UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

[ill800]

Of course I think she is gonna win, but -750 is a line I wouldn't ever bet for a mma fight.
There seemed to be value on "Not Worthy by submission" at -9250 too...
What were the live odds that rocked, almost tkoed and mounted Greene was going to submit Villante? Shit happens...

You had nunes vs Spencer where nunes at one point was as low as -400. That’s incredible value. I had nunes capped at about -2400. I saw very few scenarios in which Spencer would win.

I see very few scenarios at which Pvz beats ribas. Not as slim as Spencer vs nunes, but I’d be willing to bet $500 at -750.

if you have some kind of rule against chalk, that’s understandable, but when talking about value and implied probability, -750 really isn’t that much of a stretch.

 

[TrueAscension]

with my luck PVZ gonna KO Ribas and the rest of the picks will hit

All favorites what could go wrong

 

[Ballsaque]

Using bonuses anywhere is pretty much a very dumb thing to do.

Bonusses are a big part of your edge as a gambler, not using them would be a very stupid thing to do. However, not reading the fine print while using them, is an even stupider thing to do.

 

[t6p]

Did you actually watch that fight? It was a pretty flukey slip and she’s improved quite a bit since then.


Obviously anything can happen, and we cap these things happening at certain percentages. I think Paige has a 10% chance to win, maybe an arm bar from guard.

Therefore I cap her at -1000, and there’s value on the current line indicating that I should probably max bet the line at 5 units

If you're saying that you give Ribas a 90% chance to win, that would mean that you cap her at -900. The current line of -750 implies an 88.2% probability that she wins, for a difference of 1.8%. Everyone has different betting strategies, but in my opinion that difference wouldn't warrant a bet.

 

[Sono07]

After watching Jiri's last 4 fights I'd recommend them, at least for anyone who needs a laugh. I think the former Rizin champ is getting a little too much respect from the odds makers. Average age of the last 3 opponents he "KOed" is about 38.

He spent most of those fights getting his lead leg blasted with kicks before his opponents fell over from old age. Aside from athleticism I don't really see what he has going for him. I think he is KO or bust and Volkan has taken harder shots from much better strikers. The 205 champ Dominic Reyes included (yeah I said it)

I can see people saying Volkan lost to Rakic but I thought he dictated the pace enough to earn the split. All I'm saying is Jiri's record probably has twice the padding of a Max Holloway Zoom class

 

[ill800]

If you're saying that you give Ribas a 90% chance to win, that would mean that you cap her at -900. The current line of -750 implies an 88.2% probability that she wins, for a difference of 1.8%. Everyone has different betting strategies, but in my opinion that difference wouldn't warrant a bet.

Yea I haven’t bet the ml, but I didn’t remember the percentages as well as I thought so maybe no max bet there lol

 

[mkess101]

If you're saying that you give Ribas a 90% chance to win, that would mean that you cap her at -900. The current line of -750 implies an 88.2% probability that she wins, for a difference of 1.8%. Everyone has different betting strategies, but in my opinion that difference wouldn't warrant a bet.

This is doubly true when talking about a multi leg parlay like what that guy has. You are not adding much profit by having it as a leg in a 6 or 7 leg parlay with those odds. And if a fluke happens and PVZ wins and you hit all the other legs...

There is a psychological aspect to betting that people don't take into account. Yes, the best bettors put emotion aside and don't get too high or low with wins and losses. But barring a VERY select few, most cannot fully remove emotion from it. We are human. The psychological cost/benefit of having at -750 fighter in a 6 leg parlay with a bunch of -1xx and -2xx totally skews toward cost.

Do I think Ribas steamrolls PVZ? Yep, sure do. Would I add her to that parlay? Hell no at -750.

 

[Kazda1]

I might have missed it somewhere in the thread, but does anyone have a lean one way or the other on the Tybura/Grishin fight?

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

What is the concensus here for parlays in general? Do people feel it adds value, is it worth it or only under special conditions? Some people like adding a couple favs for dog odds, some oogs together, some one dog, many favs, some long multi parlays, and some mixed with props etc.

One thing I often hear is the debate whether or not a parlay can generate value. Because you get more units, even though of course its the same as if you had rolled over.
One thing parlays does do at least is it locks in the odds you got + can be good for limits.

One thing one can do is to simulate whether you had put them in a parlay or not. A parlay just like a fighter can be calculated, and often this really puts things into perspective. I´ve sometimes had parlays i thought were amazing but when i realize they only should hit maybe 30-40% of the time, suddenly you don´t want to put too much on it. I think people really lack this - they don´t calculate the percentage chance of that parlay hitting. Both the indicated hit chance, and what they believe, thats very important imo. Like if you have some fighters and the odds indicate that fighter A has 60% chance to win, fighter B 60% fighter and then fighter C has 45% chance then according to the bookie odds you only have a 16,2% chance of it hitting. But if you cap them at 70%, 70% and lets say 60% then your perceived chance of it hitting is then 29,4%.

Thats still very low. But with a decent edge at 13.2%, but you should probably deduct a few percentages as we´re probably not 100% spot on, and if we still have value after deducting maybe 5%, then we can go ahead. But already based on this you can see it gets so risky due to you now have 3 fighters, and if you´re not spot on about all 3. You´re in big potential trouble, with a low hit chance. But long term is what matters - but how many truly would keep betting this after losing a few in a row? So you never get that data. This is why simulations are important.

I think parlays can be used to great effect, but there needs to be alot of thought put into it. A system, and many people put not enough thought into it. I also hear some say if you bet two 1.40 favorites you might as well parlay them together as its either profit or loss then..well..maybe, it depends - Its important not to look at it from event to event, but over longterm. So its a great idea to simulate this in spreadsheets, so you after a year have massive data on what would had happened if you had done this and that, and had bet X, Y, Z etc.

Lot of work? Yes. Worth it? Yes.

@Sadistics is one of the best I know with spreadsheet usage. Also showed me the best spreadsheet. I know other very good cappers who does this. So highly recommend anyone to just start small, if you´re not doing this at all.

Anyway what do everyone else think of parlays in general? Any strategies you like using?

 

[mkess101]

What is the concensus here for parlays in general? Do people feel it adds value, is it worth it or only under special conditions? Some people like adding a couple favs for dog odds, some oogs together, some one dog, many favs, some long multi parlays, and some mixed with props etc.

One thing I often hear is the debate whether or not a parlay can generate value. Because you get more units, even though of course its the same as if you had rolled over.
One thing parlays does do at least is it locks in the odds you got + can be good for limits.

One thing one can do is to simulate whether you had put them in a parlay or not. A parlay just like a fighter can be calculated, and often this really puts things into perspective. I´ve sometimes had parlays i thought were amazing but when i realize they only should hit maybe 30-40% of the time, suddenly you don´t want to put too much on it. I think people really lack this - they don´t calculate the percentage chance of that parlay hitting. Both the indicated hit chance, and what they believe, thats very important imo. Like if you have a fighter you recon has 60% chance to win with a another 60% fighter and then a 45% chance fighter then suddenly you only have a 16,2% chance of hitting it. But if you cap them at 70%, 70% and lets say 60% then your percieved chance of it hitting is 29,4%.

Thats still very low. But with a decent edge, but it gets so risky due to you now have 3 fighters, and if you´re not spot on about all 3. You´re in big potential trouble.

I think parlays can be used to great effect, but there needs to be alot of thought put into it. A system, and many people put not enough thought into it. I also hear some say if you bet two 1.40 favorite you might as well parlays them as its either profit or loss then..well..maybe, it depends - Its important not to look at it from event to event, but over longterm. So its a great idea to simulate this in spreadsheets, so you after a year have massive date on what would had happened if you had done this and that, and had bet X, Y, Z etc.

Lot of work? Yes. Worth it? Yes.

@Sadistics is one of the best I know with spreadsheet usage. Also showed me the best spreadsheet. I know other very good cappers who does this. So highly recommend anyone to just start small, if you´re not doing this at all.

Anyway what do everyone else think of parlays in general? Any strategies you like using?

Honestly, you've summed most of it up as well as I've seen. From a purely mathematical standpoint, there's no advantage as like you said you can just roll over your bets. But yes, locking in odds plays a role too. In non-MMA scenarios where events are happening simultaneously, that's a different story as well. As in, you are extremely confident in 2 baseball teams winning that are both -150 but play their games at the same time, so you cannot roll over your bet. But for MMA, that doesn't really come into play.

I'd again point to the psychology of things too. You may have a 3 leg parlay that you like. You think all 3 fighters have great value and want to maximize your profit on them. If you bet the first fight alone, then roll over to the second fight, are you going to bail from rolling it over on the third fight if you have all those winnings already banked? Some bettors will if that's the plan, some might get hesitant and only put some down. Or keep their pocketed winnings.

I don't think there are right or wrong answers. Like you said, for serious bettors they should do the research and track things so they have as much info as possible on how to bet. Capping fights is a big part of betting MMA, but not all of it and you've touched on the other side with bankroll management and choosing how to make plays.

For me, it's just for fun. The amounts I'm betting (esp now with limits) just don't matter near enough to go through that work. I bet parlays because they are fun. I've hit some good ones, I'm guessing I've probably profited from them over the years but I have no idea if it's more or less than if I'd played more singles, etc. But for those (like Sadistics) playing thousands, absolutely doing the tracking and figuring out what's working and what isn't is imperitive.

 

[bl0b]

Bonusses are a big part of your edge as a gambler, not using them would be a very stupid thing to do. However, not reading the fine print while using them, is an even stupider thing to do.

I've been gambling for 14 years straight, avidly, and I've never used a bonus for a reason. You're free to do what you like. It's just not for me. Bonuses are to entice you, not help you.

 

[bl0b]

I could give a fuck about my grammar on an online betting forum, but apparently that's a big concern to you. Good luck with that,,and noone is "white knighting" for anything dumb fuck.

Jesus, you have a small brain.

 

[TheFightGame]

I think if people put emotions aside usman wins 90% of the time....

 

[SolarSeiko]

I think if people put emotions aside usman wins 90% of the time....

I think that was the general opinion prior to the last minute replacement of Burns. Someone posted the odds and it barely moved, maybe .60 difference when masvidal was scheduled to fight usman the first time?

I think Masvidal smokes him and the whole 20lb thing, photo of him "eating" pizza thing is all just a big fuckin mind game. I think hes been in shape the entire time and Dustin's comments support that.

 

[TheFightGame]

I think that was the general opinion prior to the last minute replacement of Burns. Someone posted the odds and it barely moved, maybe .60 difference when masvidal was scheduled to fight usman the first time?

I think Masvidal smokes him and the whole 20lb thing, photo of him "eating" pizza thing is all just a big fuckin mind game. I think hes been in shape the entire time and Dustin's comments support that.

I agree with this assertion that masvidal pretty much in fight shape.

My heart tells me usman gonna be usman and clinch against cage, get takedown gnp repeat

My mind tells me he might really try and test his hands longer than he should because of his ego and get put to sleep

 

[LEMONZEST]

You had nunes vs Spencer where nunes at one point was as low as -400. That’s incredible value. I had nunes capped at about -2400. I saw very few scenarios in which Spencer would win.

I see very few scenarios at which Pvz beats ribas. Not as slim as Spencer vs nunes, but I’d be willing to bet $500 at -750.

if you have some kind of rule against chalk, that’s understandable, but when talking about value and implied probability, -750 really isn’t that much of a stretch.

As a rule paying juice in WMMA is a trap. The exception is for the very elite fighters in their prime such as Nunes. IMO Ribas hasn't earned my respect enough. So I guess I would say the line is justified but that doesn't mean I am betting it, if that makes sense.

 

[usernamee]

I can’t believe that’s legal. Couldn’t a fighter bet on themselves to win by decision and purposely not finish a sub or rise up for ground and pound?

When Michael Jackson beat CM Punk I was 100% certain that MJ had bet on himself to win via DEC

 

[LEMONZEST]

I might have missed it somewhere in the thread, but does anyone have a lean one way or the other on the Tybura/Grishin fight?

My only thought is that these big boys are not going to look good fighting in a very hot environment.

 

[ill800]

As a rule paying juice in WMMA is a trap. The exception is for the very elite fighters in their prime such as Nunes. IMO Ribas hasn't earned my respect enough. So I guess I would say the line is justified but that doesn't mean I am betting it, if that makes sense.

Completely understandable, paying that kind of juice for someone who hasn’t proven themselves as elite as nunes and shev probably not a great idea.

I don’t even know if Paige wants to fight anymore. She’s already seen she can make more money on Instagram. She’s been training in a garage for multiple years, long layoff, arm hasn’t recovered and she was regressing before the layoff.

 

[ill800]

My only thought is that these big boys are not going to look good fighting in a very hot environment.

I liked tybura decision at +215

I see no reason why he can’t take grishim down or control him against the cage for extended periods of time

Tybura seemed to remember where his bread and butter was in his last fight