UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

Rebel_LioN said:
Solo cast, again did it late last night at like 2am, voice cracking a bit. I’ve been off my game a bit I haven’t focused on MMA as much as I used to since COVID. Half assed breakdown but here are my initial thoughts:

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- Leo Santos ML and I believe he can finish
- Raulian Paiva ML
- Alex Volk ML, not happy with price
- Masvidal ML, many other forms of Mas like his points handicap when that releases.
- Aldo ML for value sake, have some bets on the o2.5 at -120 already but current price is no good to me.
- Rose ML
- Volkan Oezdemir, I think he can finish
- O2.5 for Zaleski/Salikhov, small
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great stuff man, we have an identical read on the leonardo santos fight.
 
I fancy masvidal as a dog. Do we think the odds will get shorter or go out more as the fight gets closer ? Not sure if should take him now or wait.
 
Tirimasuperman said:
I kind of don't think most of you have watched Masvidal fight since everyone is basically saying Usman wet blankets him

7 years ago Masvidal fought Rustam Khabilov and never looked troubled in the ground game, avoiding near every takedown with ease and getting right back to his feet on the couple of occasions Khabilov actually got him down. That was 7 years ago and he's trained with Colby almost the entire time since. Yes Maia was able to have success in the ground game v Masvidal, but Maia has an obscene submission threat while I'm not sure Usman has ever actually choked somebody out. The danger of an Usman wrestlefuck is being heavily overstated here. Yeah his cardio is a concern, yeah his power is a concern if Masvidal is worried about defending the takedown (which could be a concern early, but by round 3 v Khabilov he was spamming flying knees lmfao), but it seems pretty unlikely Usman just grinds him out to a decision like y'all seem convinced he's destined too

Moreover, Masvidal absolutely has sharp boxing, but the most underrated thing about him is his body kicks. Guy may be the only one who can actually cause Usman to gas

It's also not like he isn't ready for Usman. He may not have had a camp so may not be in perfect physical condition, but the guy has been prepping to fight Usman ever since he beat Nate

I'm not saying Masvidal should be the favourite, but the odds should be much closer to evens than they are so I'm big on Masvidal at current prices
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I like the analysis here but there's a lot of flaws in what you are saying. Firstly, who has better top control Usman or Maia? Consider that. Secondly, Usman doesn't need to choke him out to win just LnP and he can get a W. Third, body kicks? Against a wrestler its a very risky strategy and if he does attempt them I believe it will give Usman the takedowns. Finally, hasn't been training with Colby in a couple years now meaning he may have regressed with his wrestling defence.
 
'Suga Daddy' said:
I like the analysis here but there's a lot of flaws in what you are saying. Firstly, who has better top control Usman or Maia? Consider that. Secondly, Usman doesn't need to choke him out to win just LnP and he can get a W. Third, body kicks? Against a wrestler its a very risky strategy and if he does attempt them I believe it will give Usman the takedowns. Finally, hasn't been training with Colby in a couple years now meaning he may have regressed with his wrestling defence.
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Usman doesn't really defend kicks though, at all. So him catching Masvidals kicks all of a sudden seems unlikely.
Regarding Masvidal trainingspartners, lately he has been training with a top wrestler in Bo Nickal.
 
DevilsAvocado said:
Respect for providing arguments and an original pick for this bout, it won't surprise you that I think you're plain wrong but I'll donate $1k to a charity of your choice if you're right on this one. Good luck
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To be fair, I'd never advocate putting more than 10 units on this prop. And probably just 6 or 7 makes sense to stay safe and conservative.;)
 
Hey guys, new to the forum - longtime lurker first post.

Question, is the consensus on PVZ this weekend that she loses by decision and she has no shot at all? We know she hasn't fought in some time but one thing we can't account for is potential improvement in her game from having been gone so long. She looks like she's in shape and taking this seriously, and we know unless she wins - there won't be a raise that she's looking for from the UFC in the form of a new contract. I have a hard time believing this fight is so cut and dry as the odds would make it seem and she's not looking to make this a fight.

Am I missing something or maybe looking for something that isn't there? Ribas is good yes, but currently -8XX to -9XX good? This is borderline saying PVZ has no chance whatsoever in there? Right?
 
'Suga Daddy' said:
I like the analysis here but there's a lot of flaws in what you are saying. Firstly, who has better top control Usman or Maia? Consider that. Secondly, Usman doesn't need to choke him out to win just LnP and he can get a W. Third, body kicks? Against a wrestler its a very risky strategy and if he does attempt them I believe it will give Usman the takedowns. Finally, hasn't been training with Colby in a couple years now meaning he may have regressed with his wrestling defence.
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The different between Maia and Usman is that with Maia you have to be far more careful in your getting up approach because of the risk of having your back taken/being choked out. Usman is obviously better in top control, but you have more margin for error with the way you attempt to get up than you do with Maia. Their ground games aren't really comparable purely because they're so different (and most of Maia's success against Masvidal was on his back anyway)

Usman's ground game is far closer to Khabilov's, which Masvidal had no respect for (he basically didn't get taken down, and when he did went to the Derrick Lewis school of 'just stand up')

With a slow body kick there's that takedown risk sure, but Masvidal's are snappy and he doesn't exactly telegraph them. In saying that he spent the entire third round throwing flying knees at Khabilov - I doubt he's actually scared of Usman's wrestling and based on the skillset he's displayed I'm not really sure he needs to be

He's been training with Yoel and Bo Nickal, I highly doubt his defensive wrestling has regressed lmfao (and it's not THAT long ago that Colby training with him at ATT)
 
How does Masvidal win? I'd like him to KO Marty as much as anyone but I feel like there's basically no chance.

Usman is bigger, stronger, full camp, very solid chin, striking isn't bad (looks basic but it's quite effective), and he's willing to hug legs for 25 minutes to get the W.

There's nothing stopping him from bullying Masvidal against the cage/on the floor for 25 minutes if he has to.

How much does Masvidal have in the tank? It's possible that a first round of heavy grappling from Usman could drain Masvidal to the point of getting stopped in the later rounds.
 
XociDe said:
How does Masvidal win? I'd like him to KO Marty as much as anyone but I feel like there's basically no chance.

Usman is bigger, stronger, full camp, very solid chin, striking isn't bad (looks basic but it's quite effective), and he's willing to hug legs for 25 minutes to get the W.

There's nothing stopping him from bullying Masvidal against the cage/on the floor for 25 minutes if he has to.

How much does Masvidal have in the tank? It's possible that a first round of heavy grappling from Usman could drain Masvidal to the point of getting stopped in the later rounds.
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His PTV is Usman leaving his chin open like he's been prone to doing. Masvidal has shown he can crack, though Usman has shown a good chin to be fair.

That said, maybe Whitman shores up some of Usman's defensive holes.

As for Usman being able to just grapple to a win...well...the only thing I'd say is that there's a reason his line is now over -300 LOL. That's a pretty sizeable favorite, right?
 
Tirimasuperman said:
The different between Maia and Usman is that with Maia you have to be far more careful in your getting up approach because of the risk of having your back taken/being choked out. Usman is obviously better in top control, but you have more margin for error with the way you attempt to get up than you do with Maia. Their ground games aren't really comparable purely because they're so different (and most of Maia's success against Masvidal was on his back anyway)

Usman's ground game is far closer to Khabilov's, which Masvidal had no respect for (he basically didn't get taken down, and when he did went to the Derrick Lewis school of 'just stand up')

With a slow body kick there's that takedown risk sure, but Masvidal's are snappy and he doesn't exactly telegraph them. In saying that he spent the entire third round throwing flying knees at Khabilov - I doubt he's actually scared of Usman's wrestling and based on the skillset he's displayed I'm not really sure he needs to be

He's been training with Yoel and Bo Nickal, I highly doubt his defensive wrestling has regressed lmfao (and it's not THAT long ago that Colby training with him at ATT)
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Wrestling has dominated this sport for the last few years. We see guys with D1 credentials, guys with D2, guys with Olympic medals, guys like GSP who had none of the above.

But the fact remains. If you can wrestle you can dictate where the fight takes place. Maia gassed and still got Masvidal in terrible situations with ugly single leg shots. Now has Masvidal improved since then? Well I genuinely hope so, but you can only improve so much. And that also discounts Usman not improving at the same time.

Is Usman fights smart this is his fight to lose there is no way about it. Usman wont gas until later on (if that) and he can absorb punishment and still put out punishment (as we saw vs Colby).

If Usman gets Masvidal down for 2 rounds I dont even think Masvidal will have the power in rounds 3-5 for a KO although I could be wrong
 
MikeK1989 said:
Wrestling has dominated this sport for the last few years. We see guys with D1 credentials, guys with D2, guys with Olympic medals, guys like GSP who had none of the above.

But the fact remains. If you can wrestle you can dictate where the fight takes place. Maia gassed and still got Masvidal in terrible situations with ugly single leg shots. Now has Masvidal improved since then? Well I genuinely hope so, but you can only improve so much. And that also discounts Usman not improving at the same time.

Is Usman fights smart this is his fight to lose there is no way about it. Usman wont gas until later on (if that) and he can absorb punishment and still put out punishment (as we saw vs Colby).

If Usman gets Masvidal down for 2 rounds I dont even think Masvidal will have the power in rounds 3-5 for a KO although I could be wrong
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Maia got Masvidal in terrible situations because Masvidal had to worry about protecting his neck (and other limbs). He doesn't have that same fear with Kamaru. They're incomparable situations
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Wait was Masvidal actually drinking a beer on the way to Abu Dhabi?


www.instagram.com/p/CCUH62wpNhx/?igshid=1xwl8nr2f7s2k
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I doubt it, he seems like more of a hard liquor guy to me lol. I'd guess it was either sparkling water or he just wanted a glamour shot. I bet a few fighters probably had a glass of that in flight champagne they offered on embedded though.

I am curious to see Usman on the scale. He said he stuffed his face for a day when Burns got pulled. He is a huge WW already and I doubt all the travel does him any favors.
 
Does anyone know what kind of take down Usman favors? I thought he was more of a slow pressure fighter who creeps towards you to push you against the fence so he can drag you down? I don't believe he's launching power doubles like GSP did. Masvidal could win this with lateral movement and clipping Usman with punches + threat of one of those fucking flying knees if Usman ducks down for a TD.

* i hope he pulls a flying dick kick
 


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