Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion -- 2021 and Beyond

wtf... the Bucs challenged that TD play in the 2nd quarter...

Great... I just lost my coaches challenge when it seemed clear it wasn't a TD.

Edit: KC still leads the kickoff return with 41 yards.
 
Bucs lead 14-3. The spread is only Bucs -4.5 with the Chiefs about to get the ball in Q2.

Total opened at 55 and is currently 52.5
 
Anyone betting the Chiefs live at +150?

I'm not an nfl guy, but it seems like Chiefs will get hot at some point

edit - now +280
 
Last edited:
I added: Kansas City Chiefs 3rd Quarter Over 3½

I want to say that is free money, but then again, I have seen strange things before. Looks very good, though.

They get the second-half kick-off.
 
I want to say that is free money, but then again, I have seen strange things before. Looks very good, though.

They get the second-half kick-off.
If the NFL is rigged like we all think it is, the Chiefs should have no problem covering O3.5 points in the 3rd quarter.
 
grabbed bucs -8.5 live to supplement my ML's, chiefs are dumpster bins
 
It probably wouldn't matter in this game, but the refs really do give Brady's teams every call. It's amazing, they do it in an obvious way and barely try to hide it.

They did it 2 weeks ago and gifted Tampa the win vs the Packers, and they have thrown nonstop flags on KC tonight and basically none on TB.
 
dunno what's wrong with me many ufc events and today with bucs i don't go big enough when i feel confident, i'm losing out on too much profits because of this
 
It probably wouldn't matter in this game, but the refs really do give Brady's teams every call. It's amazing, they do it in an obvious way and barely try to hide it.

They did it 2 weeks ago and gifted Tampa the win vs the Packers, and they have thrown nonstop flags on KC tonight and basically none on TB.

I’m on KC and I only saw one gifted flag and one questionable one
 
I’m on KC and I only saw one gifted flag and one questionable one

It's not that most of those aren't penalties, it's that TB does the exact same thing and the refs sit there like drooling idiots and never call it.

Last week vs the Packers, the refs let the TB secondary mug the Packer receivers all game (including a blatantly obvious jersey grab PI on that key interception late in the 2nd quarter) but then throw the flag on GB on the huge play at the end of the game. It's just amazing, not sure if Brady is some mind control wizard or what LMAO.
 
Welp, that Super Bowl was actually the worst I've seen in many years. Lost some small bets, but it actually felt like a waste of time to watch.

Maybe I would think different if I was on Tampa Bay ML/point spread instead of betting player props, but even with UFC I can tell if a fight is boring when I bet it.
 
added -16.5 spread live in 4th q cause i was raging about not making enough monies on this free game, another ez night in the office.
Why aren't chiefs kneeling after 2 min warning wtf?? I'm glad mahomes got punished by interception that clown. Get schooled by the GOAT brady.
 
It probably wouldn't matter in this game, but the refs really do give Brady's teams every call. It's amazing, they do it in an obvious way and barely try to hide it.

They did it 2 weeks ago and gifted Tampa the win vs the Packers, and they have thrown nonstop flags on KC tonight and basically none on TB.
Big time momentum shifts. Most of the money was on the chiefs coincidentally
 
The vast majority of my tennis bets are live ones, since there are a range of performances from players, and it's easier when you can see how they're looking on a particular day. However, I decided to play the Australian Open futures for the women's side, putting 0.3u on Sabalenka at +1000 and 0.3u on Swiatek at +1000.

These aren't exactly dark horses; Sabalenka is riding a 15-match winning streak, has won 3 tournaments, all hard courts, in a row, and is going to be 7th in the rankings after the Dubai results are counted. Swiatek has won the last Grand Slam tournament, the French Open, in dominant fashion and is only 19 years old.

I probably wouldn't be brave enough to play either at +500 or so, either, for the record, although there might still be value on one or both at those prices. For fun, let's look at some of the other future picks one can make;

Osaka +700

The biggest favorite, and understandably so. However, she has been unfocused and underperforming since backstabbing her then coach Sascha Bajin, who got her from 60-something in the world to #1 and 2 Grand Slams in a row in just a year. Since then, she has often performed more like a player circa 20th in the world rather than the #1 and didn't win a Grand Slam until the weak and underattended US Open last year.

At her best, she probably deserves to be the favorite, although I can still see huge hitters like Sabalenka and Swiatek defeating her. However, there is a good chance she will not be playing her best.

Serena Williams +800

HAHA. This is a name recognition pick and nothing more. She doesn't even have the fitness level to win 7 straight matches at a major, let alone her other flaws nowadays. Can't wait to fade the hell out of her when she plays a good opponent at the Australian, either.

Sofia Kenin +1000

Big fan of Kenin. In a sea of female players who are mentally weak and start screaming and getting hysterical on the court, utterly self-destructing, she is incredibly tough and fearless, playing her very best on the most crucial points and rising to the occasion at the biggest events. That makes her an attractive pre and live-bet, and she has made me a decent amount of money. Still, she is lacking a little strength and endurance, and it's not difficult to see a big hitter taking her out at some point.

Also, she is hard-countered by both Sabalenka and Swiatek, the two women I'm picking.

Bianca Andreescu +1200

My very first tennis bet was betting Andreescu at something like +260 to beat Serena Williams at the US Open, which she did, going on to win the tournament. At her best, she is excellent, and might be worth this price and even lower. Trouble is, she has been injured a long time and hasn't played since shortly after that US Open triumph in 2019.

What kind of shape and state is she in? It would be absolutely shocking if it were anything close to enough to win a slam.

Victoria Azarenka +1400

A great player who is still terrific on certain matches. However, her consistency isn't quite there anymore. Hard to see her winning 7 matches in a row and not flagging against some of the more dangerous opponents later in the tournament.

Karolina Pliskova +1600

HAHA. This goddamn bum lost me 2u at evens after losing the first set to No. 300 qualifier Anastasia Gasanova. She moves like a pregnant elephant on ice and her consistency comes and goes. Yes, she hits hard, but there is a reason she has never come close to winning a slam and never will. This is an equally bad bet as Serena.

Cori Gauff +2000

And this one might be as bad as those two! Another pure name recongition pick. One can reasonably debate her future potential, but right now, she is ranked 48th in the world and plays like it. Her serve was an absolute disaster last year and her playing style of getting tons of balls back and not going for much is predicated on trying to get her chances of beating a top 20 opponent to 50/50.

How in the world is she supposed to win a Grand Slam?

Dayana Yastremska +3300

A bold pick considering she is presently banned from tennis for steroid usage.

For reference, here is the totally natty Maria Sakkari (availabe at +5000!);

https://www.tennisworldusa.org/imge/81983/maria-sakkari-withdraws-from-seoul-open.jpg

Now here is the dirty steroid cheat Yastremska;

https://www.tennisnet.com/fileadmin/_processed_/1/a/csm_yastremska_adriatour_f69f86287f.jpg

Elise Mertens +4000

A straight-up better pick than many of the ones ahead of her, at least Yastremska and Gauff, and at much higher numbers. She needs a lot of things to go right for her to win, especially since she has bad match-ups against a number of the world elite (Azarenka crushes her again and again), but she has the consistency and durability to reliably beat the weaker players and get deep in a tournament. If you want to bet on more of a long shot, this might be it.

May as well post an update after the first 2 rounds are mostly complete!

My two plays, Sabalenka and Swiatek, have both been victorious thus far. Amusingly, both could be had at even better than +1000 odds closer to the Australian, as both looked disappointing and lost early in their pre-Australian Open appearances in Melbourne. Personally, I wasn't concerned; they got more rest than players who did better and had to play more matches!

Sabalenka has looked good, and just defeated a solid, decent opponent in Kasatkina in round 2. Swiatek destroyed a fairly tough Round 1 foe in Rus and then absolutely humiliated a stern test in Giorgi. Swiatek is playing with a brand-new racket AND traveling without her sports psychologist, who she says is the third-closest person in her life after her father and sister, but she is talented enough to figure it out. Hey, at least Swiatek is self-aware to know she needs a shrink, which is also why she is one of the more mentally stable players out there, despite being only 19.

Lest you think all the popular futures picks have gotten through, former Grand Slam champions Andeescu at +1200 and Azarenka at +1400 are already out.

Azarenka did well in the pre-Australian tournament but had to pull out due to injury. That may have played a factor when she lost to a pretty good opponent in Jessica Pegula, a match that had no business being in Round 1, but hey, that's rigged tournament draws for you.

Andreescu's exit in Round 2 is far more shameful. After looking like shit in Round 1 and barely getting through, she was walloped by Su-Wei Hsieh, a player who looks like a malnourished coolie and is one of the absolute weakest players on tour. I haven't played tennis seriously in almost 20 years, but even as a rail-thin 14 year old I could hit harder serves than Hsieh does.

However, I was rooting for Hsieh. Why? Because Andreescu looked woefully fat and out-of-shape for a supposed professional athlete, moved like a pregnant elephant, and generally looked like she did little training in her 15 months off. She deserved to lose.

Another top 10, Petra Kvitava, although I didn't mention her, was +1200 and somehow lost to fucking Sorana Cirstea in Round 2 while looking like she was dying from heat exhaustion in Round 2, giving me awful flashbacks of fellow Czech and top 10 Karolina Pliskova. What the hell is it with 6 foot tall Czech women and lousy conditioning?

Johanna Konta, who is 12th in the world (higher than Swiatek, actually!) and like +2000 pre-tournament, also bowed out due to injury midway through Round 1, but seriously, who the hell expected anything from her?

In terms of favorites, Osaka looked mediocre in the pre-Australian Open tournament before withdrawing, but was fantastic in demolishing a good opponent in Pavlyuchenkova in Round 1. (Another match that had no business being so early) Her mental concentration comes and goes, but she might be motivated now.

Local Aussie favorite Ash Barty was probably the most impressive before the Open, winning her tournament and looking very strong, and then scored a perfect double bagel, 6-0 6-0 against someone named Kovinic in Round 1. Not only is she playing at her very best, but being the hometown hero, she has a favorable draw, facing a relative cream puff in Round 2, Daria Gavrilova.

The super long-shot I recommended, Elise Mertens, has also done well, winning her own pre-Australian Open tournament (Osaka withdrew right before playing her, where she was only a small favorite), shortening her future odds from +4000 to +2500 if I recall correctly, then destroying a talented, dangerous young player in Leylah Fernandez in Round 1.

Again, she isn't amazing or overwhelming, but there is something to be said for consistency in a sport where damn near everyone lacks it.
 
Back
Top