UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

[Sadistics]

I really like the Masvidal/Usman o4.5 at + money.

I have a hard time seeing Usman finishing Masvidal. In the rare occurrence it does happen, I think it'll be a late stoppage TKO where the over still might possibly hit. Can't really see Usman subbing him... and although I guess it's slightly (very slightly) possible that Usman drops him on the feet and wins by follow up GNP, I can't really see that happening either. Discounting Usman's 1st UFC win over Hassan, he has hit the over 9 out of 10 times. Even counting that, he has hit the over 9 out of 11 times which is still a great stat.

If there is a finish, I think it'll be by Masvidal. However, I also think it's unlikely. Like I said with Usman, I can't really see Masvidal subbing him... Jorge's striking is legit and there's a chance he does drop/KO Usman, but man Usman has such a giant head and good punch resistance that I'm having a hard time seeing it happen. If it does, it's probably off a counter that Usman doesn't see coming.

Anywho, I think the over 4.5/ GTD lines should be -200 or over

Long time Jae! Good to see you back, however brief your stay may be

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Long time Jae! Good to see you back, however brief your stay may be

Hey Sadistics! Thanks brother, glad to see that you have been absolutely slaughtering the bookies! I can't make any promises, but I'll definitely try to drop some input on a relatively consistent basis

 

[bl0b]

You keep saying dumb shit and then accusing me of being the dumb one, truly amazing. You're special.

Well I'm fine with that, because you're an idiot...and I feel nothing when an idiot gets confused and calls me names.

It's really too easy bud.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

I really like the Masvidal/Usman o4.5 at + money.

I have a hard time seeing Usman finishing Masvidal. In the rare occurrence it does happen, I think it'll be a late stoppage TKO where the over still might possibly hit. Can't really see Usman subbing him... and although I guess it's slightly (very slightly) possible that Usman drops him on the feet and wins by follow up GNP, I can't really see that happening either. Discounting Usman's 1st UFC win over Hassan, he has hit the over 9 out of 10 times. Even counting that, he has hit the over 9 out of 11 times which is still a great stat.

If there is a finish, I think it'll be by Masvidal. However, I also think it's unlikely. Like I said with Usman, I can't really see Masvidal subbing him... Jorge's striking is legit and there's a chance he does drop/KO Usman, but man Usman has such a giant head and good punch resistance that I'm having a hard time seeing it happen. If it does, it's probably off a counter that Usman doesn't see coming.

Anywho, I think the over 4.5/ GTD lines should be -200 or over

Great post. Excellent points. I think a potential bet you may like, since if it goes on for a long time, it should favor Usman heavily, as we saw masvidal already tire in round 3 vs diaz, a potential bet I really like myself is Usman round 4,5, dec. +120.
Covers a late stoppage and prefer that to the ML. Doubt Masvidal will come back so late if it goes over 4.5.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

I think I’m most confident in Volkanovski getting the W again than any other bet besides maybe Aldo v Yan over 2.5.

I’ve rewatched Max vs Volk 5 times now (twice in a row yesterday) and I’ve come to the conclusion that we will see something similar again. Volk is too strong, too well conditioned and has the answer to every problem Max gives him. Max doesn’t Check leg kicks and will not be able to pick up that skill over the last few months so Volk will throw and land them against

Max had very little to no success from southpaw Which is why he changes back to orthodox and continues to let his leg get chewed up in the 3rd or 4th.

Volk only started to fade somewhat in round 5 but he still had power in his hands to back up Max occasionally. One judge scored the fight 50-45 for Volk. At -200 I’ll be dropping $100 on Volk at least.

 

[Sono07]

I want to bet Dos Santos at dog odds but he isn’t going to wrestle Salikhov, is he?

Even if he does it might not work. Most of his TD's are opportunity based. Salikhov is a sharpshooter and usual doesn't over commit with his strikes. Dos Antos clinch work doesn't seem very active either getting broken up by the ref twice and reversed his last fight.

Both men love kicking at range but I think this favors Muslim. He showed great kick catching vs Staropoli that may set up his own TD's and GNP. Just my two cents though it could be a very close fight wherever it goes.

 

[carolinagrapple]

I'm really feeling usman, yan, oezdemir and volk. Thinking about four $100 round Robbins for a risk of $400. If one sh*ts the bed, your max losing $78 but i really think they all roll which would get you a $1028 profit..

$100 each on:
Usman yan Volkin $322
Usman yan oezdemir $363
Usman volk ozdemir $363
Yan volk oezdemir $380

Who lets me down? I really can't see 2 of these 4 losing

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Usman could let you down.

 

[Everygoodnametook]

I'm really feeling usman, yan, oezdemir and volk. Thinking about four $100 round Robbins for a risk of $400. If one sh*ts the bed, your max losing $78 but i really think they all roll which would get you a $1028 profit..

$100 each on:
Usman yan Volkin $322
Usman yan oezdemir $363
Usman volk ozdemir $363
Yan volk oezdemir $380

Who lets me down? I really can't see 2 of these 4 losing

stupid question but how does round robin work

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Great post. Excellent points. I think a potential bet you may like, since if it goes on for a long time, it should favor Usman heavily, as we saw masvidal already tire in round 3 vs diaz, a potential bet I really like myself is Usman round 4,5, dec. +120.
Covers a late stoppage and prefer that to the ML. Doubt Masvidal will come back so late if it goes over 4.5.

Appreciated.

I do like that bet of yours, but I do not have access to it. Also, although it's a small chance, the over does count a Masvidal decision (and a late 5th round finish which like you implied is very unlikely). It's obviously unlikely, but I don't think Masvidal decision is too farfetched. I can see 2 scenarios where A. Usman is overly willing to strike and gets edged out over 5 rounds or B. Masvidal being able to stuff his takedowns and win on the feet. Like I said, they are obviously unlikely, but they are possible.

However, I have thought about it already and probably will end up playing Usman rounds 4&5, so we will pretty much have the same bets on the fight.

 

[carolinagrapple]

stupid question but how does round robin work

No worries. Round robin means choose 3 or more legs for a parlay and you put the same amount of each leg. Each bet will be missing one of the legs so for example a 3 team round robbin would look like:

1) Teams A and B
2) Teams A and C
3) Teams C and B

The sports book will put all the bets in for you if you tell them how much per bet

 

[mkess101]

stupid question but how does round robin work

Easier than typing out an explanation. Here's one I just did so I could show you (I only risked a total of $5.50 on it LOL, 11 bets at $.50 each--just wanted to do one to show you. And hey, maybe I get lucky...)

 

[burge13]

Tybura sub +1800. Fighting short notice guy, he's going to grapple. Maxim has a few sub losses, Tybura a few sub wins

Is it 'that' unlikely?

 

[theTKDguy]

Aldo's only ptv is ko/tko am i right? He's low volume. 5.50 is nice.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Petyr Yan by sub is +2200
That’s never happening right?
He has one guillotine victory in 2015

 

[OutRun]

gonna start watching tape right now like the truant kid who waits until the night before to start his paper

 

[TheFightGame]

Sorry to talk little bit off topic...

Aldo do have cardio issues. And I finally think I know where they stem from. He is a hair trigger counter puncher. Which is exhausting if you think about it. You are constantly one tight, coiled spring, ready to unleash when you see even a half of oppening. McGregor is more or less the same. He's more crafty with it, and more dangerous, but he's on that hair trigger too. Relies on speed and reflexes. Speed and reflexes won't be as sharp past the 2nd round. And really past the 1st, if we talk fighting good guys. Because you can KO bad opposition even if you get little bit slower, but top guys - not so much.

These points are fair, but the film shows aldo fighting moraes who we arent even sure Yan is better than, and appearing to have cardio to go another 2. he seemed fine vs volk as well.

Is yans pace too much ?

 

[mkess101]

Are any of you lunatics gonna actually tape and cap all the fights for the next 3 cards that are taking place over 8 days?

I'm not even gonna get to taping all the fights for Saturday's card. Not even close. For sure not Melo/Rosa, Henry/Amirkhani, or Grant/Day. Iffy on Zhumagolov/Paiva too. I bet Tybura decision without taping that fight at all, just going off memory.

I cannot imagine I'm gonna get to much tape at all for the Wed card.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Are any of you lunatics gonna actually tape and cap all the fights for the next 3 cards that are taking place over 8 days?

Who has time for that shit.

 

[Card]