatrical performance, so I got beef jerky and beer as well. :cool:
 
Who knows, sometimes people needs a dose of reality that there are plenty of misery to go around to get them to sit down again.

It's going to be amusing if Boris' ultimatum would ends up extracting more concessions out of the E.U than Theresa May ever did, as they slowly came to realize that the spectre of No Deal is ineffective against this guy with funny hair, and despite the detractors keep saying that the EU "hold all the cards", some members of the EU now suddenly came to the realization that they might actually suffer a hell lot more than the Brits when it comes down to No Deal.

I don't think popcorn is enough for this theatrical performance, so I got beef jerky and beer as well. :cool:

I highly doubt that EU will give any concessions.

The ones that are really going to be hurting is UK. EU will be hurt but it won't be nearly as much as what UK will experience. So it's on UK to help themselves more. EU is ready for this Brexit. UK isn't apparently...
 
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Who knows, sometimes people needs a dose of reality that there are plenty of misery to go around to get them to sit down again.

It's going to be amusing if Boris' ultimatum would ends up extracting more concessions out of the E.U than Theresa May ever did, as they slowly came to realize that the spectre of No Deal is ineffective against this guy with funny hair, and despite the detractors keep saying that the EU "hold all the cards", some members of the EU now suddenly came to the realization that they might actually suffer a hell lot more than the Brits when it comes down to No Deal.

I don't think popcorn is enough for this theatrical performance, so I got beef jerky and beer as well. :cool:

I don't really see what it is the EU could offer that hasn't already been on the table. Do you?

Germany will lose out in case of Brexit, but we stand much more to lose if the EU crumbles. Therefore a united EU (and Eurozone, at that) is much more important for us. Merkel certainly is much more sympathetic to a soft approach than, say, Macron. But the Boris way of doing things is not going to lead anywhere.

The real leverage the UK has is on the Irish border. What if they just leave it open? Then the EU will have to close it and introduce controls and fences. The pictures will hurt in public opinion, and maybe he will succeed in shifting blame for the failure to the EU. But again: what do you think the EU might offer it has not already? A customs union? The May deal (which Boris voted for)?

Everything Boris Johnson is doing seems directed at a domestic audience, whether his goal is to get a head start for elections in case of a no confidence vote or to establish the proper narrative in case he manages to get the no deal exit. Because about what should the EU negotiate? The UK has not said what it is it wants, neither under May nor under BJ.

Edit: and in that sense, UK politics haven't changed that much under BJ. May's travels to the EU in early 2019 were completely comical and nonsensical and only were intended to show that she tried.
 
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I don't really see what it is the EU could offer that hasn't already been on the table. Do you?

The good news is, all we gotta do now is sit back and enjoy our snacks and beer from now until Oct 31st and see if the current stand of "Theresa May's Deal or No Deal" is going to change at all in two months time.

And boy, if Boris somehow be able to pull an alternative solution to the Irish backstop out of his cake hole, that feat oughta be on par with 1966.
 
The good news is, all we gotta do now is sit back and enjoy our snacks and beer from now until Oct 31st and see if the current stand of "Theresa May's Deal or No Deal" is going to change at all in two months time.

And boy, if Boris somehow be able to pull an alternative solution to the Irish backstop out of his cake hole, that feat oughta be on par with 1966.


Should be easy, given the existing and proven solutions.
 
The good news is, all we gotta do now is sit back and enjoy our snacks and beer from now until Oct 31st and see if the current stand of "Theresa May's Deal or No Deal" is going to change at all in two months time.


Merkel just gave him 30 days to deliver.
 
The ones that are really going to be hurting is UK. EU will be hurt but it won't be nearly as much as what UK will experience. So it's on UK to help themselves more. EU is ready for this Brexit. UK isn't apparently...

As I have already mentioned this two years ago: I absolutely despise how so many people on the either side of the English channel were gunning for this to be an ugly and acrimonious divorce from the start of the negotiation, when they could have easily frame this as a the establishment of a new and fruitful economic partnership between independent allies, without the dreaded "ever-closer union" aspiration.

From the very the beginning, politicians were already grand-standing about who gonna be suffering more - as if that's something to be proud of, instead of how everyone can benefit from the new arrangement, and that poisoned well is still where they all are drinking from now.

On the scale of "hurting" in a No Deal scanario, the E.U as a collective will hurt the least because of their size, followed by Britain, but the biggest victims will be the smaller individual members of the E.U, particularly those who depends on the Freedom of Movement as human labor and remittance make up much of their economic output, or those who greatly relies on British investments, or those who counts Britain as one of their biggest - if not the biggest - export destination for their products.

Incidentally, they are also the voices that no one can hear, as everyone only pay attention to what the big guys demands. All you're going to see in news headlines are either Boris Johnson, or Merkel, or Macron. If someone were to ask "which individual European countries will suffer the most", I doubt many people can even get in the same ballpark, because those smaller countries' suffering don't matter in the grand scheme of things, not really.

Here's a good place to start if anyone want to see actual maps of which E.U members in each sector will be affected the most:


Where Europe Would Be Hurt Most by a No-Deal Brexit
By ALLISON MCCANN, MILAN SCHREUER and AMIE TSANG

Danger_brexit.jpg
By most accounts, Britain's economy would be hammered if it crashed out of the European Union without a deal.

But the impact would also be painful for the 27 remaining member states in the European Union. Even though the bloc is a single market, each country has a unique relationship with Britain as far as the movement of goods, services, people and capital.

The regions most exposed to a no-deal Brexit would experience issues ranging from disruptions in trade to costly tariffs to fragmented supply chains and restrictions on services.

In the political negotiations, the Europeans have the stronger position. But experts agree that hardly anyone wins if a withdrawal deal isn’t struck – and some countries could lose quite badly.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/07/world/europe/brexit-impact-on-european-union.html


Where Brexit will hurt most in Europe
Exposure of different regions within the EU to Brexit varies greatly between and within countries.
By Jacopo Barigazzi

GettyImages-891628172-1160x772.jpg

The impact of Brexit will vary considerably across the European Union, with some regions bracing for severe costs and others less exposed.

That's the message from data collected by the EU's Committee of the Regions on the predicted local economic and cultural fallout of the U.K.'s departure from the bloc. The document, made up of questionnaire responses submitted by local officials and obtained by POLITICO, reveals a detailed and diverse patchwork.

The 72-page document compiled for the EU's assembly of regional and local representatives includes submissions from 42 regions, municipalities, provinces and national delegations. Among the biggest concerns are the impact of Brexit on future trade, agriculture, fisheries, citizens returning from the U.K. and cuts to the EU budget post Brexit.

https://www.politico.eu/article/bre...s-revealed-by-eu-report-phase-2-negotiations/
 
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Everything Boris Johnson is doing seems directed at a domestic audience, whether his goal is to get a head start for elections in case of a no confidence vote or to establish the proper narrative in case he manages to get the no deal exit. Because about what should the EU negotiate? The UK has not said what it is it wants, neither under May nor under BJ.

Borris' bluster betrays the weakness of his position in Westminster. He has zero room to negotiate as he has no power to push any deal through the DUP/Tory hard leavers/Tory remainers.

What he needs is a general election where he can massively improve his own position through deselecting rebels and grabbing seats from the frankly unelectable Corbyn who will have the lib dems snapping at his heals from the other side.

He can't call a GE immediately without betraying his own supporter base. Best case for Borris is that the remain camp force an extension, he can then clean up vs the split opposition, he can then push through whatever deal he wants, probably screwing NI.

Guess the backup is going for a no deal and hoping the leaving high outweighs the issues.
 
If I'm the UK, i'm doing heavy backchannels right now to Italy, Poland, Hungary, etc....

The easiest solution, to me, for them if they can't get Financial Passporting rights is to have other countries leave the EU and simply force it to fold

I mean the Italian PM did just resign,......
 
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