UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

Three fights of his watched, three fights where Zhalgas Zhumagulov gets clowned on and then receives an inexplicable nod from the judges. He's probably an asset of the Kazakh mafia.
 
matthew55 said:
@Sadistics I'd like to get your thoughts on Oezdemir and Day seeings how they're your biggest bets. How do you see them playing out? I've never liked Oezdemir but Jiri looks like a can crusher, but he also might have freaky power, not sure. I've already got Day, but not super convinced on him either.
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Rebel Lion covered pretty much everything I was gonna say on Jiri/Volkan. I'd like Volkan to remove the lead leg early, taking away Jiris power and main win condition. Jiri is real heavy on it with a wide stance, doesn't ever check or really counter.

Day/Grant won't be close on the feet, and will get worse for Grant the later it goes. Day's TDD has looked much improved since DWCS, and Grants overall grappling has been mediocre, but if Grant were to win it would be through top control.
 
OutRun said:
Forgive me, I just started reading through this thread so I'm replying to your old ass comment as if it's fresh maybe somebody already pointed this out.

Here's what's bothering me, these YouTube motherfuckers I listen to also said, like you did, that Zhumagulov was definitely the superior grappler and was most likely going to win vs Paiva. But when I watched tape on Zhumagulov he was far from a good grappler, he was actually helpless for minutes at a time, being thoroughly controlled, and then gifted these baffling decisions.

What was it you saw in the first place that made you think he was a great grappler or wrestler?
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I’m not really sure. Maybe because he was from Kazakhstan and looks like he can grapple lol.

But I quickly realized his wrestling/grappling was pretty awful and walked that comment back.
 
Sadistics said:
Rebel Lion covered pretty much everything I was gonna say on Jiri/Volkan. I'd like Volkan to remove the lead leg early, taking away Jiris power and main win condition. Jiri is real heavy on it with a wide stance, doesn't ever check or really counter.

Day/Grant won't be close on the feet, and will get worse for Grant the later it goes. Day's TDD has looked much improved since DWCS, and Grants overall grappling has been mediocre, but if Grant were to win it would be through top control.
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much appreciated
 
ill800 said:
I’m not really sure. Maybe because he was from Kazakhstan and looks like he can grapple lol.

But I quickly realized his wrestling/grappling was pretty awful and walked that comment back.
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Devil's Advocate: The grappling of his opponents has been obscenely high standard (Tagir Ulanbekov is Khabib's training partner and has been forever, Ali Bagautinov has been known for elite wrestling)

What's more notable is that Russia are crazy forward thinking with how they adjust to rule changes. In the sport of Trampoline, they started adapting the FIG 2021-2024 ruleset in their internal competitions this year. Although Zhumagulov got taken down and pushed against the fence in every fight, he never actually took damage in these areas, was just kind of held there. He even got off his own elbows from the bottom. Maybe he was gifted decisions for being Kazakh, but more likely he got the nod because they weighted damage extremely heavily as the new unified rules of MMA suggest it should be
 
Tirimasuperman said:
I'm going to try to do so tonight (getting my wisdom teeth out the day before the Kattar v Ige card, so need to plan in advance)

With that said, I'm also fucking abysmal at MMA betting and way too good at rationalising why fighters I like personally will win, so take what I say with a grain of salt
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Wisdom teeth out? Damn...I really am the old man around here haha!

I'm surprised to hear you say that you're bad at MMA betting. When you comment on fights and fighters here, you have good insight from what I've read.

But what you say about letting personal biases affect bets is true. I did it in the past, and I have to consciously recognize my fanboyism about certain guys to make sure it doesn't color my betting.

For example if the next fight is Tony vs Poirier, my heart is gonna hold out hope that Tony's fight vs Justin was a bad night, the extra weight cut hurt him, etc. When in reality, I think Tony's age is just catching up to him at the highest level of the game. He can still beat plenty of guys, but I think Dustin does what Justin did to him at this point.
 
mkess101 said:
Wisdom teeth out? Damn...I really am the old man around here haha!

I'm surprised to hear you say that you're bad at MMA betting. When you comment on fights and fighters here, you have good insight from what I've read.

But what you say about letting personal biases affect bets is true. I did it in the past, and I have to consciously recognize my fanboyism about certain guys to make sure it doesn't color my betting.

For example if the next fight is Tony vs Poirier, my heart is gonna hold out hope that Tony's fight vs Justin was a bad night, the extra weight cut hurt him, etc. When in reality, I think Tony's age is just catching up to him at the highest level of the game. He can still beat plenty of guys, but I think Dustin does what Justin did to him at this point.
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Funny enough the more I think about it, the more I realise it's less rationalising fighters I like winning and more rationalising fighters I don't like losing

Like despite obvious red flags I convinced myself Oskar Piechota was still a high level fighter, but I think it was just as much that I'd decided Marc-Andre Barriault was dogshit and as a result I'd fade him at every opportunity. Can feel myself doing this with Grant Dawson and Meatball Molly too, realistically the pricing on Dawson is probably a lot closer to accurate than I'd like to believe it is (still feel like the 13.0 SUB line on Taila Santos v Meatball Molly is absolutely fucking ridiculous though)
 
Martialbeef said:
Aldo looks solid.
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Got some seats left on the Aldo train brother.

tenor.gif
 
Oh for fucks sake. Usman down to -230 now

I bet on Usman at -270, thinking he'd get to -300 in a hurry and be -350 by fight night

I underestimated the idiots all betting on Masvidal because of his attitude, and in return, became the idiot myself
 
Buying out of Masvidal and Holloway action for a small loss.

<{chips}>
 
HockeyBjj said:
Oh for fucks sake. Usman down to -230 now

I bet on Usman at -270, thinking he'd get to -300 in a hurry and be -350 by fight night

I underestimated the idiots all betting on Masvidal because of his attitude, and in return, became the idiot myself
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A great skill indeed to develope. Both in financial stock markets and in betting. Something that perhaps is overvalued, may still continue to rise, and thus there is still profit to be gained. It is indeed very hard to sometimes wait when you feel a line is great. A potential compromise, could be to bet half now, then half later, or whatever ratio you like. Potentially on sites where you can buy out, and then keep track of the line multiple times a day so you´re ready to hit it. I bet around half of mine of Usman or so. The best example of this I learned was when Roxanne Modaferri was +500 vs Maycee and I was in shock, then ended up closing my bets and kept track of the line movement and starting slowly hitting it to capitalize in case a big bettor or more sharps would hit, and got +700 in the end.

For Usman I think the same can be done now but wait too long and we may see a few hours before fight time that Usman is played down heavily. You could potentially perhaps if you can´t close your bet, bet on masvidal, and then keep track of the line and hit usman if you think the line will get even better for you - that could fix some of it, but a bit risky.
 
Not saying he won't win but Aldo looked pretty sluggish to me. Small confidence increase on Yan. If the fight doesn't end early I think rounds 3, 4 and 5 won't go well for Jose.
 
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